Interesting analysys of CFR/IFR
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
Emerging evidence suggests many more people are infected. than tested. In Vo Italy, at the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed, about 3%, had already been infected – most were completely asymptomatic.
We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.26%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease means an IFR of 0.26 is likely an overestimate. In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies between. 0.01% and 0.19%.
Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at larget, and misclassification of deaths we consider COVID-19 IFR lies somewhere between 0.1% and 0.26%.*