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Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

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North_Sky

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It's like music and movies...it's about entertainment not science.
A pandemic is not much more scientific, and herd immunity is more for entertaining our brain than scientific analysis. ...Right?
 

Putter

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I have a feeling that no vaccine is effective, neither any herd immunity. This virus is like a cold virus, only much deadlier. You can get reinfected again and again until it kills you, if not now, in a decade or so, when you're immune system gets weakened as you age. I think this virus will wipe out 50% of the earth's population within a couple of decades. Maybe, we as humans don't deserve to live... This is what happens when humans abuse animals for food...
My understanding is that the 'Spanish Flu' (really should be called the Kansas flu because that where it was first found) is the ancestor of the flu viruses we have today, i.e. it became endemic. This is the concern and likely reality for corona as Dr. Fauci put it

“I do not believe it would disappear because it’s such a highly transmissible virus,” Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a House Select Subcommittee hearing on containing the coronavirus outbreak. While the virus will not disappear, Fauci has previously said it’s possible world leaders and public health officials could work to bring the pandemic down to “low levels.”

However the tendency is for diseases to become less lethal over time because it reduces the possibility of transmission. Indeed the virulence of Covid is in large part due to the fact that it can be transmitted by people with mild to non existent symptoms.

On a related? matter, most of these pandemic/endemic type diseases (cholera, Typhus, Syphilis, TB, AIDS, Polio, mumps, leprosy) are thought to have an animal origin. In fact I would guess that the Spanish flu came from Ducks or chickens since it is thought to have an Avian origin and the new flu strains come from rural areas in Southeast Asia. The point is not so much that we're 'abusing' animals as that is an unavoidable consequence of being at least partially dependent on animal for food and other products.

While this might seem like a recommendation for veganism, it was pointed out to me by my agronomy teachers that much of the earth is not suitable for mono cropping agriculture because it is too hilly, wet, infertile, etc. , but often is suitable as pasture for grazing animals who basically convert the grass to meat and milk. My reference for the origin of endemic diseases is a book by Jared Diamond Guns, Germs, and Steel which is "a history of the world in less than 500 pages which succeeds admirably". This is a quote from a review by Colin Renfrew published in Nature.
 

Racheski

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It's like music and movies...it's about entertainment not science.
A pandemic is not much more scientific, and herd immunity is more for entertaining our brain than scientific analysis. ...Right?
If people find posting their thoughts and feelings about herd immunity cathartic in some way, then power to them because our mental health is important. I hope it is doing more good than harm.
 

RayDunzl

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I suppose that it will be yet another pathogen with which I am not deflicted.

As for herd immunity, with a world population of 7,800,000,000 and confirmed cases of 18,200,000, giving a confirmed herd of 0.23% among us all, I'd only be able to presume we aren't there yet.
 

North_Sky

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If people find posting their thoughts and feelings about herd immunity cathartic in some way, then power to them because our mental health is important. I hope it is doing more good than harm.
I sure agree with you ... "our mental health is important."

Herd immunity is one of the big talks nowadays. Some people entertain the strategy, others are more cautious; it's a risky proposition.

Do we have expert scientists (epidemiologists) here who can direct us in the right direction on this very subject?

No, herd immunity is not like a movie, or a music album to be entertained with. It's a serious reality that requires smart analysis with all the risks factor. And even for the experts it's no baseball game ...

Open quote:
"Getting to herd immunity – when so many people are immune to a virus that it stops circulating – is a great thing, but the cost of getting there can be very high, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Monday.

“Herd immunity is something that's always discussed — but one of the things you've got to be careful of is as follows: When children get infected, even though statistically they have a much, much lower chance of getting a severe outcome and requiring hospitalization… the only thing is that there still is a risk,” Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at a briefing with Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont.

