Who invited Milton to the party?

[Willem]

How much rain fell in the Treasure Coast after Hurricane Milton?​

Rainfall amounts on the Treasure Coast were fairly normal before they started to increase Tuesday because of the approaching storm, which then skewed the total to be above normal for the time period of Oct. 1-10, said Cassie Leahy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

The measurements were taken at different times on Thursday morning, reflecting total rainfall for the previous 48 hours. No official data was available for Stuart, but the NWS had a breakdown of unofficial sites in each county.

Vero Beach rainfall totals​

• Now: 12.92 inches
• Normal: 2.2 inches
• Above average: 10.72 inches

Fort Pierce rainfall totals​

• Now: 7.41 inches
• Normal: 2.03 inches
• Above average: 5.37 inches

Indian River County rainfall totals​

• 1 SW Winter Beach: 10.05 inches at 9:38 a.m.
• Vero Beach: 9.89 inches at 5:45 a.m.
• Vero Beach 3.5 SSW: 9.79 inches at 7 a.m
• Vero Beach 3.4 W: 9.49 inches at 6 a.m.
• Vero Beach: 9.41 inches at 9:53 a.m.
• Salt Flat: 7.66 inches at 10:30 a.m.
• Vero Beach 2.5 S: 7.59 inches at 8 a.m.
• Vero Beach: 7.33 inches at 10:30 a.m.
• Sebastian 2.0 SSW: 7.20 inches at 8 a.m.
• Sebastian: 6.95 inches at 10:30 a.m.
• Vero Beach 6.0 S: 6.90 inches at 7 a.m.
• Sebastian: 6.09 inches at 10:36 a.m.
• Wabasso Beach Park: 5.44 inches at 10:40 a.m.
• Vero Beach: 5.20 inches at 9:35 a.m.
• Vero Beach: 5.15 inches at 10:38 a.m.
• Vero Beach 11.9 NW: 4.97 inches at 7 a.m.
• 1 NE Vero Lake Estates: 4.53 inches at 10:38 a.m.
• Fellsmere 4.3 ESE: 4.21 inches at 6 a.m.
• Orchid: 3.60 inches at 10:33 a.m.
• Sebastian: 3.13 inches at 9:33 a.m.
• Sebastian: 2.17 inches at 9:55 a.m.
• Fellsmere 3.8 N: 2.14 inches at 7 a.m.

Extreme peak precipitation is an increasing problem with global warming. We experience the same challenge here in Western Europe. Mitigation measures are implemented, but the problem seems to get worse faster than we can deal with it. Here, a mixture of measures is implemented. First, the designation of large areas for emergency inundation, particularly along rivers. Second, measures to slow down the water in those rivers. Third, improvements to the drainage systems. Fourth, reduction of paved surfaces to increase the absorption capacity of the terrain, combined with green/planted roofs. And of course, we could try to do something about the root cause of the problem.

 

[Bob from Florida]

If I could get back to the weather for second?



How do you deal with something you can't anticipate?

Rhetorical question. The answer is the same as anything else unanticipated. You assess the moment and react.

 

[Willem]

I’m going to make a wild guess that in the last hundred years, more European neighborhoods have been wiped off the map than Florida neighborhoods.

Edit: maybe in the last three years.

Sadly, that is true, but is irrelevant for the argument.

 

[Willem]

How do you deal with something you can't anticipate?

Economists distinguish between risk and uncertainly. The first you can put a probability to, the second not. So, risk can be included in the price of an insurance, but not uncertainty. Insurance companies clearly see wild fires and hurricanes as a risk, with an unfortunately increasing probability and hence higher premiums. They also try to localize the risk, with different premiums for different locations. For them, it is exceedingly important to get good estimates of these risks. Get it wrong, and you lose business because either you are too expensive, or alternatively you lose big money because the risk was higher than you thought.

 

[amper42]

Economists distinguish between risk and uncertainly. The first you can put a probability to, the second not. So, risk can be included in the price of an insurance, but not uncertainty. Insurance companies clearly see wild fires and hurricanes as a risk, with an unfortunately increasing probability and hence higher premiums. They also try to localize the risk, with different premiums for different locations. For them, it is exceedingly important to get good estimates of these risks. Get it wrong, and you lose business because either you are too expensive, or alternatively you lose big money because the risk was higher than you thought.

