Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

[Harmonie]

As each day passes, and you remain uninfected, does your chance of becoming infected go up or down?

Once infected, will you be immune ?
If yes, how long will that last ?
Once vaccinated, how long will the immune last ?
In other words, how often will you need to inject (cash) to get injected again ... ?

 

[North_Sky]

The US is not going to approve the use of a vaccine that has not been tested on US Citizens. So even if I wanted one, I don't see any way I could receive a dose unless there is a black market for them.

To answer your question, if any of them showed good results after Phase III trials, I would be interested (even Sputnik V). Until then, hellz no.

About a US vaccine by November 1st; everything is possible in this world (country) we live in with the people inside.

* Trust; this is something that takes more that a lifetime to master.
Short of that it's all about faith (no science here).

 

[North_Sky]

Once infected, will you be immune ?
If yes, how long will that last ?
Once vaccinated, how long will the immune last ?
In other words, how often will you need to inject (cash) to get injected again ... ?

1. Scientifically speaking him and nobody else can be 100% certain.
...More like 50/50 @ the very best, and if.

2. Same as above, for now.

3. It depends...Ray's age, health condition, climate change, next hurricane.

 

[Racheski]

Look at the Population of Japan.
The population density of Japan.
The percentage of elderly people in Japan.
The lack of Covid testing.
The lack of enforced lockdown.
The lack of PPE.

Ask why only around 1000 out of a population of 126 million have died from Covid.

It's actually pretty remarkable and not fully understood.

• The lack of testing is deflating the true number of cases, but not sure if this has significantly deflated the number of deaths since excess mortality in Japan this year is insignificant despite COVID19.
• Japanese are a very healthy nation. They have the longest life expectancy for a nation of their size on the planet. The healthier you are, the more likely you will recover from a severe COVID19 infection (all other conditions equal).
• Culture and Customs. Japanese people are used to wearing face masks during the winter, & generally do not have physical contact when greeting one another.

There are some biochemical hypothesis as well, but none are conclusive. This is the best article I could find on the subject:
https://www.embopress.org/doi/10.15252/emmm.202012481

 

[Harmonie]

@North_Sky
Once available, will you go straight ahead and get that (or any other) vaccine ?
No hesitation , whatsoever ? hmmm ?

I mean really no hesitation ?

Really ?

 

[Harmonie]

Look at the Population of Japan.
The population density of Japan.
The percentage of elderly people in Japan.
The lack of Covid testing.
The lack of enforced lockdown.
The lack of PPE.

Ask why only around 1000 out of a population of 126 million have died from Covid.

I somehow replied already.
Japanese are not like latin people.
They do not kiss each other 2, 3 or 4 times to great each other like in Paris and France.
They keep a social distance naturally.
They were a mask when they feel the slightest fever pointing it's nose ...

Different.

Now the percentage is indeed very small.

But Europe learned it's lesson and the death rate decreases significantly too.

 

[Racheski]

I somehow replied already.
Japanese are not like latin people.
They do not kiss each other 2, 3 or 4 times to great each other like in Paris and France.
They keep a social distance naturally.
They were a mask when they feel the slightest fever pointing it's nose ...

But this doesn't explain everything. There are no strict lockdowns anymore and folks are still cramming into trains during rush hour packed like sardines, so forget about social distancing.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...k-fear-of-new-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN23B0M3

 

[Racheski]

About a US vaccine by November 1st; everything is possible in this world (country) we live in with the people inside.

The chance of a US vaccine by November 1st available and distributed in somewhat large quantities is pretty much zero. This is what health experts have been saying for awhile, and this morning the chief vaccine adviser for Trump's Operation Warp Speed said it was “extremely unlikely but not impossible” that a vaccine could be available by the end of October. I wonder if he will still have his job in a couple of days.

 

[Vasr]

Not making a political statement but simply as an observer the push for Nov 1 deadline in the US is not necessarily to bring a real vaccine to market as it is to establish a "win" narrative for having solved the problem. The narrative can very well fall apart on Nov 4th but that isn't the point.

Hypothetically, if I were in Trump's shoes and mindset, I would set up the narrative just like it is done with faith-healing groups. Unverifiable reports of people getting cured, walking away from ventilators within 24 hours, testimonials from some select doctors, FDA forced to announce that they are "cautiously optimistic", media blitz on how US researchers were able to do better than any other country for nationalistic pride, etc. Most people won't understand that vaccines don't "cure" anyway.

