Tropical Cyclone Irma

[NorthSky]

But that last one from Ray is a fake, mine is the original painting, from the museum.

Irma she's no picnic; Barbuda is 95% unhabitable...they took a very bad beating around there, some small islands are part of the ocean now. St Martin was also severely hit, and it is not pretty what's coming up for another chain of small islands, North West of Puerto Rico...Turks and Caicos
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41182991

 

[RayDunzl]

But that last one from Ray is a fake, mine is the original painting, from the museum.

Vincent van Gogh
The Starry Night
Saint Rémy, June 1889

https://www.moma.org/collection/works/79802

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Here's a nice animated recap of the National Weather Service's published guestimates for Irma's track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

 

[oivavoi]

Had forgotten that you were living in Florida, Ray. Stay safe.

This is already one for the record books: https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Records.pdf

I have an eerie feeling that Irma might turn out to be much worse than expected. If it intensifies even further before making landfall - which could happen, according to the meteorologists I follow on twitter - then worst case scenario is that it brings down big buildings. Almost unimaginable, but physically possible. This storm already defies many common asssumptions about hurricanes (for example hat they weaken down after a while).

If it had been me living there, I would have put the hifi in the safest place I could find, and jumped on a bus/car/plane out of the state right away. You need to make your own choices, guys. But better safe than sorry!

 

[RayDunzl]

Had forgotten that you were living in Florida, Ray.

Sometimes I forget, too...

The strongest winds are near the eyewall. The force of the wind increases with the square of the speed, so, faster gets ugly quickly, I suppose.

Watch water make a vortex draining in your sink. It doesn't spin fast except close to the center.

The forecast, which from the archived data I've been looking at (above), has been pretty accurate at 3 days out. maybe the
next forecast will include me in the (light blue) 3day part.

The forecast track below puts me 100+ miles from the Zone of Maximum Distress.

Ask again Thursday night... Then Friday... Then Saturday...

Puerto Rico:
(Sorry - pasted an updating picture so, nothing to see here)

Rain Totals:

 

[Wayne]

@RayDunzl & @Sal1950

Above all, stay safe. Do what you need to before it is too late.

These things are not to be shrugged off, say Houston!

Best of luck, you may need it.

 

[Sal1950]

Sometimes I forget, too...

Your posts aren't very encouraging Ray.
But greatly appreciated.

 

[Reginald Addison]

There is plenty of evidence that man is at fault.It's too late now. We are going to redesign civilization to handle it.

 

[Sal1950]

There is plenty of evidence that man is at fault.It's too late now. We are going to redesign civilization to handle it.

There's also plenty of evidence that folks twist things up as they go along to suit their political agendas.
What we know for sure is that climate change has been a fact of life for the history of the universe.
Might as well blame it on the Gods having a bad attitude towards the minions.

 

[Reginald Addison]

My first summer job was at the HUD. My boss was in charge of flood insurance. The government has done almost nothing to deal with hurricanes and flooding. It's similar to house fires. Much of what happened in Katrina was predictable and preventable. We have seemed to learn nothing from each annual disaster.
Let me give an example -after 911 have we developed plans to evacuate high rise buildings?

 

[RayDunzl]

Let me give an example -after 911 have we developed plans to evacuate high rise buildings?

Not me!

I don't have a high-rise to contend with.

 

[Ronm1]

Irma does not exist. It is fake news. The pics are a liberal government conspiracy devised by NASA to perpetuate the climate change BS. Rush to pill popper has spoken.

 

[Reginald Addison]

There's also plenty of evidence that folks twist things up as they go along to suit their political agendas.
What we know for sure is that climate change has been a fact of life for the history of the universe.
Might as well blame it on the Gods having a bad attitude towards the minions.

Certainly climate change has occurred naturally. What was absent from those eras was manmade industrial polution. Has anyone documented the presence of greenhouse gasses during those eras?

 

[Reginald Addison]

Irma does not exist. It is fake news. The pics are a liberal government conspiracy devised by NASA to perpetuate the climate change BS. Rush to pill popper has spoken.

I am pretty sure NASA is not the agency that deal with climate change. Nevertheless it has been my experience the government tends to deny such iissues less the be forced to develop an expensive and controversial solution.
They also prefer to not stir up the lunatic fringe.

 

[amirm]

Our relatives are getting out (south florida). Apparently that is hard to do as they are trying to fly out of there and flights are booked solid.

Was reading that no building is safe in category 5 storm???

 

[Ronm1]

Was reading that no building is safe in category 5 storm???

think of a tornado that wide. Scary thought ain't it. Plus it hangs around awhile.

 

[Reginald Addison]

See Saffir-Simpson scale.

 

[oivavoi]

Some of the latest forecasts turning it further West. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905857734746222593
This essentially means that all of Florida could be impacted. I guess the NHC will provide new advice soon.

 

[DonH56]

Ouch. My uncle lives in Pensacola, hopefully out of it...

My dad and friends were in MS when Katrina went through. In some places it looked like someone took a giant weedwacker and topped groves of trees at about 20 or 30 feet off the ground. And they were not little trees...

 

[FrantzM]

It looks like we in Haiti will not get the worse of it ... ooooof!!

For once our Government showed concern and awareness ... and a certain amount of readiness. Hope we don't have to test these.

Hope it dies down on its way to FL, so far it hasn't weakened that much.

 

[Ronm1]

Hope it dies down on its way to FL, so far it hasn't weakened that much.

TMK
It usually takes a large landfall and/or colder water temperatures to weaken a storm. Hence the CC mantra of warming ocean temperatures a harbinger of stronger storms being more frequent.