Most of the comments are rants or inaccurate statements about herd immunity. Nothing scientific about this.Not seeing anything very valuable coming from this thread .
I have a feeling that no vaccine is effective, neither any herd immunity. This virus is like a cold virus, only much deadlier. You can get reinfected again and again until it kills you, if not now, in a decade or so, when you're immune system gets weakened as you age. I think this virus will wipe out 50% of the earth's population within a couple of decades. Maybe, we as humans don't deserve to live... This is what happens when humans abuse animals for food...
If people find posting their thoughts and feelings about herd immunity cathartic in some way, then power to them because our mental health is important. I hope it is doing more good than harm.It's like music and movies...it's about entertainment not science.
A pandemic is not much more scientific, and herd immunity is more for entertaining our brain than scientific analysis. ...Right?
If people find posting their thoughts and feelings about herd immunity cathartic in some way, then power to them because our mental health is important. I hope it is doing more good than harm.
I suppose that it will be yet another pathogen with which I am not deflicted.
As for herd immunity, with a world population of 7,800,000,000 and confirmed cases of 18,200,000, giving a confirmed herd of 0.23% among us all, I'd only be able to presume we aren't there yet.
I sure agree with you ... "our mental health is important."
Herd immunity is one of the big talks nowadays. Some people entertain the strategy, others are more cautious; it's a risky proposition.
Do we have expert scientists (epidemiologists) here who can direct us in the right direction on this very subject?
No, herd immunity is not like a movie, or a music album to be entertained with. It's a serious reality that requires smart analysis with all the risks factor. And even for the experts it's no baseball game ...
Open quote:
"Getting to herd immunity – when so many people are immune to a virus that it stops circulating – is a great thing, but the cost of getting there can be very high, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Monday.
“Herd immunity is something that's always discussed — but one of the things you've got to be careful of is as follows: When children get infected, even though statistically they have a much, much lower chance of getting a severe outcome and requiring hospitalization… the only thing is that there still is a risk,” Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at a briefing with Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont.
“Children can get seriously ill. It’s a rare event, but it is not zero — particularly the thing that we're learning about the … hype-inflammatory syndrome some children get. So we should never take it lightly, going for herd immunity by getting the children infected,” he said. Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children or MIS-C has affected several hundred children in the US and while treatable, can put kids into the intensive care unit for days or weeks. And at least six children have died, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Fauci said that while in the big picture a community wants to reach herd immunity, it should not be at the expense of the children, or at those who would be put at risk if a child infected them.
“I think we have to be very careful. The best thing to do is to try and avoid infection, as opposed to wanting to get infection so that you can get herd immunity. Avoiding infection is what you want to do,” he emphasized.Herd immunity can be achieved in two ways – after most of a population has been infected and either died or recovered, or through mass vaccination."
Close quote.
Me:
I agree with Dr. Fauci because I've said in the past that herd immunity strategy exposes the elders (over 60) and the vulnerables of all ages...and even some young and healthy no matter how small the percentage.
Over time it'll become natural, like we can't escape it...it's only a matter of time.
But why rush it and risk it, instead of slowing it down and better cope with it.
Are we ready here in countries were we cherish our freedom, our liberty, our independence, our lifestyle of the rich and famous?
I don't think so; for that we need to take example of the countries who are, and adapt their plans here. After 7 months we already know which countries; Singapore, China, Korea, Thailand, New Zealand, Australia, and few more.
I was looking @ Spain earlier today; the number of new cases is growing.
Also, Sundays and Mondays are always slower...in the number of new cases and departed worldwide. It's been following this trend since mid-April.
In some states (USA) and around the world the number of cases is much much higher than what's reported. ...Ten times higher and much more in some regions/states...like Texas for example, according to the latest news.
• https://www.houstonchronicle.com/ne...-Texans-are-getting-rapid-result-15452709.php
Right now we are almost @ 20 million cases worldwide, and tomorrow 700,000 departed.
The greatest challenge we are facing is to be blindfolded.
