- Thread Starter
- #881
It's (close to) impossible to precisely quantify that but here's an attempt to 'simplify' the question.As each day passes, and you remain uninfected, does your chance of becoming infected go up or down?
The are only two states "uninfected" and "infected" and the coin-flip probabilistic model can be applied. The longer you keep flipping "uninfected", the bigger the chances that the next flip will be "infected". This is of course not an accurate model but could be the baseline for all other models since it is ~independent of (all?) other factors.
In other words: unless you/somebody/something actively works on lowering the "infected" odds, they will keep increasing (fast).
Wearing a mask will lower the odds, a vaccine will be a huge (but only one-time) lowering, etc. One of the "best" scenarios I can think of is being on a spaceship that flies away from earth. The "infected" odds should actually decrease every day in that case (but still never reach zero).
Bottom line: if you want to avoid the "infected" flip, you/somebody/something must to do a lot of work. And keep doing it 'forever'.
P.S,
Not sure if "more work forever" is what you/everyone wanted to hear