“Children can get seriously ill. It’s a rare event, but it is not zero — particularly the thing that we're learning about the … hype-inflammatory syndrome some children get. So we should never take it lightly, going for herd immunity by getting the children infected,” he said. Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children or MIS-C has affected several hundred children in the US and while treatable, can put kids into the intensive care unit for days or weeks. And at least six children have died, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Fauci said that while in the big picture a community wants to reach herd immunity, it should not be at the expense of the children, or at those who would be put at risk if a child infected them.

“I think we have to be very careful. The best thing to do is to try and avoid infection, as opposed to wanting to get infection so that you can get herd immunity. Avoiding infection is what you want to do,” he emphasized.
Herd immunity can be achieved in two ways – after most of a population has been infected and either died or recovered, or through mass vaccination."
Close quote.


Me:
I agree with Dr. Fauci because I've said in the past that herd immunity strategy exposes the elders (over 60) and the vulnerables of all ages...and even some young and healthy no matter how small the percentage.

Over time it'll become natural, like we can't escape it...it's only a matter of time.
But why rush it and risk it, instead of slowing it down and better cope with it.


Are we ready here in countries were we cherish our freedom, our liberty, our independence, our lifestyle of the rich and famous?
I don't think so; for that we need to take example of the countries who are, and adapt their plans here. After 7 months we already know which countries; Singapore, China, Korea, Thailand, New Zealand, Australia, and few more.


I was looking @ Spain earlier today; the number of new cases is growing.

Also, Sundays and Mondays are always slower...in the number of new cases and departed worldwide. It's been following this trend since mid-April.

In some states (USA) and around the world the number of cases is much much higher than what's reported. ...Ten times higher and much more in some regions/states...like Texas for example, according to the latest news.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/ne...-Texans-are-getting-rapid-result-15452709.php


Right now we are almost @ 20 million cases worldwide, and tomorrow 700,000 departed.

The greatest challenge we are facing is to be blindfolded.
We have to see clear and put our resources where it counts the most; protection.
 
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North_Sky

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I suppose that it will be yet another pathogen with which I am not deflicted.

As for herd immunity, with a world population of 7,800,000,000 and confirmed cases of 18,200,000, giving a confirmed herd of 0.23% among us all, I'd only be able to presume we aren't there yet.
• World population: 7.8 billion ... check
• Confirmed cases: Less than 20 million today ... check
• Percentage: 0.25% (roughly) ... check

But the actual number of cases worldwide is less than accurate.
I would put it closer to 200 million, or more.

Still, we are quite some distant time away from say 70% herd immunity.
* I still keep an eye open on Sweden ...
My other eye is open on Singapore ...
https://www.businessinsider.com/sin...-electronic-tags-to-enforce-quarantine-2020-8
 
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Racheski

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I sure agree with you ... "our mental health is important."

Herd immunity is one of the big talks nowadays. Some people entertain the strategy, others are more cautious; it's a risky proposition.

Do we have expert scientists (epidemiologists) here who can direct us in the right direction on this very subject?

No, herd immunity is not like a movie, or a music album to be entertained with. It's a serious reality that requires smart analysis with all the risks factor. And even for the experts it's no baseball game ...

Open quote:
"Getting to herd immunity – when so many people are immune to a virus that it stops circulating – is a great thing, but the cost of getting there can be very high, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Monday.

“Herd immunity is something that's always discussed — but one of the things you've got to be careful of is as follows: When children get infected, even though statistically they have a much, much lower chance of getting a severe outcome and requiring hospitalization… the only thing is that there still is a risk,” Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at a briefing with Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont.

“Children can get seriously ill. It’s a rare event, but it is not zero — particularly the thing that we're learning about the … hype-inflammatory syndrome some children get. So we should never take it lightly, going for herd immunity by getting the children infected,” he said. Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children or MIS-C has affected several hundred children in the US and while treatable, can put kids into the intensive care unit for days or weeks. And at least six children have died, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Fauci said that while in the big picture a community wants to reach herd immunity, it should not be at the expense of the children, or at those who would be put at risk if a child infected them.

