Car Powertrain of the Future - E-Fuels, Fuel cells or Battery based

[Salt]

Good article on E-fuels. Why the math does not work.

The math do not work, as one fact is overseen: windmills stand still though there is 10 or more knots on them and solar energy is sold in summer for minus:
missed capacities for genarating hydrogene for free (or any other energy 'capacitator').

 

[MediumRare]

This is a technology masterpiece. Unfortunately, it will likely never see widespread adoption due to the insane regulatory push to completely eliminate fossil fuel use. I also wonder how long a small motor with 600 Hp will last. High boost pressures are likely to cause premature failure of the piston rings.

It might see the light of day if it can be manufactured at a reasonable price. There is probably just one more generation of mass-market ICE innovation yet to be done, although Porsche has said they will keep the 911 ICE around as long as they can. For people who are not cost-conscious, syn-fuels will persist, just at a huge cost penalty (perhaps 50% to 100% more expensive that today’s gasoline).

 

[Ron Texas]

It might see the light of day if it can be manufactured at a reasonable price. There is probably just one more generation of mass-market ICE innovation yet to be done, although Porsche has said they will keep the 911 ICE around as long as they can. For people who are not cost-conscious, syn-fuels will persist, just at a huge cost penalty (perhaps 50% to 100% more expensive that today’s gasoline).

Syn fuel isn't going to happen. A project to make synthetic jet fuel powered by a wind farm produces output costing $50 per gallon, about 6 times what the petroleum based stuff costs. In the US corn based ethanol uses more energy to make than the ethanol contains. We use it anyway because it's an octane booster. The industry tried MTBE, but found out it easily penetrated the ground and got into the water supply.

It's basically a fools errand to pursue expensive decarbonization schemes in the US and EU when the rest of the world, especially China, is adding to their carbon emissions faster than anyone else can get rid of it. It's all politics. Our policy makers want to show they are doing something to fix a problem that many are afraid of. Regulating energy is a giant governmental power grab. It's also a new way to raise revenue with carbon taxes. I won't be alive to hear the screams when we are too broke to keep subsidizing this giant mistake and they start charging highway taxes on EV's instead of cutting $7,500 checks to upper middle class leftist buyers. Electric bills will look like mortgage payments. That's when heads will roll and the insanity will end.

The money would be better spent on flood control, wildfire control and spraying sulfites in the upper atmosphere.

Cheap energy brought us the prosperity we have today. Take it away, and the world will be rolled back to 1790.

 

[mhardy6647]

The hummer EV weighs over 5 tons.

Does that mean one has to stop at weigh stations when driving one?
(I am not being entirely facetious - the signs often say "All trucks - commercial vehicles over 10,000 GVW must stop")

Obviously the Hummer's not usually a commercial vehicle, but it is truck-ish.

 

[Salt]

Syn fuel isn't going to happen. A project to make synthetic jet fuel powered by a wind farm produces output costing $50 per gallon, about 6 times what the petroleum based stuff costs. In the US corn based ethanol uses more energy to make than the ethanol contains. We use it anyway because it's an octane booster. The industry tried MTBE, but found out it easily penetrated the ground and got into the water supply.

It's basically a fools errand to pursue expensive decarbonization schemes in the US and EU when the rest of the world, especially China, is adding to their carbon emissions faster than anyone else can get rid of it. It's all politics. Our policy makers want to show they are doing something to fix a problem that many are afraid of. Regulating energy is a giant governmental power grab. It's also a new way to raise revenue with carbon taxes. I won't be alive to hear the screams when we are too broke to keep subsidizing this giant mistake and they start charging highway taxes on EV's instead of cutting $7,500 checks to upper middle class leftist buyers. Electric bills will look like mortgage payments. That's when heads will roll and the insanity will end.

The money would be better spent on flood control, wildfire control and spraying sulfites in the upper atmosphere.

Cheap energy brought us the prosperity we have today. Take it away, and the world will be rolled back to 1790.

?

