What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

[Deleted member 65]

EEAS SPECIAL REPORT: DISINFORMATION ON THE CORONAVIRUS – SHORT ASSESSMENT OF THE INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/eeas-special...rt-assessment-of-the-information-environment/

 

[Dave Zan]

...measure, reason and build a statistical picture form evidence rather than the hyperbole

Ok, here's the measurements and reason.
COVID19 is between 10 to 100 times more likely to cause death than flu, based on the data.
If it infects a similar number of people there will therefore be probably 800,000 to 8,000,000 deaths rather than 80,000 in the US alone.
There is no natural immunity to COVID19 from past exposure.
So it is quite likely that the number of COVID19 cases could exceed that of the flu - where there is substantial immunity from previous flu episodes.
This makes the situation worse, obviously.
How hard to understand for you is that?

David

 

[Veri]

Last years flu season in the USA alone it is estimated that 80,000 people died from 'the flu.'
Why didn't the world grind to a halt last year?

For one thing a simple flu doesn't make people end up dying like they're drowning in their failing lungs, unable to have any hope for recovery without incubators via artificial breathing.
How is it so hard to see that difference? there aren't enough incubators, let alone hospital beds, combined with the very infectious nature of the disease, that is why the world is grinding to a halt. it is a question of being prepared to combat it, or better yet prevent it as some countries are managing...

 

[maxxevv]

The paper apparently doesn't state it BUT... Since you so seems intent to talk about numbers, what were the infected numbers and what was the source of the numbers cited in that article?
I have seen other articles cite 28 million flu infections and 56,000 deaths.

The key issue with Covid-19 is the mortality rate. Not the number of deaths only.

SARS 'only killed' less than 900 by the time it ended.
Ebola killed less than 10,000 during its last few outbreaks.

You want swap for those over your seasonal flu??

 

[digicidal]

Ok, here's the measurements and reason.
COVID19 appears to be 10 to 100 times more likely to cause death than flu.
If it infects a similar number of people there will therefore be probably 800,000 to 8,000,000 deaths rather than 80,000.
How hard to understand for you is that?
There is no natural immunity to COVID19 from past exposure whereas there is substantial immunity from previous exposure to the flu.
So it is quite likely that the number of COVID19 cases could exceed that of the flu.
This makes the situation worse, obviously.

David

Not to mention that (largely because of being more deadly) the deaths are more likely to occur in clusters and predominantly in metropolitan areas. So even if we were looking at "only losing 80K" citizens... it might occur over the space of 60-90 days... which is a big difference than over 9-10 months (and spread out more evenly across the entire population).

Secondarily, there are many strains of flu which are handled fairly well via inoculation - so I might agree with "meh it's just like the flu" when we have a COVID-19 shot we can get at the beginning of the season to cut down on the transmission vectors. Evidence is one thing... ignorance is another.

 

[Frank Dernie]

Why didn't the world grind to a halt last year?

Because all the cases didn't occur in one month
It is the least technical sound minds that believe the bollox you are writing.
Thank goodness there are so few here.

 

[Shadrach]

Ok, here's the measurements and reason.
COVID19 is between 10 to 100 times more likely to cause death than flu, based on the data.
If it infects a similar number of people there will therefore be probably 800,000 to 8,000,000 deaths rather than 80,000 in the US alone.
There is no natural immunity to COVID19 from past exposure.
So it is quite likely that the number of COVID19 cases could exceed that of the flu - where there is substantial immunity from previous flu episodes.
This makes the situation worse, obviously.
How hard to understand for you is that?

David

Sources and references please.

 

[Shadrach]

For one thing a simple flu doesn't make people end up dying like they're drowning in their failing lungs, unable to have any hope for recovery without incubators via artificial breathing.
How is it so hard to see that difference? there aren't enough incubators, let alone hospital beds, combined with the very infectious nature of the disease, that is why the world is grinding to a halt. it is a question of being prepared to combat it, or better yet prevent it as some countries are managing...

I don't have any data on death unpleasantness.
None of what you've written has anything to do with the data.

 

[Shadrach]

The paper apparently doesn't state it BUT... Since you so seems intent to talk about numbers, what were the infected numbers and what was the source of the numbers cited in that article?
I have seen other articles cite 28 million flu infections and 56,000 deaths.

The key issue with Covid-19 is the mortality rate. Not the number of deaths only.

SARS 'only killed' less than 900 by the time it ended.
Ebola killed less than 10,000 during its last few outbreaks.

You want swap for those over your seasonal flu??

If you read the link you will see that the 56,000 was for the year before the year I cited.

