svart-hvitt
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This weekend, on February 10th, the Grammys are once again to be awarded to outstanding music productions.
I have followed the productions of 2L, Lindberg Lyd by Morten Lindberg, for about ten years now. And every year, Lindberg has been Grammy nominated, with 2008 as the only exception since 2007.
From 2007 to 2018, Lindberg has been nominated for a Grammy 32 times. Yet he has never won a Grammy Award.
What are the odds, being nominated 32 times without winning? It seems like there are 5 nominations every year in the categories that Lindberg take part in. So the probability of not winning once you are nominated is 80 percent. And reapeating that exercise 32 times, without winning, yields a 7 percent probability.
This year, 2L have two new nominations (http://www.2l.no/grammy/2L_GRAMMY-nominations-history.pdf). If Morten Lindberg doesn’t win this year, it reduces the probability of not winning in the coin-flipping contest from 7 to 5 percent (0.8^34=5%).
These calculations assume a fair coin.
However, is music a fair business? Are Grammy Awards a fair business?
Or is Grammy really showcasing everything that is wrong with music?
Could a hypothesis be that the nominations are fair, but the process of picking winners go through another process which is anything but fair?
Are Grammy Awards a fair coin?
I have followed the productions of 2L, Lindberg Lyd by Morten Lindberg, for about ten years now. And every year, Lindberg has been Grammy nominated, with 2008 as the only exception since 2007.
From 2007 to 2018, Lindberg has been nominated for a Grammy 32 times. Yet he has never won a Grammy Award.
What are the odds, being nominated 32 times without winning? It seems like there are 5 nominations every year in the categories that Lindberg take part in. So the probability of not winning once you are nominated is 80 percent. And reapeating that exercise 32 times, without winning, yields a 7 percent probability.
This year, 2L have two new nominations (http://www.2l.no/grammy/2L_GRAMMY-nominations-history.pdf). If Morten Lindberg doesn’t win this year, it reduces the probability of not winning in the coin-flipping contest from 7 to 5 percent (0.8^34=5%).
These calculations assume a fair coin.
However, is music a fair business? Are Grammy Awards a fair business?
Or is Grammy really showcasing everything that is wrong with music?
Could a hypothesis be that the nominations are fair, but the process of picking winners go through another process which is anything but fair?
Are Grammy Awards a fair coin?