Current insurance rates have exceeded the risk ratio by quite a bit. It's causing those with resources to evaluate self insuring and other resources. When you haven't made any claims for 20 years and your rates still double each year you know policy premium calculations are not established solely by risk.

 

[Willem]

Sure. There are also administrative costs involved, and a bit of uncertainty - insurance companies are uncertain about the impact of climate change and its future. Personally, I only take out insurance for things I could not afford to cover myself.

 

[EJ3]

Extreme peak precipitation is an increasing problem with global warming. We experience the same challenge here in Western Europe. Mitigation measures are implemented, but the problem seems to get worse faster than we can deal with it. Here, a mixture of measures is implemented. First, the designation of large areas for emergency inundation, particularly along rivers. Second, measures to slow down the water in those rivers. Third, improvements to the drainage systems. Fourth, reduction of paved surfaces to increase the absorption capacity of the terrain, combined with green/planted roofs. And of course, we could try to do something about the root cause of the problem.

Yet many more were killed by storms in Florida prior to 1937, despite the fact that the population was much less dense (no one wanted to live in what is basically a large swamp.
You cannot attribute those storms to a so called world wide climate issue. And with vastly less population, this storms had to be both huge and powerful.
Please tell me what it was that caused them to be like that? As it could not have possibly been related to the so called modern climate change.
In the 1970's in high school, we were being told that we were going into an ice age.
The average water level at my dock (I live on a barrier island in the Atlantic Ocean) has not changed since it was built in 1964. H'mmm?

 

[Bob from Florida]

Just to be clear, I really didn't start this thread to include things like politics, climate change, or dildos attached to steering wheels. Yet, all these things happened. Sometimes I wonder about audio nuts....

 

[Willem]

I am not doing any politcis here, only reporting the scientific consensus that the severity of modern hurricanes and peak precipitation is aggrevated by climate change. Denying that is politics.

 

[Frank Dernie]

In the 1970's in high school, we were being told that we were going into an ice age.

Back then climate models were crude and even if they existed no computers powerful enough to run them existed.

That was still largely true in the 90s but now we have both super computers I couldn't have dreamed of then and climate models which fairly accurately predict historic changes and hence one can be reasonably confident about current climate fluctuation predictions.

 

[Somafunk]

Yet many more were killed by storms in Florida prior to 1937, despite the fact that the population was much less dense (no one wanted to live in what is basically a large swamp.
You cannot attribute those storms to a so called world wide climate issue. And with vastly less population, this storms had to be both huge and powerful.
Please tell me what it was that caused them to be like that? As it could not have possibly been related to the so called modern climate change.
In the 1970's in high school, we were being told that we were going into an ice age.
The average water level at my dock (I live on a barrier island in the Atlantic Ocean) has not changed since it was built in 1964. H'mmm?

Prior to 1937 I imagine the ability to mobilise disaster response and provide suitable healthcare was rather lacking along with substandard housing which most likely led to increased deaths

Ahh, the 1970’s ice age hypothesis , perhaps take a look at the misrepresentation of the scientific consensus at the time and get back to us on that one

And your dock?, info below is taken from National Ocean Service and found with 0.5 seconds of googling, perhaps you should attempt to collate scientific knowledge before posting subjective opinions, this is a science based forum after all.

​

What's the difference between global and local sea level?​

Global sea level trends and relative sea level trends are different measurements. Just as the surface of the Earth is not flat, the surface of the ocean is also not flat—in other words, the sea surface is not changing at the same rate globally. Sea level rise at specific locations may be more or less than the global average due to many local factors: subsidence, upstream flood control, erosion, regional ocean currents, variations in land height, and whether the land is still rebounding from the compressive weight of Ice Age glaciers.
Sea level is primarily measured using tide stations and satellite laser altimeters. Tide stations around the globe tell us what is happening at a local level—the height of the water as measured along the coast relative to a specific point on land. Satellite measurements provide us with the average height of the entire ocean. Taken together, these tools tell us how our ocean sea levels are changing over time.

Global sea level has been rising over the past century, and the rate has increased in recent decades. In 2014, global sea level was 2.6 inches above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present). Sea level continues to rise at a rate of about one-eighth of an inch per year.