 

[Shadrach]

Not to mention that (largely because of being more deadly) the deaths are more likely to occur in clusters and predominantly in metropolitan areas. So even if we were looking at "only losing 80K" citizens... it might occur over the space of 60-90 days... which is a big difference than over 9-10 months (and spread out more evenly across the entire population).

Secondarily, there are many strains of flu which are handled fairly well via inoculation - so I might agree with "meh it's just like the flu" when we have a COVID-19 shot we can get at the beginning of the season to cut down on the transmission vectors. Evidence is one thing... ignorance is another.

You will of course have some evidence for the above.
I didn't write it's just like the flu did I?
There is very little data regarding the length of the flu season.
Why does it matter if the deaths are over I day,or one year. The total of dead is still the same?

 

[Jmudrick]

I don't recall reading about hospital systems being overwhelmed even with shutdowns because of seasonal flu. It's a ridiculous comparison.

 

[Shadrach]

Because all the cases didn't occur in one month
It is the least technical sound minds that believe the bollox you are writing.
Thank goodness there are so few here.

Not even worth a polite reply.

 

[andymok]

TBH WHO doesn't provide data nor sources either....

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-similarities-and-differences-covid-19-and-influenza

 

[Shadrach]

I don't recall reading about hospital systems being overwhelmed even with shutdowns because of seasonal flu. It's a ridiculous comparison.

So if at the end of the Covid-19 epidemic there are less than 80,000 deaths, what then?

 

[Jmudrick]

We

So if at the end of the Covid-19 epidemic there are less than 80,000 deaths, what then?

Then the shutdowns will have been successful in preventing many times as many deaths. Obvious to the rest of us.

 

[Dave Zan]

Sources and references please.

Based on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Still hard to estimate at this point, incomplete case numbers push it up, current cases yet to die push it down
The only other datum is the 80,000 flu fatalities for the USA, supplied by you, I assumed it to be realistic even if not completely accurate.

David

 

[maxxevv]

If you read the link you will see that the 56,000 was for the year before the year I cited.

So what is the source of your source then ?

It says 80,000 deaths ? What was the infection rate then if the figures are factually verifiable ?

If you have 96 million infections and 80,000 deaths, what does that make the mortality rate ? (I'll make up my numbers since that article doesn't cite its base comparison, neither do you )

The latest Johns Hopkins numbers for Covid-19 say there are about 600,000 infections and 30, 0000 deaths , what does that make the mortality rate ?

If you want hard figures, here's your numbers from the US CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Get that straight, the number for mortality range from 0.04 % to 0.16% at the two ends of the spectrum from your CDC numbers.
What's the current mortality number for Covid-19 again ?

If its indeed so hard to sink in, I can only think of 2 possibilities:

i) You are TROLLING.

ii) You need someone close to you or you yourself to get infected to understand the gravity of the issue.

 

[Shadrach]

We


Then the shutdowns will have been successful in preventing many times as many deaths. Obvious to the rest of us.

There have for other viruses been inoculations which have prevented some deaths. You would need data to make a comparison.

 

[Shadrach]

So what is the source of your source then ?

It says 80,000 deaths ? What was the infection rate then if the figures are factually verifiable ?

If you have 96 million infections and 80,000 deaths, what does that make the mortality rate ? (I'll make up my numbers since that article doesn't cite its base comparison, neither do you )

The latest Johns Hopkins numbers say there are about 600,000 infections and 30, 0000 deaths , what does that make the mortality rate ?

If you want hard figures, here's your numbers from the US CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Get that straight, the number for mortality range from 0.04 % to 0.16% at the two ends of the spectrum from your CDC numbers.
What's the current mortality number for Covid-19 again ?

If its indeed so hard to sink in, I can only think of 2 possibilities:

i) You are TROLLING.

ii) You need someone close to you or you yourself to get infected to understand the gravity of the issue.

I have someone close to myself infected and currently in hospital. You're post is offensive and ignorant.

 

[MediumRare]

I wasn't going to bother posting any further comment and I'll take the chance of getting banned for not trotting along with the hysteria.
ASR is supposed to be an evidence based site. It's why I joined. There are hundreds of subjectivist style sites that completely ignore the scientific data and empty your wallet with a form of of hysteria, all based around 'I hear this so it is so.'
....
Last years flu season in the USA alone it is estimated that 80,000 people died from 'the flu.'

Why didn't the world grind to a halt last year?

Three points for you to consider:
- Covid-19 did not REPLACE the flu, it is IN ADDITION. That is why the heath care systems are being overwhelmed.
- A far greater proportion of cases require hospitalization even for future survivors. The experience of having the disease is traumatic for both the ill and for family members.
- you are not appreciating the exponential nature of the advancing infections.