 

[Timcognito]

cutting $7,500 checks to upper middle class leftist buyers.

Elon Musk?

 

[Ron Texas]

?

Brevity is the soul of wit. However, what I wrote is clear enough even if it isn't what a lot of people want to hear.

 

[Timcognito]

Electric bills will look like mortgage payments.

But half of gasoline cost with all its processing, transportation and middlemen. There is big ball of gas fusion 93 million miles away that sends free energy to photo voltaic cells that convert it to electricity that goes into an existing and expanding system that is virtually in every structure in the modern world that can power your car or heatpump or cloths dryer. It also creates the wind and rain and I believe there may be some near free energy there to.

 

[antcollinet]

I won't be alive to hear the screams when we are too broke

You're lucky you also (probably) won't be alive to hear the screams when the food supply collapses due farm land becoming one huge dust bowl.

The money would be better spent on flood control, wildfire control and spraying sulfites in the upper atmosphere.

There'll never be enough money for what's coming if we do nothing to fix it - and that's if it's not already too late.

Cheap energy brought us the prosperity we have today. Take it away, and the world will be rolled back to 1790.

Possibly - but the era of cheap energy is almost over anyway. It was put in the ground millions of years ago, and when we go over the precipice of peak oil we don't have any more dinosaurs to make more for us. It is a done deal. Best we invest in some alternatives.

 

[MediumRare]

Syn fuel isn't going to happen. A project to make synthetic jet fuel powered by a wind farm produces output costing $50 per gallon, about 6 times what the petroleum based stuff costs. In the US corn based ethanol uses more energy to make than the ethanol contains. We use it anyway because it's an octane booster. ...

Cheap energy brought us the prosperity we have today. Take it away, and the world will be rolled back to 1790.

Syn fuels are already "happening" for aviation because the EU has mandated them to be blended into Jet-A. The current cost is 6X Jet-A but will go down to 2-3X with technology. The increase in airfares on that basis will be about 6%. Hence, there is no economic justification, just a climate-based rationale.

Regarding cheap energy, I agree it has contributed to our prosperity; the good news is it's getting even cheaper. It will require broader electrification (and hence, capital spending) but that has real positive ROI - something dividends and stock buybacks do not, so in the long run will boost the economy.

 

[Ron Texas]

You're lucky you also (probably) won't be alive to hear the screams when the food supply collapses due farm land becoming one huge dust bowl.


There'll never be enough money for what's coming if we do nothing to fix it - and that's if it's not already too late.


Possibly - but the era of cheap energy is almost over anyway. It was put in the ground millions of years ago, and when we go over the precipice of peak oil we don't have any more dinosaurs to make more for us. It is a done deal. Best we invest in some alternatives.

Lots of speculative BS. The main cause of agricultural land loss is bad agricultural practices. Increased levels of CO2 help plants grow and survive with less water. It's this kind of thinking which leads to bad policy.

 

[Ron Texas]

Syn fuels are already "happening" for aviation because the EU has mandated them to be blended into Jet-A. The current cost is 6X Jet-A but will go down to 2-3X with technology. The increase in airfares on that basis will be about 6%. Hence, there is no economic justification, just a climate-based rationale.

Regarding cheap energy, I agree it has contributed to our prosperity; the good news is it's getting even cheaper. It will require broader electrification (and hence, capital spending) but that has real positive ROI - something dividends and stock buybacks do not, so in the long run will boost the economy.

The EU approach to jet fuel is a perfect example of a very high cost per ton of carbon solution. Maybe the real objective is to get people to fly less due to high airfares without taking the political hit from tax increases. As for stock buybacks and dividends these things create demand for stock which allows companies to raise capital to create goods and jobs. Sounds to me like you have been hanging out with Bernie and AOC too much.

 

[Timcognito]

The EU approach to jet fuel is a perfect example of a very high cost per ton of carbon solution. Maybe the real objective is to get people to fly less due to high airfares without taking the political hit from tax increases. As for stock buybacks and dividends these things create demand for stock which allows companies to raise capital to create goods and jobs. Sounds to me like you have been hanging out with Bernie and AOC too much.