 

[ErVikingo]

Current insurance rates have exceeded the risk ratio by quite a bit. It's causing those with resources to evaluate self insuring and other resources. When you haven't made any claims for 20 years and your rates still double each year you know policy premium calculations are not established solely by risk.

You have to factor in the cost of public adjusters and the massive increase in the number and amounts of lawsuits. Remember most suits are settled out of court due to the cost of defense. That is a huge impact in premiums.

The other thing is that there is so much more development in coastal areas when compared to just 20 years ago plus those are much pricier than before thus the amounts at risk have grown substantially.

Plus add to that inflation

 

[Frank Dernie]

The average water level at my dock (I live on a barrier island in the Atlantic Ocean) has not changed since it was built in 1964. H'mmm?

Do you think you could notice an average increase of 2 or 3 inches at your dock given the tides and their cycle of daily difference?

 

[EJ3]

Just to be clear, I really didn't start this thread to include things like politics, climate change, or dildos attached to steering wheels. Yet, all these things happened. Sometimes I wonder about audio nuts....

Just to be clear, I really didn't start this thread to include things like politics, climate change, or dildos attached to steering wheels. Yet, all these things happened. Sometimes I wonder about audio nuts....

Just stating that is politics. And we do not come here for politics. We come here for audio (& to help those that are involved i being wicked by a storm. The storm is not political, and being affected by it isn't political either.
But virtue signaling is political.
There are other forums for that.

 

[Willem]

Just stating that is politics. And we do not come here for politics. We come here for audio (& to help those that are involved i being wicked by a storm. The storm is not political, and being affected by it isn't political either.
But virtue signaling is political.
There are other forums for that.

I object. You are once again trying to silence a scientific argument because it does not suit your political narrative. You are making it political. However, the science stands. Do you have a Nobel prize in physics? If you do, I will listen.

 

[Somafunk]

I object. You are once again trying to silence a scientific argument because it does not suit your political narrative. You are making it political. However, the science stands. Do you have a Nobel prize in physics? If you do, I will listen.

That’s happened to a number of worthwhile discussions on here, someone gets upset at an issue where they get pulled up or corrected then they cry out “politics” and the thread/discussion gets shut down.

 

[Doodski]

That’s happened to a number of worthwhile discussions on here, someone gets upset at an issue where they get pulled up or corrected then they cries out “politics” and the thread/discussion gets shut down.

I refrain from participating when the P word comes into play and related subjects. It's easy to do. Just turn it off in your minds and ignore the P stuff.

 

[GD Fan]

I refrain from participating when the P word comes into play and related subjects. It's easy to do. Just turn it off in your minds and ignore the P stuff.

That's the right strategy. Sadly, some (many?) people want to make things into the P stuff.

 

[Sal1950]

And so do we. In fact, our highway fatality figure is quite a bit lower than for other roads.

That was not the point, I don't know where you live so hard to debate, but I doubt there's any other nation on earth with
as many miles of high speed interstate highways as the US. Since US citizens do more of their yearly miles driving at high speeds it
only stands to reason the fatality % per accident will be higher. Your much more likely to get killed in a 70mph crash than a 30 mph
fender bender.

BTW, this has nothing to do with politics, simply a matter of accident statistics.

"As of June 2023, the Interstate Highway System in the United States is 42,795 miles long. The system includes 10 transcontinental routes and highways ranging from 18 to over 3,000 miles in length.
The Interstate Highway System is a vital part of the country's transportation system, carrying 24–26% of all vehicle traffic in the United States."

 

[Doodski]

That was not the point, I don't know where you live so hard to debate, but I doubt there's any other nation on earth with
as many miles of high speed interstate highways as the US. Since US citizens do more of their yearly miles driving at high speeds it
only stands to reason the fatality % per accident will be higher. Your much more likely to get killed in a 70mph crash than a 30 mph
fender bender.

"As of June 2023, the Interstate Highway System in the United States is 42,795 miles long. The system includes 10 transcontinental routes and highways ranging from 18 to over 3,000 miles in length.
The Interstate Highway System is a vital part of the country's transportation system, carrying 24–26% of all vehicle traffic in the United States."

I used USA road travel maps extensively and I can vouch for the amazing network of roads crisscrossing all over the country. It's mind boggling.