“I think we have to be very careful. The best thing to do is to try and avoid infection, as opposed to wanting to get infection so that you can get herd immunity. Avoiding infection is what you want to do,” he emphasized.
Herd immunity can be achieved in two ways – after most of a population has been infected and either died or recovered, or through mass vaccination."
Close quote.


Me:
I agree with Dr. Fauci because I've said in the past that herd immunity strategy exposes the elders (over 60) and the vulnerables of all ages...and even some young and healthy no matter how small the percentage.

Over time it'll become natural, like we can't escape it...it's only a matter of time.
But why rush it and risk it, instead of slowing it down and better cope with it.


Are we ready here in countries were we cherish our freedom, our liberty, our independence, our lifestyle of the rich and famous?
I don't think so; for that we need to take example of the countries who are, and adapt their plans here. After 7 months we already know which countries; Singapore, China, Korea, Thailand, New Zealand, Australia, and few more.


I was looking @ Spain earlier today; the number of new cases is growing.

Also, Sundays and Mondays are always slower...in the number of new cases and departed worldwide. It's been following this trend since mid-April.

In some states (USA) and around the world the number of cases is much much higher than what's reported. ...Ten times higher and much more in some regions/states...like Texas for example, according to the latest news.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/ne...-Texans-are-getting-rapid-result-15452709.php


Right now we are almost @ 20 million cases worldwide, and tomorrow 700,000 departed.

The greatest challenge we are facing is to be blindfolded.
We have to see clear and put our resources where it counts the most; protection.
I was talking about this specific thread and trying to find some silver lining. I'm not advocating a "herd immunity" strategy for the sake of mental health.

We do not know enough about the virus to give any credence to a widespread herd immunity strategy. Epidemiologists need accurate parameters to model how the virus will spread, and there are currently too many unknown variables, e.g. when a vaccine will be distributed, precise re-infection rates, the effects of long term exposure, etc...we just don't know enough yet.
 

North_Sky

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I know what you were saying. We all keep our mental health as the data gives us more info every day. Watching movies and listening to music @ home fits the bill.

As for a vaccine I wouldn't give too much hope in that silver bullet...short term and long term...like ever.

A silver lining in face of the unknown and twisted and manipulated news is life itself...the respect we give and the respect we receive. ...Adapt to a new reality, protect life before all.

Open quote: [
Geneva:
"The World Health Organization warned Monday that there might never be a "silver bullet" for the new coronavirus, despite the rush to discover effective vaccines.

The WHO urged governments and citizens to focus on doing the known basics, such as testing, contact tracing, maintaining physical distance and wearing a mask in order to suppress the pandemic, which has upended normal life around the globe and triggered a devastating economic crisis.

"We all hope to have a number of effective vaccines that can help prevent people from infection," WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a virtual press conference.

"However, there's no silver bullet at the moment -- and there might never be."

"For now, stopping outbreaks comes down to the basics of public health and disease control.

"Do it all," he urged."]
Close quote.
 
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onofno

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Resistance to overbearing regulations is about more than just “freedom”.

People who resist COVID-19 restrictions are often accused of being selfish and caring only about their own freedom. While that might explain the actions of some, moral arguments can be made against many of the restrictions.

Although simple appeals to “freedom” are indeed less popular today than in the past, we should not disregard them. Nearly all our responses to COVID-19 require balancing one concern against another, and individuals and institutions will come to different conclusions as they try to strike that balance.

