Zero-emission vehicles, their batteries & subsidies/rebates for them.- No politics regarding the subsidies!

[Blumlein 88]

Once the US and Europe get emissions down, it will be easy to turn to China and India and say, "Well, we're going to charge you for carbon capture then."

Really????? How is that going to work? What will cause China to ask US and Europe to do that? For one if we figure it out they'll steal the tech and do it themselves. Good for the climate, but they aren't going to pay the West for that.

Surely you jest.

 

[ctrl]

The entire thing is crazy because we are risking wrecking the economy today for something that may or may not happen in 75 years. It will cost a lot less to move the population of the Maldives and a few other places to high ground.

This is the same attitude as in the WSJ article, but unfortunately the climate crisis is not that simple. Already, the costs of the climate crisis are staggering.

Natural disasters cost insurers $120 billion in 2021, Munich Re says

Marked by devastating hurricanes and cold snaps in the United States, 2021 proved the second-most costly year on record for the world's insurers, Munich Re said on Monday, warning that extreme weather was more likely with climate change.

www.reuters.com

If we are unlucky, in the next year or two, the world will get a tiny taste of what is to come.
Right now a climatic cooling period is coming to an end (La Niña) and the climate pattern will change into a, hopefully mild, warming phase (El Niño) - which may make the extreme weather situation even worse.

 

[beefkabob]

Really????? How is that going to work? What will cause China to ask US and Europe to do that? For one if we figure it out they'll steal the tech and do it themselves. Good for the climate, but they aren't going to pay the West for that.

Surely you jest.

Carbon based tariffs. We really should be doing them already. We can even make them just carbon based sales taxes, and we should, so they can't even make unfair trade claims. That will also encourage US companies to do better. As for stealing, China does that already.

I heard some rumblings from the Third World Countries that they may be getting ready to submit a compensation package demand for not even being on the "shame-on-you" list.

Yeah, but nobody cares about them because they're useless. They only get coal power when China comes in and bribes their leaders.

 

[Blumlein 88]

Carbon based tariffs. We really should be doing them already. We can even make them just carbon based sales taxes, and we should, so they can't even make unfair trade claims. That will also encourage US companies to do better. As for stealing, China does that already.

Yeah, but nobody cares about them because they're useless. They only get coal power when China comes in and bribes their leaders.

To repeat what should be blindingly and deafeningly obvious, we do the carbon tax/tariff deal and totally eliminate our contribution. Congratulations. The world emissions dropped by 12%. The various Asian countries will replace it in maybe 3 years. What next?

Yes China will steal any tech to that, and yes they always do. My complaint was the idea we'd get paid back for developing that. That we could charge for it. Won't happen. Still might be to everyone's benefit. As long as polluting and growing your industrial output and the energy needed to raise world living standards is cheaper they won't even steal it for that. Pretending the Euro and the USA can make the difference by going all out in a religious fervor to cut carbon is stupid, because we aren't any longer the main contributor. When it can be beneficial and in our interests sure. Solar and wind are cheaper than other electricity now or at least darn near on par with it depending on how you slice it. Makes sense to use that where it makes sense, and you don't even have to care about carbon. It is just cheaper, and doesn't pollute as much. Modern natural gas power generation makes good sense and is less carbon emitting. It will be stupid to force abandonment of that because it is not zero. In time economics will or won't displace that.

 

[beefkabob]

To repeat what should be blindingly and deafeningly obvious, we do the carbon tax/tariff deal and totally eliminate our contribution. Congratulations. The world emissions dropped by 12%. The various Asian countries will replace it in maybe 3 years. What next?

Yes China will steal any tech to that, and yes they always do. My complaint was the idea we'd get paid back for developing that. That we could charge for it. Won't happen. Still might be to everyone's benefit. As long as polluting and growing your industrial output and the energy needed to raise world living standards is cheaper they won't even steal it for that. Pretending the Euro and the USA can make the difference by going all out in a religious fervor to cut carbon is stupid, because we aren't any longer the main contributor. When it can be beneficial and in our interests sure. Solar and wind are cheaper than other electricity now or at least darn near on par with it depending on how you slice it. Makes sense to use that where it makes sense, and you don't even have to care about carbon. It is just cheaper, and doesn't pollute as much. Modern natural gas power generation makes good sense and is less carbon emitting. It will be stupid to force abandonment of that because it is not zero. In time economics will or won't displace that.

