will CDs eventually become obsolete due to no CD transports surviving?

[tmtomh]

It’s not a myth. In the early days, there was a manufacturing defect that lead to delamination of the surface. I’ve seen it first hand.. must have been 8 or so Never once after that with pressed CDs.

I've seen that too, and more: delamination on some Polygram CDs and the infamous "sticky" Nimbus CDs; pinholes in the metal-foil layer right from the start because of manufacturing errors; tiny air gaps on the edges of CDs that result in the metal foil layer gradually oxidizing and making the disc hard or impossible to read ("bronzing"); and general bit rot with no known cause.

But as @Robin L notes, all of these problems fall into one of two categories: (1) problems in the first years that were remedied soon thereafter; and (2) the normal, very small percentage rate of failure that occurs with any mass-produced item. Those problems are not endemic to the medium and not typical.

Billions of hardware devices will inevitably fail because the capacitors inside them will drift too far out of spec or explode. But for the most part that process takes decades. That's not the same thing as the "capacitor plague" of the late 1990s and early 2000s (or whenever it was exactly), in which capacitors failed very prematurely because they were incorrectly manufactured (they were made from a formula stolen through corporate espionage, and the formula happened to be incomplete). I think it matters whether a format, medium, or product type is inherently unreliable versus whether it is highly reliable but has occasional failures.

EDIT: here's a link about it.

Capacitor plague - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Robin L]

EBAY lists 58 Blu-Ray players that are identical to mine. They were manufactured about ten years ago. Sony BDP BX-57. They were low-cost players that had just about everything - Blu-Ray and DVD capable, SACD capable, two channels of analog out, HDMI, Optical, Coax digital and streaming. Some of these used players lack a remote control, but there's a clone for sale for about $10. And that's just one model. Price ranges from about $15 to $90. I suspect that there's plenty of disc players on the market because streaming had taken over in a big way. As it is I've managed to get my hands on about 200 CDs over the last year. I'm getting close to 1600 discs right now. I have a source where I can get CDs for a maximum of $1 per. The last time I picked up 75 CDs for about $30. So many people dumping their collections for various reasons. So, I'm intending to be playing my little silver discs for a long time.

 

[tmtomh]

EBAY lists 58 Blu-Ray players that are identical to mine. They were manufactured about ten years ago. Sony BDP BX-57. They were low-cost players that had just about everything - Blu-Ray and DVD capable, SACD capable, two channels of analog out, HDMI, Optical, Coax digital and streaming. Some of these used players lack a remote control, but there's a clone for sale for about $10. And that's just one model. Price ranges from about $15 to $90. I suspect that there's plenty of disc players on the market because streaming had taken over in a big way. As it is I've managed to get my hands on about 200 CDs over the last year. I'm getting close to 1600 discs right now. I have a source where I can get CDs for a maximum of $1 per. The last time I picked up 75 CDs for about $30. So many people dumping their collections for various reasons. So, I'm intending to be playing my little silver discs for a long time.

Nice! My collection is much smaller, but I to increased it significantly in the late 2010s, from about 300 to about 500, because it was dead-easy to find titles I'd always wanted (or in some cases that I'd sold many years prior but wanted back) for 50 cents to a dollar in thrift stores. There were also online sites like GoHastings that sold 10s of thousands of used CD titles for $1.29 with free shipping(!).

The used CD market has become super-bifurcated over the last 10-15 years: the majority of titles are available dirt-cheap; and a small percentage - I would guess maybe 10-15%? - are considered collectible for a variety of reasons and seem to command ever-increasing prices.

 

[Robin L]

Nice! My collection is much smaller, but I to increased it significantly in the late 2010s, from about 300 to about 500, because it was dead-easy to find titles I'd always wanted (or in some cases that I'd sold many years prior but wanted back) for 50 cents to a dollar in thrift stores. There were also online sites like GoHastings that sold 10s of thousands of used CD titles for $1.29 with free shipping(!).

