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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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maty

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El coronavirus se ceba en los barrios más pobres del área de Barcelona
[Spanish] https://www.elperiodico.com/es/soci...rios-mas-pobres-del-area-de-barcelona-7908928

Coronavirus is primed in the poorest neighborhoods of the Barcelona area
https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=&sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20200329/el-coronavirus-se-ceba-en-los-barrios-mas-pobres-del-area-de-barcelona-7908928

[ Focusing exclusively on the city of Barcelona, the Roquetes neighborhood, in Nou Barris, is the one with the highest positive rate (533 per 100,000 inhabitants) and the Sant Gervasi-Galvany area the least, with the 77 cases per 100,000.

For some time, professionals from the CAPs of the most affected neighborhoods of the city and the metropolitan area warned that the poor living conditions of their neighbors were incompatible with medical advice to take extreme hygiene measures, due to the precariousness of their homes. In addition, in these environments there are predominant professional profiles that are also incompatible with teleworking, many people working in supermarkets, factories or cleaning services, thus, confinement on too many occasions is a utopia... ]

http://aquas.gencat.cat/.content/IntegradorServeis/mapa_covid/atlas.html

covid-19-Barcelona-Sant-Gervasi-28032020.png



[ Viladecans, El Prat and Badalona

The interactive map of the Catalan Agency for Health Assessment and Quality (AQuAS) has been prepared with the test data obtained until five in the afternoon on Friday. The data refers to the samples made by the basic health units of the Ministry, and indicate that the highest infection rates per 100,000 inhabitants occur in Santa Margarida de Montbui (932.2)... ]

Some neighborhoods of Viladecans, with a prevalence of 708.8; El Prat de Llobregat, with 604.7, and Badalona, with 597.8 are also among the worst unemployed.
 
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pjug

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Yesterday, in the village nearest to where I live, two people died who will go towards the Covid-19 statistics.
One women who was 97 years old with no other reported health problems and one man 82 who had diabetes and heart problems.
Someone will make a judgment on cause of death. At 97 years old, old age would seem to be the underlying cause. A similar argument could be made for the man with the other health problems.
These are longstanding Catalan families. To help understand the way they live think of an extended Italian family.
The news of their deaths was given to the person I spoke with by their son who was out buying food.
None of the other members of either household were tested for Covid-19.
In the UK, I was shocked to learn that the NHS staff are not tested on a regular basis (preferably daily) for Covid-19. They only get tested when they show symptoms.
Where my daughter is in hospital the staff are not tested for Covid-19 either.
Measures like testing the people who care for the sick would seem like the most basic common sense.
How these types of cases are counted would seem to be an important consideration when trying to determine a death rate, but not much of a difference maker in determining policy. You want to compare to the flu; what makes you think there are not similar cases counted as flu deaths?
 
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andymok

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Shouldn't be so difficult if we really bother / care to look it up already.

(can do 1.75x, can start from 16:11)

It's never just about individuals. Things aggregate, so trouble does, and fear may be.
 

Shadrach

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If you're going to use CDC stats, use CDC stats...

Common flu US mortality rates:

2018-19 - 39.5 million illnesses 34,200 deaths - 0.087% death rate
2017-18 - 45 million illnesses 61,000 deaths - 0.136% death rate (revised from 79,000 initially reported which your source rounded up to 80,000)
2016-17 - 29 million illnesses & 38.000 deaths - 0.131% death rate

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

COVID-19 US mortality rates:

Current estimate is 1.63% (1.56-1.71)

Source: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

So COVID-19 is 12 times more deadly than the flu for the year you referenced.

It's the illnesses number we are trying to control. We don't want 45,000,000 people ill with COVID-19 (733,500 dead).

Martin
There is quite a variation in mortality rates.
The article explains why.
 

stunta

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This thread has stopped being useful. Its inundated with too many posts on stats from Spain (with all due respect maty, its a lot of posts - perhaps a separate thread tracking only Spain would be better) and now this comparison with flu which makes no sense.
 

