Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

[PierreV]

Well, if that's 5 years down the road...

One of my main fears is that all this noise is just meant to convince people to accept an half-cooked vaccine.
That's a fear.
I have, so far, no fact supporting that (or the opposite).
Fears are irrationnal, sometimes (most of the time, based on some diffuse feeling)

Potentially, THAT would be a major health risk.

I share that concern. Whether the reason is political, commercial or simply the intention to show that governments or supranational bodies are acting.

 

[North_Sky]

This is a good time to look @ the leading countries in containing the virus so it doesn't spread and kill. We all know which countries; it's a good time to learn from them, and not do just the exact opposite. And that, the numbers speak for themselves.

We cannot go back in time, we can only move forward, with zest and verve and fast, without fear with our masks on. Vigilance, safety zones (home), use our brain to lead from what we're learning each day from science and the expert people on COVID-19 and pandemics.

Like I said; some countries have a very good handle on the real situation with real efficient measures. They are tomorrow's true world leaders...their people all together...with experience and intelligence on the matter of fact.

...And with respect for humanity first. Everything else falls in line...health, wealth, stock markets, bank accounts, economics, jobs, equality, harmony in a rainbow of colors ... all that jazz. ...A roof above our heads and healthy food and water and air and cool temperatures. Leave those bats alone ...

 

[andymok]

interesting, I'm only seeing this thread now

I guess we all now find

- survey data lags
- mask works
- hygiene matters

if the later two are well executed for a period of time, no it probably won't take it that far to herd immunity, and intrusive measures like vaccines wouldn't be needed either

and yet winter's coming and there'll certainly be more sneeze and coughs ......

 

[mansr]

If you care about what virologists, and others with actual expertise, say - then understand that they say that a fully effective vaccine is unlikely.

Few, if any, vaccines are 100% effective, nor do they need to in order to be useful.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3798059/

 

[krabapple]

If you care about what virologists, and others with actual expertise, say - then understand that they say that a fully effective vaccine is unlikely.

'They' do? Who, where? And what, exactly, do you/they mean by 'fully effective'? (Or maybe I should ask, what do they mean, and what do you think they mean?)

Yearly flu vaccines aren't 'fully effective', depending on your definition of 'fully effective'. And their effectiveness varies from season to season. Yet they remain useful, and 'they' ('virologists, and others') are not calling for flu vaccinations to stop. Reread what I wrote about luck up there. And understand that to jump-start herd immunity a vaccine need not be 100% 'effective'.

 

[North_Sky]

98,000 new cases today in India.
...Spain and France, ten times less (new cases) than India.

Vaccines? By the end of next month...one that requires twice vaccination?
Everyone in the world (50%) vaccinated by the end of 2024?

* The air is unbreathable today again...it's been over a week and without a mask outside it's very painful...very hazardous for even very healthy people with lungs of steel and heart of gold. Everyone else stay home or drive away from the smoke...way up North, or East.
It sure crosses my mind to drive far away where the air quality is essential for me, and my friends with human lungs.

 

[Wes]

'They' do? Who, where? And what, exactly, do you/they mean by 'fully effective'? (Or maybe I should ask, what do they mean, and what do you think they mean?)

Yearly flu vaccines aren't 'fully effective', depending on your definition of 'fully effective'. And their effectiveness varies from season to season. Yet they remain useful, and 'they' ('virologists, and others') are not calling for flu vaccinations to stop. Reread what I wrote about luck up there. And understand that to jump-start herd immunity a vaccine need not be 100% 'effective'.

It is all over J. Virol. and other literature. I suggest some reading.

 

[North_Sky]

Say just over six months ago (beginning of March), who could have predicted over 30 million Coronavirus infected, and almost a million departed forever (end of Sept.)?
WHO? Singapore? Hong Kong? Vietnam? Tawain? Thailand? New Zealand? Japan?
USA and the Americas? Russia? China? ...WHO?
UK? France? Italy? Spain? Brazil? ...WHO?
Canada? Mexico? Germany? Australia? ...WHO?
India?

