Zero-emission vehicles, their batteries & subsidies/rebates for them.- No politics regarding the subsidies!

[Ron Texas]

@Suffolkhifinut I am truly sorry about your hospital stay and wish you a speedy recovery.

 

[001]

Here's a video by sabine hossenfelder speaking about whether nuclear power can be considered green. Apart from the Thorium underestimate, i think it's worthwhile listening to.

 

[samsa]

Doesn’t tell a true story every Wind Farm has a guaranteed price known as the Strike Price. The average subsidy has increased year on year and is averaging around £110 per MW hour and in one case has reached £390 per MW hour. The last available information on the average power output of Wind Farms in the UK is between 11% to 14% of their maximum rated output.

The subsidy figures I quoted were from the ref.org.uk website, not the back of a cigarette packet.

I wish you a speedy recovery. But I do need to clear up the incorrect (or, at least, highly misleading) statements in your posts above.

The CfD Renewable Energy Auctions were introduced by the Energy Act of 2013, replacing the previous (arguably bad) ROC (Renewables Obligation Certificate) scheme.

The UK Government has run 4 rounds of CfD Renewable Energy Auctions. The results are reported on the Government's website.

The subsidy for these contracts is £(strike price)-£(market price).

By convention, all prices are stated in 2012 pounds. The strike prices are adjusted for inflation (RPI) over the course of the 15 year contract.

• Round 1 (2015) purchased 2127 MWhr/yr at an average strike price of £101.98/MWhr.
• Round 2 (2017) purchased 3346 MWhr/yr at an average strike price of £62.62/MWhr.
• Round 3 (2019) purchased 5775 MWhr/yr at an average strike price of £40.64/MWhr.
• Round 4 (2022) purchased 10792 MWhr/yr at an average strike price of £40.75/MWhr.

As you can see, the strike price of Round 4 is less than half that of Round 1. As to the spot price for electricity, you can look that up yourself. It's currently considerably higher than the Round 4 strike price (after adjusting the latter for inflation).

 

[Suffolkhifinut]

I wish you a speedy recovery. But I do need to clear up the incorrect (or, at least, highly misleading) statements in your posts above.

The CfD Renewable Energy Auctions were introduced by the Energy Act of 2013, replacing the previous (arguably bad) ROC (Renewables Obligation Certificate) scheme.

The UK Government has run 4 rounds of CfD Renewable Energy Auctions. The results are reported on the Government's website.

The subsidy for these contracts is £(strike price)-£(market price).

By convention, all prices are stated in 2012 pounds. The strike prices are adjusted for inflation (RPI) over the course of the 15 year contract.

• Round 1 (2015) purchased 905 MWhr/yr at an average strike price of £99.57/MWhr.
• Round 2 (2017) purchased 3346 MWhr/yr at an average strike price of £62.62/MWhr.
• Round 3 (2019) purchased 5775 MWhr/yr at an average strike price of £40.64/MWhr.
• Round 4 (2022) purchased 10792 MWhr/yr at an average strike price of £40.75/MWhr.

As you can see, the strike price of Round 4 is less than half that of Round 1. As to the spot price for electricity, you can look that up yourself. It's currently considerably higher than the Round 4 strike price (after adjusting the latter for inflation).

Really good debate on renewables, too many different takes on the true cost of wind farms. The only conclusion I can come too is we need a high level of backup power generation. Dual power sources will lead to exorbitant costs.

 

[Laserjock]

Seems like energy is high here in Texas but will go down? (speculating here)

I had a 3 year contract that expired today, it was around 5 cents per kWh for just the electric company charge (there’s a 4.5213 ¢ per kWh and $5.88 per month fee for TDU delivery charge) and was 100% renewable.

I just signed the lowest I could find 100% renewable for 9.42 ¢ per kWh for 3 year contract.

3 years ago, the longer contracts were more expensive assuming power would go up over time.
Now, the shorter term contracts are higher so I assume they are betting that the price of power will go down.

Thoughts?