Freedom implies the right to conclude something different than the state and order your life accordingly. That is no small thing.

read more : The FEDERALIST
 
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lashto

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Not seeing anything very valuable coming from this thread .
Unfortunately that is not only a problem with this thread, the entire Covid research has the exact same issue (at least AFAIK.)
Herd immunity can't be a workable solution.
If it was a solid strategy we would keep our schools open, our bars open, our restaurants open, our movie theaters open, our museums, our shopping malls, our grocery stores, our gas stations, our borders, our airplanes, our airports, our subways, Disneyland,...everything normal open as usual.
that is exactly what Sweden did and still does. Too soon for any conclusions but they aren't doing that bad.
Heard immunity possibly won't work, in the same way it doesn't work for the Flu unless you take vaccines that have predicted properly the variant of the strain and it's bi-annual mutation sort.
Corona virus(s) immunity seems to only last around a few months to two years at best for the existing strains we have some data for.
Which is another reason why the vaccine route might be quite bumpy. The best we can do might very well be a bi-annual flu+Covid vaccine (with partial results, same as the current flu ones).

Generally looks like many/most dislike the herd-strategy and use the "we don't have enough data" argument to 'demonstrate' that it'll not work. Let's not forget that "we don't have enough data" applies the same to everything else. Any other strategy can be demolished with the exact same arguments.

It's mostly guess work at this time and that's what I wanted from this thread: guess/predict the next strategy so we can better prepare for it. It's not like anyone will 'solve' Covid today .. or in this thread.
 

phoenixdogfan

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• World population: 7.8 billion ... check
• Confirmed cases: Less than 20 million today ... check
• Percentage: 0.25% (roughly) ... check

But the actual number of cases worldwide is less than accurate.
I would put it closer to 200 million, or more.

Still, we are quite some distant time away from say 70% herd immunity.
* I still keep an eye open on Sweden ...
My other eye is open on Singapore ...
https://www.businessinsider.com/sin...-electronic-tags-to-enforce-quarantine-2020-8
"But the actual number of cases worldwide is less than accurate. I would put it closer to 200 million, or more."

Really, on the basis of what? All of the pontification going on here in regard to that point isn't based on anything more than uninformed speculation. Even though this thread is not about audio, people should remember the blog also has the word "science" in its title, and what I've been reading here on things like the true death rate, true R0, true number of cases is based on uninformed speculation no doubt culled from other media sources which are themselves guilty of same.

Truth is, we don't even know where we are in the pandemic at this point because of a willfully pursued ignorance perpetrated by our government (and it's in the news, and well sourced, so yes it's real and really happened) to hold down the numbers for political purposes.

I walked away from this thread b/c I was so disgusted with the outpourings of some of the "herd immunity" proponents.

I truly am repelled by the way we're dignifying this concept by amorally discussing its pros and cons. In political science there's a concept called the Overton Window. The OW represents the range of politcal opinions held by the political mainstream. Some ideas just don't belong in the OW in any normal society. Normal society's don't hold debates over whether they should commit genocide on a minority group, for example. We don't even want to frame anything like that as belonging in the OW.

And so likewise it is about discussing deliberately exposing large segments of your population to a deadly, and contagious disease just because you don't want the majority to have to assume the social and economic costs of undertaking proven and efficacious public health measures. And then there's the cavalier tone of the whole thing! Just listen to how it's being discussed in the last few submissions one person wrote that "herd immunity is more for entertaining our brain than scientific analysis." Really!

That's exactly what I'm referring to. The virus has already claimed the lives of 700k worldwide, and caused irreparable damage to the lives of millions if not tens of millions more, and bad as that is, it's a very long way from "herd immunity". Moreover, some people here are blandly suggesting it's just a slight upward tick in worldwide mortality rates!

That kind of framing is what can be expected from social and economic Darwinist dead enders who haven't been touched by this, don't believe they will ever personally be touched, and don't give a rat's posterior about anyone else who it touches because they were either too old or too sick or too weak for their immune systems to fight back. And so, they maintain, why should anyone not in their boat care if the pandemic hastens their demise as long as the people who really matter get to go about their lives exactly as they did pre-pandemic.

Yeah, that's pretty disgusting to anyone who has a social conscience-and should be! And, by the way, a social consciences and altruism are well established evolved mechanisms which further the well being of the species. And that's why such concepts lie at the base of just about every ethical system not originated by Ayn Rand.