 

[antcollinet]

Lots of speculative BS. The main cause of agricultural land loss is bad agricultural practices. Increased levels of CO2 help plants grow and survive with less water. It's this kind of thinking which leads to bad policy.

You're aware that there is already a water crisis in western USA, with no known solution to fix it. Have you seen the pictures of water levels at the hoover dam?

Last year my sister sent me pictures of the smog in PA coming from western states burning. This year she sent me pictures of smog in virginia coming from Canada burining FFS. What next year - will I be sending her pictures of smog in London from the smoke of the midwest turning into the aforementioned dustbowls, coming over to rightpondia?

And peak oil: Some think we are already there. Who knows though, perhaps it won't be in our lifetimes. I'm pretty certain my kids will live through it, although there are signs we might avoid it by investments in renewables.

 

[MediumRare]

Lots of speculative BS. The main cause of agricultural land loss is bad agricultural practices. Increased levels of CO2 help plants grow and survive with less water. It's this kind of thinking which leads to bad policy.

Ron, what do you make of this? Read the article to see what the insurance industry economists have to say. https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2021/12/14/645544.htm

Separately, CO2 helps plants grow but so does the right amount of water and the right temperature in the right places.

 

[MediumRare]

The EU approach to jet fuel is a perfect example of a very high cost per ton of carbon solution. Maybe the real objective is to get people to fly less due to high airfares without taking the political hit from tax increases. As for stock buybacks and dividends these things create demand for stock which allows companies to raise capital to create goods and jobs. Sounds to me like you have been hanging out with Bernie and AOC too much.

LOL, I think you're confusing cash outflows to investors with cash outflows for capital investment as the way corporate cash creates goods and jobs. I happen to be a professional investor so I hope I got that right.

 

[pablolie]

Actually I think the future is about reusability, and that in 15 years few of us will even feel the need to own a car. At least to me, a self-driving EV (or with any other drive train, for that matter) offers zero pride of ownership, zero driving enjoyment, hence I may as well "uber" around in self-driving vehicles. Even the days when owning a Tesla made people "ooooh" are long over, they are as common as Priuses.

 

[Timcognito]

On Topic FYI

3 key EV questions on the climate law's anniversary

Here's what to watch as the Inflation Reduction Act's incentives start to kick in.

www.eenews.net

 

[antcollinet]

Actually I think the future is about reusability, and that in 15 years few of us will even feel the need to own a car. At least to me, a self-driving EV (or with any other drive train, for that matter) offers zero pride of ownership, zero driving enjoyment, hence I may as well "uber" around in self-driving vehicles. Even the days when owning a Tesla made people "ooooh" are long over, they are as common as Priuses.

Fully agree. In fact in not much longer than that 15 years time frame it will become illegal for humans to drive vehicles on the public roads. Self driving cars will be so much safer.

We won't need any cars parked on streets (a blight on the urban landscape). Cars will drop you at home, then go park themselves in out of town spaces - or just go get the next passenger.

 

[Ron Texas]

LOL, I think you're confusing cash outflows to investors with cash outflows for capital investment as the way corporate cash creates goods and jobs. I happen to be a professional investor so I hope I got that right.

Stock buybacks can be good or bad. Some studies show that companies tend to buy back their stock when the price is high and lose in the long run. Many stock buybacks are intended to fund employee stock options without dilution. It's pretty tough to argue against that. As for dividends, the vast majority of companies only pay out a fraction of their earnings. Advocating against dividends is like advocating that lenders should not collect interest. As I said before, these things make stock more marketable which leads to capital formation. If dividends and stock buybacks were outlawed, equity financing would collapse.

As for being a professional investor, I don't know what you are claiming. Sounds like someone who is rich enough to not have to work. Maybe we should outlaw bitcoin first. Crypto is useless except for funding illegal transactions. The stuff might as well be tulip bulbs.