India and China, thanks to geography and population, are eventually going to get climate smart. If they don't, they'll suffer far more than the US will. China already cannot produce enough food for its population. India is going to get hot, hot, hot. It'll be an interesting century.

 

[Blumlein 88]

India and China, thanks to geography and population, are eventually going to get climate smart. If they don't, they'll suffer far more than the US will. China already cannot produce enough food for its population. India is going to get hot, hot, hot. It'll be an interesting century.

I agree, but people who have had near nothing for generations aren't going to stop probably until it is late (hopefully not too late). The rising standard of living will be an impossible temptation even as people know it will end in difficulties. Pick up the penny in the road and kick the can down the road. It is what people have almost always done.

 

[Sal1950]

OTOH EVs are already better for drag racing.

Not in their ability to draw fans.
And that will always be the top priority of sanctioning bodies.
That top spot belongs to nitro fuel burning dragsters and funny cars.
For the fans, there's no experience in the world like the sound and FEEL of those monsters.
At the national meets, everyone leaves the stands for food and washroom breaks while the other cars race.

To repeat what should be blindingly and deafeningly obvious, we do the carbon tax/tariff deal and totally eliminate our contribution. Congratulations. The world emissions dropped by 12%. The various Asian countries will replace it in maybe 3 years. What next?

Yes China will steal any tech to that, and yes they always do. My complaint was the idea we'd get paid back for developing that. That we could charge for it. Won't happen. Still might be to everyone's benefit. As long as polluting and growing your industrial output and the energy needed to raise world living standards is cheaper they won't even steal it for that. Pretending the Euro and the USA can make the difference by going all out in a religious fervor to cut carbon is stupid, because we aren't any longer the main contributor. When it can be beneficial and in our interests sure. Solar and wind are cheaper than other electricity now or at least darn near on par with it depending on how you slice it. Makes sense to use that where it makes sense, and you don't even have to care about carbon. It is just cheaper, and doesn't pollute as much. Modern natural gas power generation makes good sense and is less carbon emitting. It will be stupid to force abandonment of that because it is not zero. In time economics will or won't displace that.

Finally someone speaks some common sense.

While true it is meaningless. We cannot put the genie back into the bottle. Currently China and India both create the overwhelming majority of emissions. Both are building additional coal powered plants. The USA is not and Germany is not. In any case if you don't get control of the CO2 in China and India (which may ultimately emit more than China) the rest is not enough to matter. Spending money to reduce emissions in a country that isn't a majority player now because they were in the past does little for CO2 in the air now or the future. I'm not saying we should just spew it out for this reason. The idea it will save the world is unrealistic.

Amen brother
While the US economy suffers from BS over-restrictive lawmaker decisions, the east laughs at us and does as they please.
We can be so stupid here.

 

[robwpdx]

I'm involved in the electric utility industry, so I have a broad knowledge of the economics of EVs and deep knowledge of Vehicle to Grid, V2G.

I have also been involved in the fuel cell industry - stationary fuel cells. As a result I have knowledge of the fuel cell industry in Japan, China, and the West. Korea has had an interest in stationary fuel cells, but I haven't followed their interest in vehicles.

So I would be glad to answer questions on those specific topics.

 

[beefkabob]

I agree, but people who have had near nothing for generations aren't going to stop probably until it is late (hopefully not too late). The rising standard of living will be an impossible temptation even as people know it will end in difficulties. Pick up the penny in the road and kick the can down the road. It is what people have almost always done.

It's not like these people you're talking about have a ton of money to go out and get a coal plant built. It took Modi about a decade to get Indians to massively cut back on burning dung indoors and replacing them with cooking gas. That's probably saving tens if not hundreds of thousands of lives a year. So we're not going to see townsfolk in the middle of nowhere putting up power plants and having coal brought in internationally. There will be some piecemeal fossil fuel powering these nations, and maybe China will come in for some territorial and power gains through corrupt governments, but for the most part, the poorest of the poor are going to benefit from solar, wind, and efficient products made elsewhere.

At least that's how I see it. Right now, a lot of countries that were using lng are struggling because they have to get the gas internationally. Coal ain't going to fix that either. No, only local renewables will make them independent.

 

[Blumlein 88]

It's not like these people you're talking about have a ton of money to go out and get a coal plant built. It took Modi about a decade to get Indians to massively cut back on burning dung indoors and replacing them with cooking gas. That's probably saving tens if not hundreds of thousands of lives a year. So we're not going to see townsfolk in the middle of nowhere putting up power plants and having coal brought in internationally. There will be some piecemeal fossil fuel powering these nations, and maybe China will come in for some territorial and power gains through corrupt governments, but for the most part, the poorest of the poor are going to benefit from solar, wind, and efficient products made elsewhere.

At least that's how I see it. Right now, a lot of countries that were using lng are struggling because they have to get the gas internationally. Coal ain't going to fix that either. No, only local renewables will make them independent.

India Power Minister Says Country Will Add More Coal-Fired Plants

The leader of India’s power sector has said the country is preparing to add as much as 56 GW of coal-fired generation capacity by 2030 in order for the

www.powermag.com

While saying they are pushing for more solar and wind than coal for the future India still plans on expanding coal fired power plants by 25%.

China claims they will reach peak coal fire power plants and blast furnaces in 2030 and then will be coal free by 2060. I don't believe the 2060 part. Depending upon whose numbers you go by China gets somewhere between 63% and 80% of electricity from coal. They claim to be adding solar faster than coal in the near future and may well do that. I have my doubts they will build and shut down all this by 2060. If solar is cheap enough then maybe they will.

And you know what, the efforts of the USA and Europe still don't matter because if China manages this the effect far outweighs what everyone else does.

 

[beefkabob]

At this point, everybody's efforts matter.

 

[Marc v E]

I'm involved in the electric utility industry, so I have a broad knowledge of the economics of EVs and deep knowledge of Vehicle to Grid, V2G.

I have also been involved in the fuel cell industry - stationary fuel cells. As a result I have knowledge of the fuel cell industry in Japan, China, and the West. Korea has had an interest in stationary fuel cells, but I haven't followed their interest in vehicles.

So I would be glad to answer questions on those specific topics.

What kind of solutions do you see for the peak power problem of solar and wind?

 

[Suffolkhifinut]

These were the most recent numbers I could find, right at the beginning it says:


It's on the average:
View attachment 273234
Source




Since a considerable part of the emitted CO2 remains in the atmosphere for centuries to millennia, the total emission of CO2 since the beginning of industrialization is crucial.

If we take the emissions of the USA, UK and EU together, the result is roughly a little less than 800 billion tons of cumulative CO2 emission with currently 11% of the world population. China and India emitted less than 300 billion tons of cumulative CO2 emission with currently 35% of the world population.
China and India can still emit a lot of CO2 until they reach the per capita level of the West - probably these countries will not even come close to this level.

The U.S. and Germany have spent decades increasing their wealth at the expense of the poorest countries.
The richest countries have the money for an immediate transition to renewable energy to buy more time for the poorer countries (of course this will not happen).

Source

How did they come up with the data on historic emissions? Historically there was no understanding of the damage caused by emissions. The UK realised the link between industrial and domestic fossil fuel pollution in the 1950s and took action making many urban areas smokeless zones. Once a problem is recognised action must be taken! Why are you giving India and China a free pass?

 

[robwpdx]

What kind of solutions do you see for the peak power problem of solar and wind?

1 Storage, short-Lithium & Calcium chemistry, and more batteries to be invented, 4 hour-ish; medium-flow batteries 4-24 hours-ish; pumped hydro 12 hours to 3 days. Weeks and months is in the research stage with a variety of ideas.

2 Customer load flexibility. In the US we are starting with 2-4 hours, called maybe 20 days a year. That can increase to year around. Your peak hours in 24 are usually about 4 hours.

3 More long distance large power lines as discussed in https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/seams.html. Europe has the start of this and has transmitted hydro from Sweden and Norway to the South. There are also a good number of undersea cables for moving wind from the coasts. China has it. It is being discussed in East Asia.

4 Today hydrogen is in the hype phase, it will be at least 5 years to see what will be real.

Utilities do probabilistic 15 minute to hour-level simulations of their year in generation and load over their transmission topology for 20 years out. NREL does similar. To do the simulations, you have to specify a loss of load probability. It is not zero. The software is proprietary, the databases underlying it are proprietary, and the software is expensive. But some of those plans are public in the form of the utility Integrated Resource Plan in the US.

In batteries, the thing I would watch is the introduction and cost curve for calcium ion batteries, CATL is a maker. The other one is the Lockheed Martin longer duration flow battery.

 

[Suffolkhifinut]

1 Storage, short-Lithium & Calcium chemistry, and more batteries to be invented, 4 hour-ish; medium-flow batteries 4-24 hours-ish; pumped hydro 12 hours to 3 days. Weeks and months is in the research stage with a variety of ideas.

2 Customer load flexibility. In the US we are starting with 2-4 hours, called maybe 20 days a year. That can increase to year around. Your peak hours in 24 are usually about 4 hours.

3 More long distance large power lines as discussed in https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/seams.html. Europe has the start of this and has transmitted hydro from Sweden and Norway to the South. There are also a good number of undersea cables for moving wind from the coasts. China has it. It is being discussed in East Asia.

4 Today hydrogen is in the hype phase, it will be at least 5 years to see what will be real.

Utilities do probabilistic 15 minute to hour-level simulations of their year in generation and load over their transmission topology for 20 years out. NREL does similar. To do the simulations, you have to specify a loss of load probability. It is not zero. The software is proprietary, the databases underlying it are proprietary, and the software is expensive. But some of those plans are public in the form of the utility Integrated Resource Plan in the US.

In batteries, the thing I would watch is the introduction and cost curve for calcium ion batteries, CATL is a maker. The other one is the Lockheed Martin longer duration flow battery.

Tried reading through this several times and it’s a technical spoonerism. The only one of the points you made is sort of practical, it’s the point on long distance power lines. Even that one won’t be possible in the US, too many cooks in this particular broth.

 

[Ron Texas]

https://www.carscoops.com/2023/03/i...battery-issues-causing-problems-for-everyone/

IMO, another example of how rushing a new technology out causes problems.

 

[pseudoid]

Yeah, but nobody cares about them because they're useless.

Seems like specifics (to you) have a nasty habit of applying globally in your statements?
Some of us DO care for all human beings and you may shockingly discover some day (one can hope) that you are almost as much human as they are.

 

[robwpdx]

https://www.carscoops.com/2023/03/i...battery-issues-causing-problems-for-everyone/

IMO, another example of how rushing a new technology out causes problems.

I don't think it is rushed. We have Redwood Resources for recycling. I see these issues:

1 Major manufacturers in US, Japan, Germany, Korea embraced 6 sigma quality - the tiniest percentage of the product fails spec. China has a philosophy of cha bu duo - think 1 sigma, or less than 1 sigma. So in battery manufacturing, they have significant grade B, grade C, and failed battery product, fraudulent labeling, and customers who want to buy poor quality/early failure product at a discount. China has been subsidizing small EV and other battery product makers who consume the low quality rejects.

2 Major EV makers in the West are greedy. While EV's are expensive, they are deliberately planned with custom, non-repairable, and guaranteed to not be in production in 20 years, battery packs. We have million mile heavy trucks. We could have million mile EVs. There is a wild hobby market to disassemble battery packs and rebuild them into new uses - see batteryhookup.com.

 

[beefkabob]

Seems like specifics (to you) have a nasty habit of applying globally in your statements?
Some of us DO care for all human beings and you may shockingly discover some day (one can hope) that you are almost as much human as they are.

You may not like the delivery, but there's a message there. The global south, as they're called, is a catchall for the essentially powerless, uneducated, low-resourced, highly corrupt, poorly run nations of the world. I can couch my phrases in niceness, but the fact stands: the powerful countries largely don't give a fig about these nations, except for resource exploitation, strategic ports, and votes in the GA.

 

[Suffolkhifinut]

Read a report this afternoon on EV write offs with only minor damage. Seemingly the insurance companies are insisting the garages doing the repairs indemnify them against future claims on battery damage. The garages in return are pointing out they don’t have the expertise or test equipment to guarantee there isn’t any battery damage.