We have to see clear and put our resources where it counts the most; protection.
Unfortunately that is not only a problem with this thread, the entire Covid research has the exact same issue (at least AFAIK.)Not seeing anything very valuable coming from this thread .
that is exactly what Sweden did and still does. Too soon for any conclusions but they aren't doing that bad.Herd immunity can't be a workable solution.
If it was a solid strategy we would keep our schools open, our bars open, our restaurants open, our movie theaters open, our museums, our shopping malls, our grocery stores, our gas stations, our borders, our airplanes, our airports, our subways, Disneyland,...everything normal open as usual.
Which is another reason why the vaccine route might be quite bumpy. The best we can do might very well be a bi-annual flu+Covid vaccine (with partial results, same as the current flu ones).Heard immunity possibly won't work, in the same way it doesn't work for the Flu unless you take vaccines that have predicted properly the variant of the strain and it's bi-annual mutation sort.
Corona virus(s) immunity seems to only last around a few months to two years at best for the existing strains we have some data for.
"But the actual number of cases worldwide is less than accurate. I would put it closer to 200 million, or more."• World population: 7.8 billion ... check
• Confirmed cases: Less than 20 million today ... check
• Percentage: 0.25% (roughly) ... check
But the actual number of cases worldwide is less than accurate.
I would put it closer to 200 million, or more.
Still, we are quite some distant time away from say 70% herd immunity.
* I still keep an eye open on Sweden ...
My other eye is open on Singapore ...
▪https://www.businessinsider.com/sin...-electronic-tags-to-enforce-quarantine-2020-8
Influenza (flu) viruses have been around for approximately ever. The Spanish Flu was a particularly nasty variant of influenza A(H1N1). It is no longer in circulation. Another A(H1N1) variant caused the 2009 "swine flu" outbreak. Descendants of this one are currently part of the seasonal flu mix along with A(H3N2) variants and influenza B.My understanding is that the 'Spanish Flu' (really should be called the Kansas flu because that where it was first found) is the ancestor of the flu viruses we have today, i.e. it became endemic.
That depends on the metrics you use to determine what is "bad." If you use case counts and deaths normalized by population then they are doing bad compared to the rest of Europe. Here is data comparing Sweden to all countries in Europe with a population >2M as of 8/3:that is exactly what Sweden did and still does. Too soon for any conclusions but they aren't doing that bad.
"But the actual number of cases worldwide is less than accurate. I would put it closer to 200 million, or more."
Really, on the basis of what? All of the pontification going on here in regard to that point isn't based on anything more than uninformed speculation. .
Its interesting. Well clearly you would expect them to have more cases. Still 3 countries with higher mortality rates. I doubt Sweden has a significantly more effective health system than those countries to account for that.That depends on the metrics you use to determine what is "bad." If you use case counts and deaths normalized by population then they are doing bad compared to the rest of Europe. Here is data comparing Sweden to all countries in Europe with a population >2M as of 8/3:
View attachment 76582
So they are the worst for total cases per million, and 4th worst for total deaths. They have over 4k cases per million more than the European average, and 300 deaths per million more than the European average.
Data was taken from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
If anyone wants the underlying Excel data PM me.
That's the situation today, and it certainly doesn't look great. However, all those other countries are still seeing new cases. Whenever the epidemic is over (whether or not the virus becomes endemic), we may find that Sweden simply had more cases (and deaths) early while other countries spread the impact over a longer time (at great cost to the economy). Or not. It's too early to be drawing any firm conclusions from data like that.That depends on the metrics you use to determine what is "bad." If you use case counts and deaths normalized by population then they are doing bad compared to the rest of Europe. Here is data comparing Sweden to all countries in Europe with a population >2M as of 8/3:
View attachment 76582
So they are the worst for total cases per million, and 4th worst for total deaths. They have over 4k cases per million more than the European average, and 300 deaths per million more than the European average.
Data was taken from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
If anyone wants the underlying Excel data PM me.