The used CD market has become super-bifurcated over the last 10-15 years: the majority of titles are available dirt-cheap; and a small percentage - I would guess maybe 10-15%? - are considered collectible for a variety of reasons and seem to command ever-increasing prices.

I'm primarily interested in Classical titles. Right now, I'm streaming Igor Levit playing the Goldberg Variations via Spotify (free version, I'll see how that works out). But the most recent haul included ten discs of Glenn Gould playing Bach in two budget boxes. One included the famous 1955 recording of the Goldbergs. I used to love that version, but it's way too fast for me now, hectic. In any case it's the Classical titles that are the least in demand as CDs right now and Spotify is one of the reasons why.

 

[restorer-john]

I don't think any CD can last 40 years let alone 100 years.

Plenty in my collection are over 40 years old already...

 

[Leporello]

I'd love to have FLAC backups of my CDs. But the thought of dealing with ripping them all (nearly 1000) and fiddling with getting the metadata right is just too daunting.

Maybe I could hire a high school intern to do it all.

I FLACced my 1000+ collection a couple of years ago. Admittedly a tedious process. Did not worry too much about getting the metadata exactly right or even consistent. I organised my collection by creating the folders manually before ripping.

 

[Leporello]

I don't think any CD can last 40 years let alone 100 years. I think blu-rays can actually last 50+ years due to the way there made.

Bought my cd player in 1985. I have several cds purchased the very same year. They still play as new. Excited to see them crash and burn in only a few months.

 

[JeffS7444]

I picked up a Cambridge Soundworks CD740 AM/FM/CD for a pittance, because the CD drive isn't spinning. I'm hoping a new spindle motor will fix it. While I'm at it, I'll perform a general cleaning and lubrication of the drive mechanism (Philips CDM-M6). Although designed as "lifetime lubricated", no one anticipated that the unit would still be in service 20+ years later, so some additional maintenance is needed.

 

[Petrushka]

Yes, Polaroid film packs are still widely available. An 8-shot pack of Polaroid 600 runs $16 on Amazon, with free next-day delivery for Prime members.

My typo. I intended to say you can.

I blame everything on autocomplete.

 

[terryforsythe]

They all have a life expectancy and eventually most of them will have given up the ghost, at which point you better hope you have all your CD stuff backed up on hard drives.

I don't foresee CD players completely disappearing for a long time, probably well after all of us are gone. As an analogy, turn tables and cassette players are still being made.

Nonetheless, I used a portable CD drive to back up my CD collection to my NAS. There are a few not available on Tidal to which I listen, but for the most part I just stream everything else from Tidal.

 

[sq225917]

Got my first oxidised cd in 89, hadn't seen one before then. It was limited to one production plant.

 

[restorer-john]

Got my first oxidised cd in 89, hadn't seen one before then. It was limited to one production plant.

Let me guess, it was Oxygene-ised.

 

[AnalogSteph]

Got my first oxidised cd in 89, hadn't seen one before then. It was limited to one production plant.

Compact disc bronzing - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

CD bronzing seems to occur mostly with audio CDs manufactured by Philips and Dupont Optical (PDO) at its plant in Blackburn, Lancashire, UK, between the years 1988 and 1993.

 

[Mean & Green]

I don't think any CD can last 40 years let alone 100 years.

What you think is wrong.

 

[Robin L]

I FLACced my 1000+ collection a couple of years ago. Admittedly a tedious process. Did not worry too much about getting the metadata exactly right or even consistent. I organised my collection by creating the folders manually before ripping.

I used Apple Lossless. There are two SSD storage devices, nearly the same. One started losing some files. The other is in a DAP, that one hasn't lost anything yet. The one in the computer is organized alphabetically, either by artist or composer. The DAP is organized by genre in separate folders, a little easier to navigate. None of my CDs have failed on me so far, though there were a few (very few) that were defective when I bought them.

