Zero-emission vehicles, their batteries & subsidies/rebates for them.- No politics regarding the subsidies!

[Doodski]

Is that cost effective currently?

I assume so because whoever is investing is into it for billions of infrastructure and that does not include the extraction of natural gas and pipelining it to the facility where the hydrogen will be made. They are all separate industries. A polypropylene manufacturing facility has recently opened too and that was more billions. Lotsa natural gas around where I live. Business is booming apparently and it seems energy security is on the agenda too.

 

[Ron Texas]

Deep breath. Read what I wrote.

There is no lithium shortage. Which is good, because at the moment, there's no good alternative to lithium.

There is a shortage of nickel (and to a lesser extent cobalt). That is reflected clearly in what's happening to the prices of those minerals. On the other hand, there are alternatives to nickel and cobalt ...

No shortage, take a look at this chart:https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=kg&d=240

In under a year the price of lithium went from $14 to $70 per kg. Since when is that not a shortage?

 

[Ron Texas]

I assume so because whoever is investing is into it for billions of infrastructure and that does not include the extraction of natural gas and pipelining it to the facility where the hydrogen will be made. They are all separate industries. A polypropylene manufacturing facility has recently opened too and that was more billions. Lotsa natural gas around where I live. Business is booming apparently and it seems energy security is on the agenda too.

Apparently, Canada did not try to destroy its oil and gas industry the way the US did.

 

[Blumlein 88]

Apparently, Canada did not try to destroy its oil and gas industry the way the US did.

Well the US did try and destroy part of Canada's with the Keystone XL pipeline cancellation. Wasn't that coming from Canada?

Let me see, global warming is a hoax so they should have done it. Global warming is real and Canada is actively promoting it because being warmer is good for them. Or well any one of a few dozen crazy ideas. All I want is for gas to be cheap until EVs are cheap too. (I'll settle for fuel cell cars that have electric drivetrains running off hydrogen or methane).

 

[Doodski]

Apparently, Canada did not try to destroy its oil and gas industry the way the US did.

O' there is a pesky element trying it's best to screw it all up. But the energy security issue is becoming glaringly apparent and so things are picking up. There's a multi billion dollar natural gas port on the west coast maybe ~ 1/2 completed too. A petrO pipeline twining is ~2/3 underway to Vancouver from Edmonton Alberta and that will triple capacity for near daily shipping out of Vancouver. There was a major pipeline partially constructed from Hardisty Alberta to the South USA at a major terminal in I think Texas but that was nixed. That would have been a major biggie. Energy security is what that one would have been for USA and Canada. The clincher one though is the pipeline that supplies the Toronto and Quebec regions. It crosses into the USA for a very short distance and goes under some river and the state officials want that removed and the upgrade plans unfilled. It's a source of humor for us Albertans because that region is adamant that Alberta oil must be stopped. So if their pipeline is removed they have only Saudi Oil which they import to the tune of about 85% right now. Hypocrites.

 

[Doodski]

No shortage, take a look at this chart:https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=kg&d=240

In under a year the price of lithium went from $14 to $70 per kg. Since when is that not a shortage?

Lithium is a very hot item at this time for sure. Anybody thinking otherwise is not up to speed.

 

[Ron Texas]

Well the US did try and destroy part of Canada's with the Keystone XL pipeline cancellation. Wasn't that coming from Canada?

Let me see, global warming is a hoax so they should have done it. Global warming is real and Canada is actively promoting it because being warmer is good for them. Or well any one of a few dozen crazy ideas. All I want is for gas to be cheap until EVs are cheap too. (I'll settle for fuel cell cars that have electric drivetrains running off hydrogen or methane).

What I ment to say the US was destroying its own O&G industry and has thrown energy security out the window. Yes, it's also true that cancelling Keystone hurt Canada. That pipeline would have been finished by now putting an additional 880,000 barrels per day on the market. Right now, predicting the future price of gasoline is difficult. My only advice is don't buy a real thirsty vehicle. At current prices EV's don't offer much relief unless you are willing to settle for something miserable like the Bolt.

The latest from the administration is they intend to draw down 50% of the strategic petroleum reserve.

 

[samsa]

No shortage, take a look at this chart:https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=kg&d=240

In under a year the price of lithium went from $14 to $70 per kg. Since when is that not a shortage?