Don't believe me. Read a couple of books by Richard Dawkins.
 
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lashto

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@phoenixdogfan emotions are understandably at an alltime high and this thread is not gonna live much if we start talking morality, ethics, politics, etc. Whether we like it or not, science and ethics are two different things. And before we can talk ethics, there must be a few 'technical' solutions on the table. Here what we have for now (AFAIK):
  1. quarantine. Very good to win time but long term it's impossible to contain a virus like that. Not even talking economics here but simple human nature. Even if your neighborhood/town/country does it well, on a worldwide scale it is just neverending whack-a-mole.
  2. treatment/vaccine. Only researching and waiting for now. And hopefully the 1+2 combo will work fine.
  3. herd immunity. Whatever that means and however it'll work .. or not work.

I asked from the first post and kept asking: does anyone know another strategy? I would surely want to know about a better one cause the 1-3 above are all seriously slim. And quite 'ugly' from the ethics point of view .. and pretty much any other point of view.
 

mansr

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My understanding is that the 'Spanish Flu' (really should be called the Kansas flu because that where it was first found) is the ancestor of the flu viruses we have today, i.e. it became endemic.
Influenza (flu) viruses have been around for approximately ever. The Spanish Flu was a particularly nasty variant of influenza A(H1N1). It is no longer in circulation. Another A(H1N1) variant caused the 2009 "swine flu" outbreak. Descendants of this one are currently part of the seasonal flu mix along with A(H3N2) variants and influenza B.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
 

Racheski

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that is exactly what Sweden did and still does. Too soon for any conclusions but they aren't doing that bad.
That depends on the metrics you use to determine what is "bad." If you use case counts and deaths normalized by population then they are doing bad compared to the rest of Europe. Here is data comparing Sweden to all countries in Europe with a population >2M as of 8/3:
1596533671991.png

So they are the worst for total cases per million, and 4th worst for total deaths. They have over 4k cases per million more than the European average, and 300 deaths per million more than the European average.
Data was taken from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
If anyone wants the underlying Excel data PM me.
 

March Audio

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"But the actual number of cases worldwide is less than accurate. I would put it closer to 200 million, or more."

Really, on the basis of what? All of the pontification going on here in regard to that point isn't based on anything more than uninformed speculation. .
Not really, its quite reasonable to extrapolate on the basis that the numbers reflect only the tested and confirmed cases. There has been plenty of informed commentary to indicate the actual infections may be 10x higher.
 

March Audio

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That depends on the metrics you use to determine what is "bad." If you use case counts and deaths normalized by population then they are doing bad compared to the rest of Europe. Here is data comparing Sweden to all countries in Europe with a population >2M as of 8/3:
View attachment 76582
So they are the worst for total cases per million, and 4th worst for total deaths. They have over 4k cases per million more than the European average, and 300 deaths per million more than the European average.
Data was taken from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
If anyone wants the underlying Excel data PM me.
Its interesting. Well clearly you would expect them to have more cases. Still 3 countries with higher mortality rates. I doubt Sweden has a significantly more effective health system than those countries to account for that.

We will only know if its actually a beneficial strategy after the event.
 

mansr

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That depends on the metrics you use to determine what is "bad." If you use case counts and deaths normalized by population then they are doing bad compared to the rest of Europe. Here is data comparing Sweden to all countries in Europe with a population >2M as of 8/3:
View attachment 76582
So they are the worst for total cases per million, and 4th worst for total deaths. They have over 4k cases per million more than the European average, and 300 deaths per million more than the European average.
Data was taken from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
If anyone wants the underlying Excel data PM me.
That's the situation today, and it certainly doesn't look great. However, all those other countries are still seeing new cases. Whenever the epidemic is over (whether or not the virus becomes endemic), we may find that Sweden simply had more cases (and deaths) early while other countries spread the impact over a longer time (at great cost to the economy). Or not. It's too early to be drawing any firm conclusions from data like that.
 
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