Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

[A Surfer]

With google translate, you can read articles in any language.

Nice that even if it isn't perfect, tools like Google Translate can help us communicate with different cultures and languages.

 

[Sak]

I don't trust anybody else but science data facts from trusty experts.

Right decision, I agree.

On the Internet I found only this in the public domain

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04437875?term=Gamaleya&draw=2&rank=2
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04436471?term=Gamaleya&draw=2&rank=3
https://sputnikvaccine.com/

 

[North_Sky]

May be.
But at the same time, any country that has registered its first vaccine will inevitably be criticized by society.

Here's another interesting article, with public comments.
https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/477596

In particular Russia because hackers try to steal info in Canada and in the USA on vaccine developments.

Anyway, this is hocus pocus Russian wannabe first to reap all the money and gold in the world. ...Rotten to the core...IMHO.

 

[ehabheikal]

Well, a COVID vaccine, in 2 years from now (if COVID still does some harm by then), why not ?
In general, I'm not against vaccines at all.

But a vaccine tested in a hurry with such big economic stake (which typically leads to serious shortcuts) ?
Not for me. (I'd even say: not for anyone)
That may perfectly harm many more people than the COVID itself.

I agree 100%

 

[Sak]

In particular Russia because hackers try to steal info in Canada and in the USA on vaccine developments.

You wrote above that you only trust facts.

I don't trust anybody else but science data facts from trusty experts.

Me too. I only trust facts, not political intrigues.
What hackers? Where did you see them?
Do you think there are no good specialists in Russia?
This conversation has already begun to flow in the wrong direction. I propose to end on this.

 

[North_Sky]

Latest news: 14 new cases in New Zealand ...
• https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/covid-19-new-zealand-mulls-lockdown-extension-13016070

Herd immunity is certainly not on their radar (strategy), and I 100 % approve.

 

[North_Sky]

You wrote above that you only trust facts.

Me too. I only trust facts, not political intrigues.
What hackers? Where did you see them?
Do you think there are no good specialists in Russia?
This conversation has already begun to flow in the wrong direction. I propose to end on this.

Vaccines with proven testing that is. I'm 100% with you.
Sorry, I didn't mean to underestimate other type of experts, vaccine hackers included.

* Recently new cases are appearing in Spain, Italy, Australia, UK, France, Germany, Canada, ... etc., after those countries had relatively very low new cases.

If you want to infect lot of people just reopen the schools everywhere.
If you want to save lives teach the kids @ home from their computers...virtual.
My opinion. That way masks issues are not in the way and same for self-distancing and desanitizing.

 

[Putter]

The death rate is too low for this to be true. Also, non-intuitively, more people dying from the disease may actually delay herd immunity because survivors could be immune and provide protection.
Here is a herd immunity calculator from five thirty eight to play around with.

I actually mentioned more deaths because the 'natural' way to herd immunity would cause more deaths than the immunized way.

 

[mansr]

It was expected. What will matter is how we deal with it, whether our contact tracing and isolation (and peoples' buy-in to the restrictions) will contain it or whether we end up with it widespread in the community again. One interesting point is that one of the cases works at a frozen food shipping depot, handling imported frozen goods.

What does this mean for New Zealand in the future, though? If the virus does become endemic in the rest of the world, should we simply erase NZ from the maps and pretend it doesn't exist?

 

[maty]

"Herd immunity means 1 million dead Americans," warns former CDC Director Tom Frieden. "That's what it would take to get to herd immunity." "That's not a plan," he adds. "That's a catastrophe."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1293744122721787904

 

[Rokker79]

Well you are all welcome to Sweden. Most of us survived this round, me my family and all my friends got it between feb - april.. yes many have died at the expense of not ruining the economy of the nation, right or wrong? Time will tell..
Anyway it's quite calm here now , people returning to work and schools open next week. Will be back for an update in a couple of weeks.. keep safe

 

[maty]

The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html

[ Nationwide, 200,000 more people have died than usual since March. This number is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus. ]

 

[maty]

New confirmed cases of Covid-19 in France, United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden, United States and Spain
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...lative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=1&values=cases

 

[Dave Zan]

What does this mean for New Zealand in the future...?

Restrictions on tourism, with mandatory quarantine.
Inconvenient but not the end of the world.
If a vaccine is developed then they are home free, have avoided a lot of unnecessary deaths.
Even if no vaccine then at least a substantial improvement in prevention/treatment seems almost certain
And they are still better off, the death rate has declined from either/or better treatment options or the tendency of viruses to mutate to less lethal variants.
Plus they were able to reopen more quickly than places that couldn't control the virus so the economy probably took less of a hit overall.

...should we simply erase NZ from the maps and pretend it doesn't exist?

