Zero-emission vehicles, their batteries & subsidies/rebates for them.- No politics regarding the subsidies!

[JeffS7444]

Well, see, this is a point of contention. It costs hundreds of billions or many trillions to do something, so some us don't want to support doing something just for the point of doing something; that won't really address the problem. If the global warming crisis doesn't get a sufficiently global solution, and we spent our wealth on structural changes that don't make a difference, then there's less wealth available to implement the mitigations that might be necessary because warming is an insufficiently addressed reality.

The future can be glitchy, that's just the nature of the thing, it's one big beta-test. Mistakes will be made, someone's going to be pissed off about it. But USA car enthusiasts have been up in arms before, when the Clean Air Act outlawed leaded automotive fuels, and mandated emission controls, for instance. And true, some of those early efforts were terrible. And yet, today's performance cars put yesteryear's to shame. Yes there are thousands of practical matters which will need sorting out, but in many cases, I think they'll just need to be sorted out once we're underway. It may be more ad hoc than master-planned, but maybe that's just the way it needs to be.

Seems to me that if the world's going to electrify anyhow, then the USA may as well be a leader, rather than another Soviet Union, with massive but obsolete industries. And it's not all about government expenditures! We're talking about building a new economy, and who knows what other spinoffs we'll get as a result. Commercialization of GAN semiconductors was just one tiny result to date.

 

[blueone]

This is a pretty good article on the response from the auto industry:

California's 2035 EV Mandate and What It Could Mean for You

Zero-emissions mandates won't be limited to the Golden State alone.

www.cnet.com

Apparently, 15 states are thought to follow the CA initiative. That should be interesting, and should be California's needed refit of their sorry electrical grid and generation plan. The automakers appear to be sucking up to Newsom and CARB, as usual. But as you can read, 17 states have filed to have CARB's charter revoked in federal court. Unknown how that'll turn out. I suspect it'll go the Supreme Court. I am so glad I moved out of CA a few years ago. I predict a mess with EV availability, EV pricing, and the electrical grid, and I'd rather be an observer than a participant.

 

[Chromatischism]

Just wanted to say that new Blazer EV looks pretty decent. Been a while since I was attracted to a Chevy, so good on them.

 

[Chromatischism]

While various governments could invoke eminent domain to solve the problems, elected officials hate that process, because seizing private lands or demanding unwanted easements often gets them unelected.

Unfortunately, not here in Nebraska. Our lovely Republican Senators used eminent domain to benefit TransCanada and force the KXL pipeline through some homeowners' properties. Caused a shitstorm, but they're still in office. Some thick voter skulls here.

 

[Marc v E]

This is a pretty good article on the response from the auto industry:

California's 2035 EV Mandate and What It Could Mean for You

Zero-emissions mandates won't be limited to the Golden State alone.

www.cnet.com

Apparently, 15 states are thought to follow the CA initiative. That should be interesting, and should be California's needed refit of their sorry electrical grid and generation plan. The automakers appear to be sucking up to Newsom and CARB, as usual. But as you can read, 17 states have filed to have CARB's charter revoked in federal court. Unknown how that'll turn out. I suspect it'll go the Supreme Court. I am so glad I moved out of CA a few years ago. I predict a mess with EV availability, EV pricing, and the electrical grid, and I'd rather be an observer than a participant.

If I follow the curve of EV uptake by Tony Seba, about 80% of auto sales is an ev in about 2028 iirc. That would make the 2035 deadline redundant but for a few very late adopters.

Regarding the much needed ramp up of production: at the moment, I only see that happening at Tesla and some Chinese companies. The rest claim the do it, but I don't see it. Basically it means the big OEM's are in a squeeze somewhere between now and 2028.

My own analysis says that around 2024/2025 we will start to see OEM'S faltering. Much earlier than predicted. The big automakers succeeded for decades to stall the rise of ev's. But this time, thanks to Tesla and China's start up ev's there's nowhere to hide.