Martin

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maty

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I suppose that what has been said about certain neighborhoods of Barcelona will also happen in big cities in the USA and other rich countries. It is also interesting to know how it evolves in Spain to know the percentages so that other countries can be more forward-looking.
 

RayDunzl

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Willem

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I found one of Maty's recent posts interesting, the one on social differences. Here too, and perhaps not surprisingly, something similar seems to be the case, even though these are only proxy data. As I mentioned before, the vast majority of Dutch corona patients on the intensive care are obese. Obesity is characteristic of the poor, so I would suspect the majority of patients to be from the poorer strata of society. Future research will be needed to validate this working hypothesis, but it may well be true.
Given greater social inequality in the US, would similar social differences also show in the US?
 

maxxevv

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El coronavirus se ceba en los barrios más pobres del área de Barcelona
[Spanish] https://www.elperiodico.com/es/soci...rios-mas-pobres-del-area-de-barcelona-7908928

Coronavirus is primed in the poorest neighborhoods of the Barcelona area
https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=&sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20200329/el-coronavirus-se-ceba-en-los-barrios-mas-pobres-del-area-de-barcelona-7908928

[ Focusing exclusively on the city of Barcelona, the Roquetes neighborhood, in Nou Barris, is the one with the highest positive rate (533 per 100,000 inhabitants) and the Sant Gervasi-Galvany area the least, with the 77 cases per 100,000.

For some time, professionals from the CAPs of the most affected neighborhoods of the city and the metropolitan area warned that the poor living conditions of their neighbors were incompatible with medical advice to take extreme hygiene measures, due to the precariousness of their homes. In addition, in these environments there are predominant professional profiles that are also incompatible with teleworking, many people working in supermarkets, factories or cleaning services, thus, confinement on too many occasions is a utopia... ]

http://aquas.gencat.cat/.content/IntegradorServeis/mapa_covid/atlas.html

View attachment 56168




[ Viladecans, El Prat and Badalona

The interactive map of the Catalan Agency for Health Assessment and Quality (AQuAS) has been prepared with the test data obtained until five in the afternoon on Friday. The data refers to the samples made by the basic health units of the Ministry, and indicate that the highest infection rates per 100,000 inhabitants occur in Santa Margarida de Montbui (932.2)... ]

Some neighborhoods of Viladecans, with a prevalence of 708.8; El Prat de Llobregat, with 604.7, and Badalona, with 597.8 are also among the worst unemployed.

Over in Hong Kong, I read that they were investigating the spread of the virus via sewage that had seeped through faulty pipes. ( @andymok did I read that correctly ? )
In China, they did some studies which showed that the virus manifests in fecal matter. And up to 4 weeks even after a person has recovered from the Covid-19.

Perhaps the Spanish authorities should pay some attention to that in that problematic locality.
 

Shadrach

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I find this panic buying behavior odder than toilet paper buying...

https://www.newsweek.com/baby-chick...-americans-panic-buy-feathery-friends-1494868

"According to the report, sales of baby chicks tend to rise during certain periods of uncertainty, such as stock market downturns and years in which presidential elections are being held."

Weird.

Martin
They will lay eggs eventually, or at least some will and they're edible.
I think some people may be looking at the longer term.:p
 

maty

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Over in Hong Kong, I read that they were investigating the spread of the virus via sewage that had seeped through faulty pipes. ( @andymok did I read that correctly ? )
In China, they did some studies which showed that the virus manifests in fecal matter. And up to 4 weeks even after a person has recovered from the Covid-19.

Perhaps the Spanish authorities should pay some attention to that in that problematic locality.

On this subject, Spain is one of the best countries, regardless of the wealth of the neighborhoods.

I suppose that one of the explanations is the greater use of public transport such as buses and, above all, the subway. And commuter trains.
 

maty

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maxxevv

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On this subject, Spain is one of the best countries, regardless of the wealth of the neighborhoods.

I suppose that one of the explanations is the greater use of public transport such as buses and, above all, the subway. And commuter trains.

Possibly.

But hygiene in a poor / poorly maintained neighbourhood/locality cannot be overlooked either.
 

graz_lag

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If you're going to use CDC stats, use CDC stats...

