Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

[Racheski]

It provides good background, tho I can do a better job with a chalkboard to draw on....

It depends who your audience is. This is coming from someone who actually tutored students in Biology during undergrad, and then worked as a ACT/SAT tutor during grad school. Sometimes you need to make real world analogies for folks to connect the dots and keep them engaged.

 

[North_Sky]

Which, as you say, is probably a rather inflated number. Moreover, the CFR is not evenly distributed across the population. The actual risk of dying from covid-19 is very strongly correlated with age. Guess what, old people are more likely to die of just about everything, including simply existing.

Some folks still believe that this virus is like nothing, not worth worrying about, not worth losing sleep over it, not worth closing the bars, not worth losing jobs ... etc., etc., etc.

In particular young people tend to believe that they are invincible, immortal and will live till the end of times...eternal. ...Not all kids but a fair bunch...drinkers and party goers, punks and ignorant addicts.

Kids in Canada (BC) are going back to school first week of September (that's the normal Fall school return to here). Kids are strong they should handle it...I hope.
It's the teachers and principals and parents and grandparents I'm a little concerned about.
I hope and I pray that everyone will be safe and lives will be spared. Deep down in my spirit that hope is very strong....hope for a safe future, hope hope hope...Faith, Belief, Hope.

True, there's not even a million dead worlwide...that won't be before the end of September anyway. But my HOPE is so strong that I hope even not.

Anyway this young man from Chicago I read on Facebook ...

"I still see some posts in here once in a while questioning whether the virus exists. I don't trust a thing the media says either just wanted to quickly share my story. In March I was working at the cook county jail in Chicago which became one of the worst places for the virus in the entire country. I'm 33. No history of asthma or prior health issues. I fell ill and couldn't breathe late March. I was sick for over a month with two hospitalizations. I couldn't walk at times and worried nightly if I was going to die. It felt like I had an alien living inside my body trying to kill me. It felt hostile in a way in which I've never been sick in my life. It was like a combination of the flu, pneumonia and mono. Anyway I still can't breathe normally and had to leave my job. It's real guys. Please wear the masks. I understand not trusting the media. Obviously the powers that be are using this to get richer and manipulate as usual but the virus is legit so just do your part when possible."

I know that here @ ASR we are more science oriented folks, and we take life scientifically serious...with data and facts and scientific analysis and measurements. So we know that this virus is serious, even with only 730,000 plus (tomorrow morning) dead worldwide.
And 20 million (tomorrow) infected people is small peanuts for a 7.8 billion world population.
Natural herd immunity (say 60 to 70%) won't happen tomorrow morning, but in about five to six years or most likely more; it all depends . . . of the universal attitude and prayers of hope for a vaccine or two. Our planet is still orbiting and nothing is going to stop it orbiting for a couple more billion years, if we're lucky enough to not self-destruct by pushing the wrong button.

We're good, real good. Schools are our next test ...
Banks too ... I mean the money inside them and where that money goes and what it is used for ...

Meanwhile life is normal as it can be during a pandemic ...
People still listen to stereo music and buy new headphones and DACs.
Grocery stores still have food and I even saw corn on sale for a dollar each (very small corn). I'll wait till they get bigger and a dozen for five bucks. Corn is good for you, if you still have your teeth ...

 

[North_Sky]

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...nity-is-the-pandemics-central-mystery/614956/

Wes, you good man. ...A major contributor in this community ...

 

[North_Sky]

Go ahead, and post a link to a photo of your chalkboard when you’re done.

It depends who your audience is. This is coming from someone who actually tutored students in Biology during undergrad, and then worked as a ACT/SAT tutor during grad school. Sometimes you need to make real world analogies for folks to connect the dots and keep them engaged.

You taught Biology? ...Excellent asset for us to have you.
You and Wes, you both good.

 

[Racheski]

You taught Biology? ...Excellent asset for us to have you.
You and Wes, you both good.

Tutored. The professor taught it

 

[Wes]

Maybe. When I was a grad. student I had to go over what the prof. mangled for my lab section.

I tried to avoid effing things up that badly when I was prof. myself...

Part of the reason for tests is to see if many students made sense out of your perfectly explained lecture...

Anyway, my original point was that The Atlantic tried to do everything with words, when some diagrams and maybe even an outline structure would help.

Oh, and BTW - I HATE the Immune System. Systems should have Organs not be distributed all over the damn place as loose cells.

 

[A Surfer]

... but a fair bunch...drinkers and party goers, punks and ignorant addicts.

Sorry mate, that is pretty darn judgmental of you I have to say. "Ignorant addicts"?. Not entirely sure what your knowledge level of addiction is, but if you mean addiction to illicit drugs or alcohol, that is a disease that when in advanced stages can really impair a persons ability to function and make decisions. Addicts can be in a life and death struggle and calling them ignorant is very insensitive. I would bet that many members here have struggled with addiction or have friends and loved ones who struggle with it. Sorry if I am being harsh, but if you wouldn't disparage people with cancer or Parkinson's disease not sure why you would feel it is ok to target people who suffer from addiction which can be absolutely devastating.

 

[North_Sky]

Some people are addicted to ignorance...a way of speech, that's all.
I wasn't referring to handicapped people, but to inconsiderate people; bandits, corrupted, manipulators, selfish, greedy, exploiters, ...that type...you know...acting as if the world is theirs and they can do whatever...ignorant addicts.

 

[A Surfer]

Some people are addicted to ignorance...a way of speech, that's all.
I wasn't referring to handicapped people, but to inconsiderate people; bandits, corrupted, manipulators, selfish, greedy, exploiters, ...that type...you know...acting as if the world is theirs and they can do whatever.

Might help if you made your meaning less cryptic then so as to avoid misunderstandings. It read as pretty straight forward so I was confused. I would ask what people do to qualify as bandits, corrupted, manipulators, selfish, greedy, exploiters in the context of the thread and your post. I am having trouble making the connection and I would like to better understand your points as clearly you feel strongly about them.

 

[North_Sky]

You know...bank robbers, killers, child exploiters, sex addicts, criminals, drug dealers, bad behavioral habits, noisy, shouting, violent, liars, ....all the bad apples.

I'll do my best next time.
• https://www.scientificamerican.com/...-because-of-ignorance-not-because-of-opioids/

 

[Wes]

Slithering Subjectivists?

 

[North_Sky]

More like surfing ...

 

[Vasr]

Might help if you made your meaning less cryptic then so as to avoid misunderstandings. It read as pretty straight forward so I was confused. I would ask what people do to qualify as bandits, corrupted, manipulators, selfish, greedy, exploiters in the context of the thread and your post. I am having trouble making the connection and I would like to better understand your points as clearly you feel strongly about them.

On addiction to ignorance ... (not ignorant addicts)

“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.” - Isaac Asimov

Asimov was being too parochial. US does not have a monopoly on those.

Past and current discussions on climate change, the pandemic, vaccines, etc., keep driving that point home.

 

[North_Sky]

I like that.

 

[Racheski]

On addiction to ignorance ... (not ignorant addicts)

“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.” - Isaac Asimov

Asimov was being too parochial. US does not have a monopoly on those.

Past and current discussions on climate change, the pandemic, vaccines, etc., keep driving that point home.

...flat earth, faking the moon landings, evolution. Ah the spice of life!

 

[North_Sky]

On vaccine, and on hope ...

• https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/07...f-it-being-highly-effective-is-not-great.html

 

[North_Sky]

New Zealand is a country I've been observing for a long time, and for good reason ...
• https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-but-warns-against-complacency-idUSKCN2550NY

No herd immunity there, just intelligent good practice, smart and good common sense, respectable social behavior.

* It looks like Michael Fremer in that above picture (grey hair and glasses, third from left).
_____

Bonus: https://phys.org/news/2020-08-inexpensive-accessible-device-visual-proof.amp

More: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/07/sciadv.abd3083.full

 

[North_Sky]

On herd immunity ...
• https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...19-optimism-on-t-cells-and-herd-immunity.html

The world is working @ very fast pace on vaccines, including Russia.

T cells (antibodies)? ...Work in progress ...

Schools reopening? Good luck to us. Looking so far @ what's happening here and there, masks wearing should be universal mandatory, self-distancing same, ...and it's going to be real real tough ... IMHO.

We're only few months into this (7 roughly), and 3/4 million deaths (tomorrow), spikes are surging again in Spain, Italy, UK, France, ... and cases accelerating in India, Brazil, Mexico. Germany and Australia are also experiencing new cases.

In the USA they go roughly from 50,000 to 70,000 new cases a day. And fast testing is still not available.

Sundays and Mondays are always slow days.

My prayers go to the 750,000 dead (tomorrow) and to all the members of their families, friends, relatives, cousins, aunts, uncles, granddaughters, grandfathers, moms and dads, and the entire world...7.8 billion people affected by this virulent disturbance.

Some relatives visited Lake Louise just this past weekend. No places to park, they left.
They should be back by now, to Banff, Alberta...again.

Best is to vacation by camper, motorhome...to be fully self-sufficient, independent.
Forget the planes, forget the trains, forget the buses, forget the cars and the bikes.
...Unless you can sleep by your car or bike in a field under a tree by a cascade or chute or river or lake or ocean with nobody around...up the mountain in a forest.

 

[North_Sky]

Stat: https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/10...portunity-to-beat-back-covid-19-is-narrowing/

 

[North_Sky]

And in regards to New Zealand latest news on new cases, four, effectively breaking an amazing and highly respectable and notable free 102-day run Coronavirus zero cases ...

• https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53741091