I’m not against EV’s but I don’t see them working for me just yet. (I average 3500-5000 miles a month in the company car, a Hybrid Toyota Highlander)

 

[Ron Texas]

@001 could you summarize the video? My opinion, which is based on reading a lot of stuff, some of which is not publicly available, is if we don't go big on nuclear decarbonization will fail and we will go broke trying. You may note the IEA said doubling the amount of nuclear power output by 2050 is necessary. Hansen from NASA, the one who really blew the whistle on greenhouse gasses, has said further adoption of nuclear power is necessary.

 

[Ron Texas]

.I just signed the lowest I could find 100% renewable for 9.42 ¢ per kWh for 3 year contract.

A couple of weeks ago contracts n Houston were being offered at 20 cents per kw/hr or higher. I am going to assume that was for one year. I just started a 14-month contract for around 11 cents per kw/hr. At time I signed (a few months ago) the longer-term contracts were more expensive.

 

[Suffolkhifinut]

@001 could you summarize the video? My opinion, which is based on reading a lot of stuff, some of which is not publicly available, is if we don't go big on nuclear decarbonization will fail and we will go broke trying. You may note the IEA said doubling the amount of nuclear power output by 2050 is necessary. Hansen from NASA, the one who really blew the whistle on greenhouse gasses, has said further adoption of nuclear power is necessary.

Worked in the Nuclear industry and on Gas turbine generators, gas isn’t clean energy and pollutes continually. People point out the dangers of Nuclear reactors and if anything goes amiss it’s portrayed as the end of the World. The installations I was involved with had exemplary safety procedures. No such precaution are in place for any other type of generating system.

 

[Ron Texas]

Worked in the Nuclear industry and on Gas turbine generators, gas isn’t clean energy and pollutes continually. People point out the dangers of Nuclear reactors and if anything goes amiss it’s portrayed as the end of the World. The installations I was involved with had exemplary safety procedures. No such precaution are in place for any other type of generating system.

I worked in the gas pipeline, gas independent power, and electric utility industries. Thanks for the summary. I thought the video would be promoting the wind and solar cabal.

 

[Suffolkhifinut]

I worked in the gas pipeline, gas independent power, and electric utility industries. Thanks for the summary. I thought the video would be promoting the wind and solar cabal.

If you could depend on the wind blowing I would be an ardent supporter.. Their operational limitations make them peripheral more’s the pity.

 

[Ron Texas]

If you could depend on the wind blowing I would be an ardent supporter.. Their operational limitations make them peripheral more’s the pity.

Well, the problem is a monoculture of wind, solar and batteries to power the grid along with a belief there will be enough power around to do inefficient things like abandoning heating buildings with gas in favor of electric. Simply electrifying the transportation system will increase electricity demand by 50% in the US. I've read an analysis by a utility industry expert who calculated a wind/solar/battery grid in the US (with a little bit of other stuff, but nukes are gone) would raise electric rates 100 fold. There is no way to get to zero carbon unless we suffer a major decline in our standard of living and that is by design.

 

[Suffolkhifinut]

Well, the problem is a monoculture of wind, solar and batteries to power the grid along with a belief there will be enough power around to do inefficient things like abandoning heating buildings with gas in favor of electric. Simply electrifying the transportation system will increase electricity demand by 50% in the US. I've read an analysis by a utility industry expert who calculated a wind/solar/battery grid in the US (with a little bit of other stuff, but nukes are gone) would raise electric rates 100 fold. There is no way to get to zero carbon unless we suffer a major decline in our standard of living and that is by design.

Totally agree just get a Politician to stand up and tell the electorate, they have to accept a lower standard of living. Last night listened to a Scientist saying in 50 years we may think of 40C+. as a mild Summers day. They then showed an old newsreel clip from 40 years ago. It was his Father a Government Minister saying exactly what you posted.
Just to get political the people with power and money will not suffer the necessary drop in living standards, the average Joe & Jane will. It can only work in a Totalitarian state. Look at Sri Lanka a year ago they started pursuing a green agenda. Now their exchequer is empty they can’t afootd to import fuel and people are staring. Parliament’s response was to vote in the regime’s Prime Minister as President, the outgoing President’s brother if m memory isn’t playing up? Transfer that to the US where there are 330 million registered firearms and you’ve got the recipe for insurrection and revolution. Wait until there is widespread hunger and children are dying of starvation, the Americans I worked with if they are typical won’t take it lying down.