 

[Joe Smith]

Ha, you're funny. I think CD drives will be around for quite a while. No desire here to back up over 3,000 CDs in my library...I will take my chances.

I spent a good deal of time in the oughts putting CDs into my iTunes library, and I never use those files,,,it took a lot of time...which end the end was just a blip in my musical life.

Still spinning LPs...playing cassettes...these older formats will survive, because we have a lot of technology merchants, and we are a nostalgic species and like our gear.

Oh, yeah, and as to disk rot - I've maybe had one or two CDs that had some degradation. One of those I think was a manufacturing flaw and it came that way. So yeah, nothing is forever, but I'm sure my collection will long outlast me!

 

[Chrispy]

The sooner you rip your CDs the better in any case. It did take a knee injury recovery period for me to get the bulk done, tho, but its easy maintenance after that. I still have several capable players and do wonder what might be available if/when the last of mine stops working.

 

[pseudoid]

I FLACced my 1000+ collection a couple of years ago. Admittedly a tedious process. Did not worry too much about getting the metadata exactly right or even consistent. I organised my collection by creating the folders manually before ripping.

Yeah, but it is a worthwhile task!
I went even further and sold my LP and CD libraries.
And, finally, I got rid of all my old audio hardware: Turntable, CassetteRecorder, CD/VHS/DVD/DAT hardware and even my multi-channel A/V pre/Proc and power amp.
Just this week, we finally donated our remnant DVD library... to the local public library.
I still don't know if the few-hundred 90minute TDK recorded music cassettes (from the 70s and the early 80s) are environmentally safe to be just thrown into our trash bin.
That is my intent before the end of 2024 and good riddance!

I have a 2-drive NAS that is now my music library, with over (at least) 40,000 cuts; all in digital format.
No remorse.

 

[Waxx]

I got cases full of cd's in my attic, but i never use them after i ripped them to flac my NAS server. That is the only time they see a lazer i think... My NAS is on my LAN, and can be used as music source by all my computers in the different rooms of my house. I have about 5 systems connected in my house. There are also backups made for that NAS.

I keep my cd's up in the attic as my living room is already overloaded with my vinyl collection (that is also still present and updated regulary) and a cd player is not something i need for myself. I see it as an outdated medium for digital files (but a lot of music is only availeble on cd).

 

[Mart68]

I've bought a couple of new releases in the past year, brand new albums, all available on brand new CDs.

Maybe it will become like vinyl did in the 1990s when it got to the stage where some new albums were no longer released on that format. (Which is what compelled me to finally buy a CD player back in 1995). But we're not there yet.

Seems to me as long as there are new CDs being produced there will be new players being made.

Streaming has various disadvantages:

1) Monthly subscription payments regardless of how much or little you use it
2) Not all music, or all of the different masters of that music, are available
3) No end user control over the quality of the feed
4) Needs an internet connection (internet connections go down occasionally or often depending on location)
5) Needs a computer and software, both of which can be problematic
6) Browsing choice from a screen is not the same as browsing a physical library. Some may prefer screen access, many don't.
7) Cost of access may increase, if you don't have an alternative it's either suck it up or no more music
8) The time and effort required to copy a CD collection to hard drive
9) The need to create and manage multiple back up drives

In contrast the arguments against a physical CD collection are IMV weak:

1) Degradation - absolutely no evidence that this is an issue, except for production from one plant, decades ago, of which all affected CDs have long since failed and been binned.

2) Storage space - I estimate I can store 5000 CDs in one alcove of my living room. How many do you need? Where is the time to listen to them all? Who does not have one alcove of space to devote (even assuming they have that many discs)?

3) Sound quality - CD does not offer inferior sound because it is read from a disc. Learn how CD works.

4) Availability of hardware - seems like a month does not pass without a new transport coming on the market. Millions of functioning devices already out there. Even if I was in my 20s I would not be concerned about not being able to buy a player in the future. In any case do people think they will live forever?