The messy production uptake and therefor elevated prices will resolve in 2023/2024 I think. Inflation of the parts evs are made of are starting to stall and fall. More falling than rising according to Tesla. In 2023 Tesla will have doubled production. Etc etc

 

[Blumlein 88]

If I follow the curve of EV uptake by Tony Seba, about 80% of auto sales is an ev in about 2028 iirc. That would make the 2035 deadline redundant but for a few very late adopters.

Regarding the much needed ramp up of production: at the moment, I only see that happening at Tesla and some Chinese companies. The rest claim the do it, but I don't see it. Basically it means the big OEM's are in a squeeze somewhere between now and 2028.

My own analysis says that around 2024/2025 we will start to see OEM'S faltering. Much earlier than predicted. The big automakers succeeded for decades to stall the rise of ev's. But this time, thanks to Tesla and China's start up ev's there's nowhere to hide.

I think they are really ramping up production. Just not many are on line yet. I live near one of the large Mercedes battery factories and where they will make EV's. Those are built, those are huge facilities, and while not rolling out by the thousands yet, they soon will be. I've seen the Hyundai facilities in the US and they too while barely started have the capacity which they'll be ramping up as fast as they can.

 

[Marc v E]

I think they are really ramping up production. Just not many are on line yet. I live near one of the large Mercedes battery factories and where they will make EV's. Those are built, those are huge facilities, and while not rolling out by the thousands yet, they soon will be. I've seen the Hyundai facilities in the US and they too while barely started have the capacity which they'll be ramping up as fast as they can.

I hope they really do and see the urgency.
While Diess was pushing VW he was thrown out.
Hyundai might make it because they seem serious and have been producing evs in quite large volumes already.
Mercedes...wow... I really hope they can ramp up before it's too late. I don't have big expectations...
They have been stalling so long with hybrid platforms, it's only recently they have a pure EV platform.
I will check the numbers but I'm expecting to see a very low percentage of Mercedes cars to be evs.
They really need to be 100% ev in 2028 to remain the size they are now.

 

[Ken1951]

The solar option with a Powerwall is way too expensive and complicated for my home, and I don't want a Tesla. We're thinking about a 24KW Generac natural gas powered generator. Much cheaper overall, and IMO a far better solution. For one thing, no ugly panels on my roof. We wouldn't get a big win from solar because our average electric bill is less than $200, and we only get two somewhat more expensive months.

We have solar panels and our average monthly electric bill is now less than $40.

 

[Ken1951]

My county banned natural gas in new construction and renovation of homes.

Some bans of gas use in homes is due to health reasons from leakage in to home rather than a climate change reason.

 

[Colonel7]

We have solar panels and our average monthly electric bill is now less than $40.

Economically speaking, you pre-purchased your electricity upfront (bearing in mind the panel life efficiency and inverter(s)) when you bought the panels + install costs. That + your electric bill. I'd think your bill has a large portion of service charges rather than kW/h costs.

 

[Ken1951]

Economically speaking, you pre-purchased your electricity upfront (bearing in mind the panel life efficiency and inverter(s)) when you bought the panels + install costs. That + your electric bill. I'd think your bill has a large portion of service charges rather than kW/h costs.

Yep. Our monthly cost for "fixed" costs from the utility company is around $10. I guess, rightly or wrongly, we just "feel" better about having them. I know it's not even a drop in the proverbial bucket.

 

[Timcognito]

We wouldn't get a big win from solar because our average electric bill is less than $200, and we only get two somewhat more expensive months.

I have Tesla's smallest system, it runs my house all night and all I pay for is NG. I even switched my dryer off NG back to electric. Pay off will six years, four more years to FREE electricity. I plan to to buy some kind of plug-in car so that may change. I looked into the generator thing and found that long term, panels plus battery is much cheaper for me here where the weather is mild, plus no noise.