Fair enough. Here's the price of lithium carbonate over the past year

Here's the price of crude oil over the same period

Not quite as dramatic an increase, but still substantial. From which, presumably, you would not conclude that there is a world shortage of oil and we should phase out ICE vehicles in response to that shortage.

The question is where lithium prices are going from here.

The forecasts I have seen have them leveling off (for at least the next year or two), as there's lots of new supply coming online. If you think those forecasts are wrong, there is a lithium futures market you can invest in.

 

[dc655321]

But the energy security issue is becoming glaringly apparent and so things are picking up.

Do you think the pick up may have more to do with global oil/gas prices than any other factor?
Canadian resources have little impact on the global price of crude.

t's a source of humor for us Albertans because that region is adamant that Alberta oil must be stopped. So if their pipeline is removed they have only Saudi Oil which they import to the tune of about 85% right now. Hypocrites.

I see that argument made frequently. Got a reasonable reference for that?

 

[Blumlein 88]

Do you think the pick up may have more to do with global oil/gas prices than any other factor?
Canadian resources have little impact on the global price of crude.

Do you mean this kind of pick up?

 

[Doodski]

Do you think the pick up may have more to do with global oil/gas prices than any other factor?
Canadian resources have little impact on the global price of crude.

Canadian prices are lower than West Texas Intermediate Crude (As I remember it is called.) and are mostly comprised from a USA customer relationship and that is why the new West Coast terminal/pipeline stuff is so exciting. New global customers = higher price for the same product. Yes, Canadian prices have little effect and are mostly determined by Texas and Saudi crude prices. The prices for crude are so high right now it's a win win for everybody selling crude.

see that argument made frequently. Got a reasonable reference for that?

Hmmz... A very interesting question. I never found a number for the percentage of oil imports for Quebec in that capacity we desire.
"In total, between 1988 and 2020, Canada spent $488 billion importing crude oil from such countries as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Azerbaijan, Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan, as well as the United Kingdom, Norway and, more recently, the United States."

Foreign oil imports to Canada: $488 billion between 1988 and 2020 - Canadian Energy Centre

Despite being a world leader in crude oil reserves and production Canada's reliance on foreign oil is significant

www.canadianenergycentre.ca

"Between 2007 and 2017, Statistics Canada figures show that Canada imported a total of $20.9 billion of Saudi Arabian petroleum oils. For context, this is almost precisely what Canada spends on its military per year. It’s also way more than the expected $15.7 billion cost of the Energy East pipeline. On average, in recent years, Saudi Arabia supplies about 10 per cent of Canada’s oil imports. Canada, in turn, is responsible for buying roughly 1.5 per cent of total Saudi oil exports. What’s more, Saudi Arabia is climbing the leader board of countries that Canada’s relies upon for its foreign oil. As recently as 2010, Saudi Arabia ranked as Canada’s fifth largest supplier of foreign oil (behind Algeria, Norway, the U.K. and Kazakhstan). Now, Saudi Arabia is second only to the United States."

Why has Canada spent billions of dollars buying Saudi Arabian oil?

Despite sitting on an ocean of oil, Canada still buys $300 million per month of Saudi crude

nationalpost.com

 

[dc655321]

Canadian prices are lower than West Texas Intermediate Crude (As I remember it is called.) and are mostly comprised from a USA customer relationship and that is why the new West Coast terminal/pipeline stuff is so exciting. New global customers = higher price for the same product. Yes, Canadian prices have little effect and are mostly determined by Texas and Saudi crude prices. The prices for crude are so high right now it's a win win for everybody selling crude.

Hmmz... A very interesting question. I never found a number for the percentage of oil imports for Quebec in that capacity we desire.
"In total, between 1988 and 2020, Canada spent $488 billion importing crude oil from such countries as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Azerbaijan, Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan, as well as the United Kingdom, Norway and, more recently, the United States."

