Sgt. Ear Ache
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Tomorrow Dec 25th 2021, is a very big day! James Webb Scope is headed out.
- Thread starter JRS
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Given the apparent evidence that single-cell life arose on earth rather early in the process, I think a position that 'life' itself is rare rather difficult to accept.
Now, complex, intelligent life is a different matter. My understanding is that there were many aborted evolutionary 'attempts' at more complex arrangements that didn't pan out for a rather long time. And, even after complex lifeforms appeared, it was hundreds of millions of years before we finally seem to have hit on 'intelligent'. So, a universe in which 'life' is common but 'intelligent life' is rare seems very plausible.
However, given the sheer scale of the universe I'm entirely convinced that it's out there. Whether there are any other examples in our galaxy is a more interesting question - I'd personally guess 'yes', but I also suspect that it will be a very very long time if ever before we're able to verify that.
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When I see the images from James Webb and listen to the NASA scientists, I think wow we are an intelligent species. On the other hand, when I see images of the Ukraine Russian war, the various crazy conspiracy theories, and supposedly intelligent people demeaning science and scientists, I am not so sure. The latter makes me sad. The former makes me hope.
I bet Rob Watts could still hear that!
I agree that simple life is pretty common. "Intelligent", technological life is certainly a lot rarer. The limited evidence so far makes that quite apparent given SETI, etc. Indeed perhaps we are the only example in our galaxy: what are the implications of such rarity?
I know people of extreme religious view who are please with this and think it's correct because we, the human race, are a unique creation of God. OTOH, the rest of should not be happy about it at all since it implies that intelligent life is rare mostly because it is extremely precarious or short-lived on account of many natural and, perhaps, self-generated hazards.
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Welcome to the dichotomous nature of human species. As a collective, we could achieve wonders, but we let ourselves down with menial fallacies of greed, power, and intolerance.
I don't doubt that there are multiple intelligently inhabited planets out there. But given that we'll likely wipe ourselves out in less than 200 years since the invention of radio, the chances of ever being in the right place at the right time to with a suitable level of technology to communicate with them becomes infinitesimally small.
Even smaller than usb cables making a measurable difference.
Even smaller than usb cables making a measurable difference.
Sgt. Ear Ache
Major Contributor
I don't doubt that there are multiple intelligently inhabited planets out there. But given that we'll likely wipe ourselves out in less than 200 years since the invention of radio, the chances of ever being in the right place at the right time to with a suitable level of technology to communicate with them becomes infinitesimally small.
Even smaller than usb cables making a measurable difference.
I doubt we'll ever actually communicate. All I'm really interested in is the tell-tale signs. Techno signatures something like Tabby's Star but with ever less possible natural explanations thanks to more and more detailed data. I'm just hoping for some weird stuff that defies explanation.
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So how many more Rob Watts are out there to hear at least to -300 db?
The problem as I see it is that we don't have any clue how a self-replicating molecule arose. We know that RNA can carry information and also be enzymatic (as opposed to DNA that only carry information). In the primordial soup, there were molecules as those needed for making RNA (and DNA). The problems are many. We need a soup that is "clean" from other reactive molecules and variants (and our nucleosides and bases where very rare compared to other reactive molecules in this soup), and a catalyst that specifically puts together a pure random sequence of what we call RNA today, and with the correct sequence order (5'-3'). The probability of spontaneous creating such molecules of sufficient length is extremely low. Second, if you by chance happened to get a sequence of say 50 nucleotides, connected in the correct orientation, you must get at least one or two that has a catalytic function, specifically replicating itself and at the same time maintaining the information for it, and being stable (RNA is very unstable). According to some studies you would need ≈10^50 such RNA molecules that together exceed the mass of earth.
So I am not sure you can just from the number of putative earth-like planets and that it occurred early on out planet estimate that life must be abundant at a given time-point. I think the early adopted life on earth is misleading us. We can only for sure know that it has happened once, and that it probably was several other events (e.g. metal hailstorms, hydrogen atmospheres) happening in the exact correct order to give us self replicating molecules from the soup. Just being a the ideal primordial soup is far from enough.
Science | AAAS
Which is a really good example of how db’s can take incomprehensibly small (or large) numbers, and make them look inconsequential.
JSmith
Master Contributor
You know what is even less likely than intelligent life emerging?
That that incredibly low probability combined with the vast (and exact) number of planets in the universe, resulted in that happenstance occurring exactly once.
It feels you almost have to believe in a creator God interested in only us - or accept that there are probably many such species.
That that incredibly low probability combined with the vast (and exact) number of planets in the universe, resulted in that happenstance occurring exactly once.
It feels you almost have to believe in a creator God interested in only us - or accept that there are probably many such species.
Here is a thought that bends the mind.
As an object gets closer and closer to speed of light, our time relative to it becomes slower and slower (Einstein's theory of relativity). A photon travels at speed of light (since it has no mass) meaning its time is infinitely faster than ours. As such, if the photon had a mind of its own, it would perceive getting to us instantaneously even if it travelled billions of years! The Universe sure is a strange place....
As an object gets closer and closer to speed of light, our time relative to it becomes slower and slower (Einstein's theory of relativity). A photon travels at speed of light (since it has no mass) meaning its time is infinitely faster than ours. As such, if the photon had a mind of its own, it would perceive getting to us instantaneously even if it travelled billions of years! The Universe sure is a strange place....
There was a young lady named Bright
Whose speed was far faster than light;
She set out one day
In a relative way
And returned on the previous night.
Whose speed was far faster than light;
She set out one day
In a relative way
And returned on the previous night.
To late @danadm made already a good joke out of it.
Tomorrow Dec 25th 2021, is a very big day! James Webb Scope is headed out.
If you go to about the 1:28 mark in this vid and pause it full screen you can see the same image from JWST on the left and Hubble on the right. Keep in mind the Hubble shot is about a 2 week exposure while the Webb image was about 12 hours.
www.audiosciencereview.com
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The day we actually communicate or get the tell-tale sign of an intelligent alien species or being, would be a cataclysmic day for the human species. The theological beliefs of creationism will go out the window, and this will spur irrational fears and behaviors that'll result in chaos.
Sgt. Ear Ache
Major Contributor
or nothing will happen. lol.
I don't really buy the whole "cataclysmic day" theory if we somehow prove there's other intelligence out there. I suspect the "true believers" will fairly quickly find a way to fold the new reality into their mythology (or just deny it's reality at all). I mean there's already lots and lots of reason to doubt the reality of religious beliefs and yet they continue to prosper...all you have to do is read the comments on the many JWST vids on youtube to see how it goes. "hahaha you people think this is a real image of space? This is a nice Photoshop image someone made There's no telescope out there taking pictures for us!"
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