I am certainly not expecting that I would be in a position to voluntarily opt for a vaccine before second half of 2021. I will wait a while to see if the early adopters turn blue after getting the vaccine.

 

[Racheski]

Not making a political statement but simply as an observer the push for Nov 1 deadline in the US is not necessarily to bring a real vaccine to market as it is to establish a "win" narrative for having solved the problem. The narrative can very well fall apart on Nov 4th but that isn't the point.

Hypothetically, if I were in Trump's shoes and mindset, I would set up the narrative just like it is done with faith-healing groups. Unverifiable reports of people getting cured, walking away from ventilators within 24 hours, testimonials from some select doctors, FDA forced to announce that they are "cautiously optimistic", media blitz on how US researchers were able to do better than any other country for nationalistic pride, etc. Most people won't understand that vaccines don't "cure" anyway.

Don't forget taking a page from Russia's playbook and announcing that Ivanka has taken a dose!

I will wait a while to see if the early adopters turn blue after getting the vaccine.

Racism against Smurfs will not be tolerated.

 

[Wes]

As in aside, I was looking @ the financial district in Shanghai, China, the overall look of the skyscrapers (very imposing), and also @ the tallest buildings in the world, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and their evolution since the great pyramid. We are approaching a mile high tower.

And it keeps going ... exponentially

North American cities in comparison simply cannot compete with the height and majesty of their skylines.

Sorry for the short interlude, now back to our regular programming...COVID-19 and herd immunity strategy or not.

not an interlude since elevators are one of the most virus transmissible means of mass transit...

 

[North_Sky]

ScienceAdvances ...

This is still good for everyone (masks) ...
▪ https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/36/eabd3083

 

[North_Sky]

@North_Sky
Once available, will you go straight ahead and get that (or any other) vaccine ?
No hesitation , whatsoever ? hmmm ?

I mean really no hesitation ?

Really ?

I'll get vaccinated for COVID-19 only after zero negative bad side effects.
For now I follow the Japanese good common sense and healthy culture...that's the best vaccine of them all.

And any vaccine coming up on November 1st is not for Canadians.
...Or one coming up in October next month.

 

[North_Sky]

The chance of a US vaccine by November 1st available and distributed in somewhat large quantities is pretty much zero. This is what health experts have been saying for awhile, and this morning the chief vaccine adviser for Trump's Operation Warp Speed said it was “extremely unlikely but not impossible” that a vaccine could be available by the end of October. I wonder if he will still have his job in a couple of days.

Or he'll get fired or he'll resign before.

 

[BDWoody]

And best to use a condom when having sex.

When else would you use it?

 

[Nemo]

A cautionary tale from modern US history: this from an article from May 1st (https://www.seattletimes.com/nation...-sought-a-warp-speed-vaccine-it-was-a-fiasco/) There was another one on NYT yesterday:

The federal government has launched “Operation Warp Speed” to deliver a COVID-19 vaccine by January, months ahead of standard vaccine timelines.

The last time the government tried that, it was a total fiasco.

Gerald Ford was president. It was 1976. Early that year, a mysterious new strain of swine flu turned up at Fort Dix, New Jersey. One Army private died. Many others became severely ill. The nation’s top infectious disease doctors were shaken. [...]

Every American, Ford said, would be vaccinated.

The government had never attempted such an endeavor — both in its breadth and speed.

Almost immediately, there was chaos. [...]

By December, following 94 reports of paralysis, the entire program was shut down.

Almost immediately, in grand Washington fashion, fingers were pointed. Scientists and government officials turned on each other, with allegations that Ford acted recklessly for political gain without knowing for sure whether a pandemic would emerge — an impossible predictive game, his defenders argued.

 

[North_Sky]

Nemo, you and I read the same articles.

You probably read this today or yesterday too ...
• https://www.nbc12.com/2020/09/03/fauci-covid-vaccine-by-oct-unlikely-not-impossible/

 

[North_Sky]

Another good article ...
✒ https://nationalpost.com/health/it-...ell-us-about-when-life-might-return-to-normal

 

[Don Hills]

... And best to use a condom when having sex.

Wear face masks too. And plenty of lube hand sanitizer.

 

[North_Sky]

Wear face masks too. And plenty of lube hand sanitizer.

Oh yes ... that goes without saying ...
• https://japantoday.com/category/world/canada's-top-doctor-urges-mask-wearing-during-sex-no-kissing

• https://www.thrillist.com/vice/diy-things-you-can-do-with-condoms-besides-sex
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Bonus: