Jeff Bezos' space plans

[Blumlein 88]

https://arstechnica.com/science/201...weeping-vision-for-humanitys-future-in-space/

Hope you get a discount or some first in line benefit for having Prime. At the very least maybe they'll make some new Amazon series called O'neil cyldiners.

 

[Ceburaska]

Desperately trying to not shoehorn some gag about The Expanse into this.

 

[Frank Dernie]

I have always been more interested in the deep oceans than space.
Also I am pretty convinced that climate change and the plague of humans on the environment will mean that we will, as a species, be dealing with mass population collapse due to starvation or territorial wars not space travel within my grandchildren’s lifetime

 

[Blumlein 88]

I have always been more interested in the deep oceans than space.
Also I am pretty convinced that climate change and the plague of humans on the environment will mean that we will, as a species, be dealing with mass population collapse due to starvation or territorial wars not space travel within my grandchildren’s lifetime

That is Bezos motivation. He talks about 3% energy growth. How currently a solar farm the size of Nevada could supply everyone with power. In a couple centuries at 3% energy growth the entire planet would have to be a solar farm.

I've read an article a decade or so back looking at such stuff. It seems 3% energy growth and economic growth is what makes for a good technological civilization that we have enjoyed the last 150 years or so. That however will by necessity be a transitory situation. We'll have to figure out how to do this with much less growth or none. Or suffer the collapse.

One example in that article was how 3% growth starting when the pyramids of Egypt were built until now would have by this time consumed the entire output of the sun, and used up all the materials in the solar system. So something has to give. Most likely is humanity will keep doing what its doing until it can't be done anymore. That would fit the pattern.

A small bit of optimism. I don't think the big collapse will occur as soon as your grandchildren's lifetime. We tend to over-estimate short term changes and under-estimate long term changes. I think things will manage well enough for a couple more centuries. By which time of course no one cares what I think. With the arrogant assumption anyone cares now of course.

 

[RayDunzl]

 

[Soniclife]

Some fascinating graphs at the following link.
https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth
You would think something has to give looking at the trends, but I've no idea.

 

[jasonq997]

Some fascinating graphs at the following link.
https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth
You would think something has to give looking at the trends, but I've no idea.

Well, most likely positive things since the world's population is healthier and more educated than it has ever been. Therefore, we have more people doing useful, productive things. The level of doomsday nonsense we are subjected to because of positive developments is amazing. The website you quote is an excellent one. I recommend this piece from it:

https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-global-living-conditions-in-5-charts

 

[Blumlein 88]

Okay so this is encouraging. Rat and mouse utopia with balance always crashes. So those marxist, socialist, communist, godless, environmentalists are trying to kill us all off in the collapse phase of the population curve.

The research in the film indicates we just need to keep finding new places to continually exploit and colonize. So going off planet is clearly the thing to do. Balanced utopia is bad. With 3% expansion starting with this planet we can continue for about 600 years before we'd use up all the habitable planets in the milky way. But that doesn't include building our own planets or adapting some not ideal for human life. I don't think we have anything to worry about.

 

[Frank Dernie]

I don't think the big collapse will occur as soon as your grandchildren's lifetime. We tend to over-estimate short term changes and under-estimate long term changes. I think things will manage well enough for a couple more centuries.

I hope you are right, but fear you are not. It isn't just climate change but environmental destruction which is a concern. I would expect shortages of food and antibiotic resistant diseases will be causing sufficient worldwide stress for war and famine in the next 50 years. I see zero reason why not, and nobody doing enough about it until too late - I suspect it is too late now.
Will there be enough fuel left on earth to put in the rockets to send people off to colonise other planets by the time the powers that be realise they need to be on the rockets? I think certainly not...

 

[Frank Dernie]

Well, most likely positive things since the world's population is healthier and more educated than it has ever been. Therefore, we have more people doing useful, productive things. The level of doomsday nonsense we are subjected to because of positive developments is amazing. The website you quote is an excellent one. I recommend this piece from it:

https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-global-living-conditions-in-5-charts

I rather think the idea of unconstrained growth in a world with limited resource is delusional.
I could go on about loss of habitat but here is not the place really.

 

[jasonq997]

I rather think the idea of unconstrained growth in a world with limited resource is delusional.
I could go on about loss of habitat but here is not the place really.

Growth is a good thing for human beings.

 

[RayDunzl]

Growth is a good thing for human beings.

Yes.

Until it's not.