 

[jasonhanjk]

Say just over six months ago (beginning of March), who could have predicted over 30 million Coronavirus infected, and almost a million departed forever (end of Sept.)?

No one could predict but China alone releases deadly viruses without informing the public, twice.

Both Sars and c19 causes many inconvenience.

 

[North_Sky]

She cut a carrot for the first time, @ age 41. ...Worth reading.
• https://www.bbc.com/news/disability-53863013

 

[North_Sky]

No one could predict but China alone releases deadly viruses without informing the public, twice.

Both Sars and c19 causes many inconvenience.

Good you mentioned because I'm not proud of our Canadian Health Minister, not one ounce. I would fire her, right away, no question asked.
• https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-...s-handling-of-COVID-19--TPrDfplKJq/index.html

 

[North_Sky]

Face masks are our best defence ... you betcha!
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/sep/16/face-masks-coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield

 

[jasonhanjk]

Good you mentioned because I'm not proud of our Canadian Health Minister, not one ounce. I would fire her, right away, no question asked.
• https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-...s-handling-of-COVID-19--TPrDfplKJq/index.html

Hah.
So many dead bodies pile up in Wuhan, their morgue have to run 24/7 so to cover up total death.
Publishing real death data is a no no in China.

In December, the local Wuhan government even organized an all are welcome buffet to dispel the virus rumor.

 

[North_Sky]

On South Africa and herd immunity ...
• https://www.scmp.com/news/world/afr...h-africans-probably-had-coronavirus-low-death

Are South Africa numbers reliable?

 

[North_Sky]

Hah.
So many dead bodies pile up in Wuhan, their morgue have to run 24/7 so to cover up total death.
Publishing real death data is a no no in China.

In December, the local Wuhan government even organized an all are welcome buffet to dispel the virus rumor.

For some people it takes a long time before they wake up, and when and if they do, or it's too late or they aren't here anymore...they're gone forever.
Our Cdn Health Minister is a disaster, there are no two ways to put it.

* And I think most smart people are aware of what you just said above; China simply cannot be trusted in this case here. Our best defence? MASK UP.

 

[North_Sky]

And Rio, god lock!
• https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...nd-wave-covid-19-ill-timed-reopening-13118502

 

[Aerith Gainsborough]

Face masks are our best defence ... you betcha!
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/sep/16/face-masks-coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield

"If you don't get an immune response (after the vaccine), this will protect you"

Actually, masks (especially self made ones) cannot stop viral particles. So masks do not protect their wearer.
All they can do is catch the larger droplets expelled by you until they are soaked wet (thus protecting others around you).
If they are wet, their protection goes down to 0 and they need to be changed.

The most important tool is to distance yourself from others, whenever you can.

 

[North_Sky]

I'm with you...we know which masks work best and which ones are not very protective.

* Should we have sex? Not much self-distancing in that sport ...
I'm with you again...in keeping safe distance.

 

[Aerith Gainsborough]

Well I think brothels are open again in Germany.

*scnr*

 

[Vasr]

Actually, masks (especially self made ones) cannot stop viral particles. So masks do not protect their wearer.

The last sentence is not entirely accurate. Viral particles don't travel much by themselves. The most common mode of transmission is through aerosol/droplets in the air. Masks at the receiver will help to varying degrees unless you are in a close proximity of infected person for more than a few minutes (like doctors/nurses who need close to 100% efficiency).

It is a probabilities game. Not a binary of whether a viral particle can get through or not. So, it isn't 100% or zero protection. Like any infection, it needs a certain concentration (which could vary from person to person) of viral particles before it can increase the odds of developing an infection. So, the effects of distancing, dispersion (via proper ventilation) and masks for all are multiplicative in reducing that probability.

If you can completely stay away from people with social distancing, then you can decrease the odds sufficiently on its own. But it is not always practical to do so when things start to get back to normal. You don't always have control in shared, enclosed spaces.

So, the masks become a second line of defense for receiver.

Three Ws - Wash hands, Wear a mask, Watch for other people. Don't need to pick and choose.