 

[Willem]

The problem with most renewables is that the output is so variable. Nuclear will indeed provide a nice floor for the system. Beyond that, we should use the law of the large numbers, i.e. increase long distance grid connectivity. If today the wind does not blow as strong here in northern Europe, it may well do so at the other end of Europe. and add variable pricing for end users - nothing concentrates the mind better than a price tag.
Current consumer price for electricity in the Netherlands is something like 60 eurocents a kwh, i.e. about three times higher than a year ago. This is after taxes were lowered. However, many now have PV panels and produce much or all of their own electricy consumption. Gasoline/petrol is about 2.32 euro a litre (and again, after taxes were lowered).

 

[Ron Texas]

I am aware of the story in Sri Lanka. Their government has nearly collapsed. Agricultural reforms proposed in the Netherlands have a similar stink. The Dutch have the most efficient agricultural sector in the world and their farmers have made many cost-effective moves to reduce CO2, but the climate nuts want changes which will reduce agricultural output by 50% to reduce carbon. The sector will likely collapse, and the farming will move somewhere else which is not regulated if these rules are implemented.

Cancelling Keystone prevented 880,000 barrels of Canadian oil per day from the market. Putting the brakes on US oil and gas production has a significant effect on output because the shale wells have a very short life. I got that last tidbit from a UT educated Geologist who is now an energy industry analyst.

 

[Ron Texas]

@Willem long distance transmission involves significant losses.

 

[Willem]

The Dutch have the most efficient agricultural sector in the world and their farmers have made many cost-effective moves to reduce CO2, but the climate nuts want changes which will reduce agricultural output by 50% to reduce carbon. The sector will likely collapse, and the farming will move somewhere else which is not regulated if these rules are implemented.

This is not quite true. Yes the Netherlands have a very efficient agriculture, but the current problem has nothing to do with CO2 emissions, but with nitrogen emissions that have gone up massively. Farmers who used to have 50 cows a generation ago now have hundreds. Cycling in the coutryside in some regions of the country the smell is awful, and the impact of all these fertilizing emissions on the environment is pretty dramatic. The sad news for the farmers is that they have expanded their businesses and borrowed money for that, to now discover that they have gone too far. Successive mostly conservative governments have belittled the problem, but now the courts have intervened and forced government to act. The 50% only relates to a few regions - mostly the proposed reductions are far and far less.

 

[Willem]

@Willem long distance transmission involves significant losses.

I know - I am the son of an electrical engineer. However, you do not have to transport all electricity, but only some, and only some of the time, and not invariably very far. So it is one piece in the puzzle. Right now, there is already a thriving pan European spot market because national grids are already connected.

 

[Ron Texas]

@Willem OK, I remember now it's Nitrogen. Still, this is similar to the attack on CO2 and the sector will likely collapse if these moves are implemented. Sorry about the smell.

 

[Blumlein 88]

Worked in the Nuclear industry and on Gas turbine generators, gas isn’t clean energy and pollutes continually. People point out the dangers of Nuclear reactors and if anything goes amiss it’s portrayed as the end of the World. The installations I was involved with had exemplary safety procedures. No such precaution are in place for any other type of generating system.

Gas is clean relative to coal. I don't think anyone is claiming gas as zero emissions.

 

[samsa]

Latest (April 2022) data on US power generation (EIA latest monthly report):

• Natural Gas: 107 TWhr (35%)
• Renewables: 91 TWhr (29%)
• Coal & Oil: 56 TWhr (18%)
• Nuclear: 55 TWhr (18%)

No reason we can't double both nuclear and renewables.