Nah, probably NZ will erase Covid infected countries from their map and pretend whatever they feel like, because people from hotspots won't be allowed to come to NZ.
Sorry Britain, US, Brazil....
To be more serious, there was a proposal to link NZ and Australia in a Covid free travel "bubble".
It was to include other Covid free countries like some of the Pacific islands, and expand as more countries went clear.
That is now on hold while both countries deal with new outbreaks but will presumably be back on the table if they are successful.
If that's the case then it may even make NZ a more desirable tourist destination.
I can see the adverts now -
"Come to beautiful, Covid safe NZ! (not some virus infected cesspit of death"

Best wishes
David

 

[lashto]

an interesting interview with Gates

...for the rich world, we should largely be able to end this thing by the end of 2021, and for the world at large by the end of 2022. That is only because of the scale of the innovation that’s taking place.
...it’s because of innovation that you don’t have to contemplate an even sadder statement, which is this thing will be raging for five years until natural immunity is our only hope.

He seems to be much more optimistic nowadays, hope he is right.

 

[A Surfer]

Nobody can really know. Educated guessing ultimately. What we do know is that there will be deaths, and plenty of them yet to come, in particular if we value living our lives as social creatures with reasonable freedom. On-masse, if people are willing to trade in much of the social mobility and freedom they once enjoyed to curtail the risk then perhaps we may actually slow the spread down to an acceptable rate. The question remains just how much are we all willing to give up for certainly long-periods of time, possibly indefinitely?

I have yet to see any attempts at quantifying how it is that a vaccine is going to slow/stop community transmission rates. I know that there are so many unknowns, but it would be useful and transparent if the WHO and other health authorities of stature at least gave us bounded estimates. My concern is that people are going to be very disappointed if they wait through a year or more of such significant social and financial unrest only to learn that in actual effect, the vaccines have only a modest effect and that essentially all of the social distancing measures are going to be maintained as a new normal.

If that actually comes to pass, and clearly I would have no way of knowing, but if it does I remain highly, highly skeptical that there is a snowballs chance in hell of maintaining effective social distancing buy-in on the type of critical mass scale required. It will only take a small percentage of any population not willing to follow the rules to fuel ongoing community transmission. If this is so, and we can see evidence in every jurisdiction that large fractures in the social will and resolve to live like this for the foreseeable future are there, essentially this would seem to suggest that we need a new strategy.

I still think that attempting to control the majority is ridiculous, and for all intent and purpose impossible in this context. We need to be shifting the focus towards locking down the vulnerable and supporting them. What is more feasible/affordable, controlling 100% of a massive population, or controlling 20% of the same population? I know those are very simplistic notions, but I still feel they at least get at the direction where our social conversations need to go. Again, my position is predicated upon a firm belief that people are not equally able to be altruistic and because there are so many possible points of fracture in social ability and resolve to carry through such an undertaking, that trying to maintain social lockdown as a response is doomed to failure over the long-haul. Personal opinion, nothing more, nothing less.

 

[Old Listener]

As I read rather cheery posts about her immunity, I think about schools reopening. In person classes have the potential to spread the virus very quickly.

Scary news articles:

260 children and staff at Georgia overnight camp test positive for coronavirus, CDC says

1,193 Quarantined for Covid. Is This a Successful School Reopening?
( I love the school name - Hasty Elementary School. So ironic.)

This school reopened and 1 child infected 25 teachers

COVID-19 Surge at Georgia School After Mask-less Group Photo

 

[mansr]

I have yet to see any attempts at quantifying how it is that a vaccine is going to slow/stop community transmission rates.

The same way it's worked for hundreds of years. If, say, half the population is immunised, the virus reproduction rate is halved. If the reproduction rate is maintained below 1, the current epidemic will eventually subside. After that, the virus might vanish entirely, or it might linger and cause occasional minor outbreaks. If a vaccine is used diligently, the virus should in time be virtually eradicated. The effort required to achieve that depends largely on how effective a vaccine is and how long it lasts. A one-off injection with long-lasting effect requires less on-going effort than one that needs to be updated regularly. Look at the strategies and outcomes for various other diseases to get an idea of the possible futures for covid-19.

 

[Vasr]

Well you are all welcome to Sweden. Most of us survived this round, me my family and all my friends got it between feb - april.. yes many have died at the expense of not ruining the economy of the nation, right or wrong? Time will tell..

History is written by the survivors.

A good test would be whether Sweden's economy did (does) better than its immediate neighbors Norway, Finland and Denmark relative to the death toll. Can't find the 2Q data other than for Sweden yet. Sweden did better than Eurozone as a whole in 2Q but that is pulled down by the Southern Europe woes which were hit hard. Better comparison would be with similar and nearer countries.

 

[Rokker79]

History is written by the survivors.

A good test would be whether Sweden's economy did (does) better than its immediate neighbors Norway, Finland and Denmark relative to the death toll. Can't find the 2Q data other than for Sweden yet. Sweden did better than Eurozone as a whole in 2Q but that is pulled down by the Southern Europe woes which were hit hard. Better comparison would be with similar and nearer countries.

I'm very curious to see the numbers as well, Denmark and Norway had a similar approach as southern/central Europe.
And they managed to contain the spread, for some time..
In Sweden it spread so quick by the time authorities had a grip it was very much over ,not much to contain.
Or to much..
As i wrote earlier vacations is ending and school's about to open, i will wait some weeks for a follow up ..
I wasn't really cheerful in my earlier post , more sarcastic as our government plays with our lives!