Common flu US mortality rates:

2018-19 - 39.5 million illnesses 34,200 deaths - 0.087% death rate
2017-18 - 45 million illnesses 61,000 deaths - 0.136% death rate (revised from 79,000 initially reported which your source rounded up to 80,000)
2016-17 - 29 million illnesses & 38.000 deaths - 0.131% death rate

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

COVID-19 US mortality rates:

Current estimate is 1.63% (1.56-1.71)

Source: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

So COVID-19 is 12 times more deadly than the flu for the year you referenced.

It's the illnesses number we are trying to control. We don't want 45,000,000 people ill with COVID-19 (733,500 dead).

Martin

... IHME’s analysis, based on observed death rates, estimates that over the next four months in the US, approximately 81,000 people will die from the virus. Estimates range between 38,000 and 162,000 US deaths ...

https://globalhealth.washington.edu...s-could-be-overwhelmed-second-week-april-ihme
http://www.healthdata.org/research-...-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
 
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andymok

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Over in Hong Kong, I read that they were investigating the spread of the virus via sewage that had seeped through faulty pipes. ( @andymok did I read that correctly ? )
In China, they did some studies which showed that the virus manifests in fecal matter. And up to 4 weeks even after a person has recovered from the Covid-19.

Perhaps the Spanish authorities should pay some attention to that in that problematic locality.

Correct

1. Sewage
2. Venting pipe
3. Anti-Syphon pipe
4. Trap

In Hong Kong, cases are (aerosolised) virus escape from Venting pipes and spread to the next doors; via leaking joints into the apartment.

In 2003 SARS cases were the dried traps.

Virus get aerosolised when flushed, pressure differences send them everywhere.


be8f16c29e1e499aa146ef11e5248691.png
ad33a49b616247e5a0871414c0c04b46.png
b7de0c42ae9b43b9a6123efa52af732d.png
 
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etc6849

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It seems the US government will lie to hide poor planning. They literally had months to stock pile basic things like face masks, but didn't and now want them all for those on the front line (which I understand now that they stupidly let a shortage occur).

However, if we all wore masks, this would greatly reduce the number of cases in the US. People can show no symptoms and still cause spread; imagine if those people were masks? Face masks are known to be highly effective at reducing spread when contagious people wear them for a virus such as this. All we hear from doctors and officials is that healthy people have no benefit from face masks. Wrong, we all would benefit if we required everyone to wear them.

Face masks also remind you not to touch your face and do stop water droplets. The countries who have beaten this virus, all seem to wear masks too. Are we really just hoping for herd immunity and willing to spend $6 trillion instead of making and distributing $1.50 face masks?!? Look at how many of the Asian countries beat this virus, they all wore face masks. For whatever reason, all the countries getting hammered by this right now don't wear face masks.

See below. This is a log plot for Czech Republic, note slope is decreasing. They recently added requirements for everyone to wear a face mask (3/2?).


Hong Kong also requires a face mask:


South Korea? Yep, they wear face masks and beat this virus too. I'm not going to include China because I don't trust their numbers, but Taiwan beat this virus and their government even took control of manufacturing face masks to ensure there were enough. The US government only knows how to print money and devalue my savings.

The reality is even with the counter measures being employed we are still having to build huge temporary hospitals , put corpses in massive temporary mortuaries the sheer mass of bodies is causing a logistical nightmare.
 

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MediumRare

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I suppose that what has been said about certain neighborhoods of Barcelona will also happen in big cities in the USA and other rich countries. It is also interesting to know how it evolves in Spain to know the percentages so that other countries can be more forward-looking.
I value all your posts tremendously. The quality of the insight, data, and graphics has been exceptional. Please continue as before.
 

graz_lag

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UK ... Engineering firms have said that the UK may not have enough ventilators when coronavirus cases reach their peak, the BBC reports.

The UK has just over 8,000 ventilators, but it is estimated the country will need 30,000 during the peak of the crisis, which is expected in two weeks’ time. Manufacturers have said they will be unable to meet that deadline ...
 
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