Foreign oil imports to Canada: $488 billion between 1988 and 2020 - Canadian Energy Centre

Despite being a world leader in crude oil reserves and production Canada's reliance on foreign oil is significant

www.canadianenergycentre.ca

View attachment 217183
View attachment 217184
"Between 2007 and 2017, Statistics Canada figures show that Canada imported a total of $20.9 billion of Saudi Arabian petroleum oils. For context, this is almost precisely what Canada spends on its military per year. It’s also way more than the expected $15.7 billion cost of the Energy East pipeline. On average, in recent years, Saudi Arabia supplies about 10 per cent of Canada’s oil imports. Canada, in turn, is responsible for buying roughly 1.5 per cent of total Saudi oil exports. What’s more, Saudi Arabia is climbing the leader board of countries that Canada’s relies upon for its foreign oil. As recently as 2010, Saudi Arabia ranked as Canada’s fifth largest supplier of foreign oil (behind Algeria, Norway, the U.K. and Kazakhstan). Now, Saudi Arabia is second only to the United States."

Why has Canada spent billions of dollars buying Saudi Arabian oil?

Despite sitting on an ocean of oil, Canada still buys $300 million per month of Saudi crude

nationalpost.com

Thanks.
So, not "only Saudi Oil which they import to the tune of about 85% right now".
Careful what you take away from the Canadian Energy Centre - their interests are neither neutral nor national.

 

[dc655321]

Do you mean this kind of pick up?

Mebe this one is more appropriate for the thread?

Your pic is definitely more approps for Alberta tho

 

[Doodski]

Thanks.
So, not "only Saudi Oil which they import to the tune of about 85% right now".
Careful what you take away from the Canadian Energy Centre - their interests are neither neutral nor national.

Neutrality seems to be a difficult thing to source these days in matters pertaining to petrO product.

 

[Doodski]

Mebe this one is more appropriate for the thread?

View attachment 217185

Your pic is definitely more approps for Alberta tho

Haha. Yes pickup truck are the beemer here but we have lotsa beemers too.

 

[Ron Texas]

Fair enough. Here's the price of lithium carbonate over the past year



Here's the price of crude oil over the same period



Not quite as dramatic an increase, but still substantial. From which, presumably, you would not conclude that there is a world shortage of oil and we should phase out ICE vehicles in response to that shortage.

The question is where lithium prices are going from here.

The forecasts I have seen have them leveling off (for at least the next year or two), as there's lots of new supply coming online. If you think those forecasts are wrong, there is a lithium futures market you can invest in.

You are struggling to justify your errors above. Everyone knows crude doubled, but not by 5X like lithium. Get real and stop bugging me.

 

[samsa]

You are struggling to justify your errors above. Everyone knows crude doubled, but not by 5X like lithium. Get real and stop bugging me.

Sorry you find my posts annoying. Feel free to ignore them.

Yes, lithium prices went up by a factor of 5 in 2021. But annual production also went up by 32% in 2021 (from 0.41 million metric tons to 0.54 million metric tons). Not exactly what I'd call a "shortage."

Yes, it takes time to ramp up a new lithium mining operation. But that time is on the order of 18 months—2 years, not decades.

Here's McKinsey's forecast for lithium demand and production through 2030. They expect total demand for lithium to grow by 25-26%/year through 2030 (with batteries going from 30% of total usage in 2015 to 95% in 2030). "Conventional" sources should be able to increase production by 20%/year through 2030. "Unconventional" sources (like the brine project @Doodski mentioned) will be needed to make up the difference.

Not exactly the dire situation you foresee, but who cares what McKinsey thinks?

 

[Randy Bessinger]

How much lithium is in the oceans? I have heard a lot, but cost getting out in the future…I don’t know.

 

[Doodski]

How much lithium is in the oceans? I have heard a lot, but cost getting out in the future…I don’t know.

Existing petroleum wells often have large lithium deposits in the form of a brine that comes to the surface. the brine has been pumped back underground because there was no viable market for it but that is changing. Projects are already underway for large scale brine extraction from old unused wells and existing wells. It's easily accessible relatively speaking and economically viable. As a bonus the present manpower used for petro wells can be used for the lithium wells. The same geo experts, engineers specializing in drilling and such plus the labor for doing the drilling and servicing wellheads will be the same. It's a superb transition industry for existing manpower that need a place to hang their hats.

 

[Ron Texas]

https://www.westernjournal.com/coup...100-miles-2700-mile-trip/?utm_source=facebook

We have a long way to go with EV's