 

[blueone]

Some bans of gas use in homes is due to health reasons from leakage in to home rather than a climate change reason.

None I’ve ever heard of.

 

[blueone]

This problem wins my irony of the day award:

US CO2 shortage: Strains set to continue throughout the coming months

Tightening in supply or supply shortages of carbon dioxide (CO2) are continuing to hit businesses across the US, with strains set to continue throughout the coming months.

www.gasworld.com

 

[Chromatischism]

Some bans of gas use in homes is due to health reasons from leakage in to home rather than a climate change reason.

True. And there's still the exhaust from burning gas in homes that causes poor indoor air quality. The ideal build is becoming mostly an all electric home with heat pumps, induction stove, and no fireplaces.

 

[Chromatischism]

This problem wins my irony of the day award:

US CO2 shortage: Strains set to continue throughout the coming months

Tightening in supply or supply shortages of carbon dioxide (CO2) are continuing to hit businesses across the US, with strains set to continue throughout the coming months.

www.gasworld.com

Why is that ironic? It's not like we get our CO2 from the air, but we COULD if we wanted to. There's 2x the pre-industrial amount now, so it's ripe for the taking.

 

[Blumlein 88]

True. And there's still the exhaust from burning gas in homes that causes poor indoor air quality. The ideal build is becoming mostly an all electric home with heat pumps, induction stove, and no fireplaces.

That's how my house is except for the electric fireplace.

 

[blueone]

Why is that ironic?

1. Because I said so.
2. Because I'm so tired of hearing about CO2 this and CO2 that, and I saw an article about a shortage of it.

 

[Marc v E]

I hope they really do and see the urgency.
While Diess was pushing VW he was thrown out.
Hyundai might make it because they seem serious and have been producing evs in quite large volumes already.
Mercedes...wow... I really hope they can ramp up before it's too late. I don't have big expectations...
They have been stalling so long with hybrid platforms, it's only recently they have a pure EV platform.
I will check the numbers but I'm expecting to see a very low percentage of Mercedes cars to be evs.
They really need to be 100% ev in 2028 to remain the size they are now.

It actually turned out to be 4.4%.
They increased their sales (and most important, their production as ev are almost always production constraint) by 200%.
Let's see where that takes them over the years:

2020 54,000 of a total 2,500,000 : 2.2%
2021 99,000 of a total 2,420,000 : 4.1%
2022 45.000 in the first half of a total 1,000,000 : 4.5%

It's nice to see Mercedes ramping to 10.000's of bev's a year. They seem to be able to mass produce. Although at 100.000 a year it's 1/10 th of Tesla. What's even more striking is that their overall car sales are going down.

If they continue this trend in the most positive manner they will produce a doubling of ev sales every 3 years:
2022 99,000 of a total 2,000,000
2023 200,000 of a total 1,900,000
2024 200,000 of a total 1,800,000
2025 400,000 of 1,700,000
2028 800,000 of a total 1,400,000

Because I see a downward trend in ice car sales I expect they this will continue. All said and done, they could make it as a company, albeit at 50% smaller than they are now.

Mercedes-Benz Tripled Plug-In Electric Car Sales In 2020

Mercedes-Benz announced that its global plug-in electric car sales more than tripled in 2020 and that the PHEV and BEV expansion will continue in 2021.

insideevs.com

Mercedes-Benz Plug-In Car Sales In 2021: Up 69% To 227,458

Despite a challenging year, Mercedes-Benz managed to significantly increase plug-in electric vehicle sales. All-electric vehicle sales almost doubled to 99,301.

insideevs.com

Mercedes-Benz More Than Tripled All-Electric Car Sales In Q1 2022

In Q1 2022, Mercedes-Benz sold globally 67,800 plug-in electric passenger cars, which is 37% more than in Q1 2021.

insideevs.com

 

[blueone]

True.

Can you name one city or town that banned natural gas connections for health reasons?