 

[Sal1950]

I find it saddening how pessimistic some here are towards mankind and their ability-intent to do the right things..
We've made tremendous advancements in the recognition and concern over environmental issues and made huge improvements in air quality here in the US. I believe 200 years from now we'll be much closer to the view of the future presented in the Star Trek movies than the doom and gloom that's been put forth here lately.
And in the mean time, just to sleep soundly at night, a position of "Peace Thru Strength" will see us thru.

In the area of space travel, I find these exciting times in a manner we haven't really seen since the 60's.
Some again are dreaming of a future that includes the greatly improved technology that will allow us access to a universe we've only dreamed about since the beginning of time. GO Bezos, Musk and like, I can see the rockets taking off at Kennedy from my yard and get goosebumps with each one.
As it's been since the first Airforce unit, those who control the sky's will control the earth.

 

[Sal1950]

Yes.

Until it's not.

Then your worm food.

 

[RayDunzl]

I believe 200 years from now we'll be much closer to the view of the future presented in the Star Trek movies than the doom and gloom that's been put forth here lately.

The Lawyers will stop it all, unless we can make it profitable for them not to.

 

[RayDunzl]

Some again are dreaming of a future that includes the greatly improved technology that will allow us access to a universe we've only dreamed about since the beginning of time.

Hyperbole!

The nearest known solar system to ours is 26,000,000,000,000 miles distant.

At ten million miles per hour - 2,777 miles per second - that sounds exciting and fast! - 297 years one way.

We can do about 35,000 mph, maybe, 9.7 miles per second, with a small payload, barely more than needed just to escape Earth's gravity.

Need a new (exceptionally different) method of propulsion beyond the bottle rockets we're using now.

A favorite picture:

Larger version here: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/16/S-IC_engines_and_Von_Braun.jpg

 

[Blumlein 88]

The Lawyers will stop it all, unless we can make it profitable for them not to.

Looks like they found a place in the future.

 

[Blumlein 88]

Hyperbole!

The nearest known solar system to ours is 26,000,000,000,000 miles distant.

At ten million miles per hour - 2,777 miles per second - that sounds exciting and fast! - 297 years one way.

We can do about 35,000 mph, maybe, 9.7 miles per second, with a small payload, barely more than needed just to escape Earth's gravity.

Need a new (exceptionally different) method of propulsion beyond the bottle rockets we're using now.

A favorite picture:

View attachment 26072

Larger version here: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/16/S-IC_engines_and_Von_Braun.jpg

Yeah, there are a few problems that seem insurmountable. On the other hand, your information in this post indicates there is lots and lots and lots of space out there in space.

I mean maybe we can alter humans a little bit, make them smarter, very small (so they are easy to move around with less energy), and make them live a long time so that 300 years is a long trip, but not so bad. Simply too many possibilities to think it can't be done somehow.

 

[Sal1950]

I mean maybe we can alter humans a little bit, make them smarter, very small (so they are easy to move around with less energy), and make them live a long time so that 300 years is a long trip, but not so bad. Simply too many possibilities to think it can't be done somehow.

I may be rushing things a bit at 200 years but 3019 will be a time and place we can't even begin to imagine today.
Did you guys catch the National Geo series Year Million?
Although a Hail Mary pass at crystal ball vision, it really sparks the imagination on what might be someday. Way Kool.
http://www.natgeotv.com/int/year-million
https://www.livescience.com/59115-year-million-series-explores-future-of-humanity.html

 

[Frank Dernie]

Growth is a good thing for human beings.

It certainly has been but growth can (obviously) not go on indefinitely on a finite planet.
It must come to an end since the earth's resources are limited and the plague of humans has got to the stage where it is destroying them much faster than they can renew themselves.
My main concern is that nothing is being done about it, and as an old bloke, experience has shown nothing will be.
Humans are greedy, ruthless and selfish, to varying degrees. The sort of individulas who become "successful" in business and politics tend mainly to be the most ruthless, selfish and greedy. These are the sort of people who will act only in their personal short term interest, anything long term costing money won't happen until it is too late. They will keep enough people ignorant or in denial for that to happen. It has always been like that.
Expert data will be ignored or denied.
My experience is in motor racing.
After Nelson Piquet had a huge accident hitting the wall at Tamburello, Imola in "my" car (1987) giving him a concussion which was (slightly) life changing I raised the issue at the FIA Technical Working group (of which I was a member for decades) and was told nothing could be done because of the track geography. Michele Alboreto had a bad accident there in 1991in testing, same response, Gerhard Berger had a huge fiery accident there at the Grand Prix in 1991 he was lucky and only survived due to superb work from the marshalls getting him out of the car quickly and I got the same response from the governing body.
Ayrton Senna was killed there in 1994 and the same powers that be found a way to make it safer.
I was not the only expert advising the same thing but the leaders think they know best, IME they rarely do.