What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

[Hiten]

Really I think we had enough of this whataboutism. I'm here in the middle of it and this is rather insulting. We all can do these calculations and they don't add anything to the conversations. I've been following this thread because a lot of people are posting news that is useful. This is not.

Intention was to discuss the severity of the disease.
Anyway sorry about that. There is virologist on diyAudio who is giving very usefull information. Search 'Supply chain broken' thread in Lounge section.
Take care and all the best.
Regards

 

[Hiten]

"The current death rate for China in 2020 is 7.402 deaths per 1000 people, a 1.94% increase from 2019."

Population of China = 1,408,526,449

That's 1,408,526 thousands, times 7.402 = 10,425,909 deaths in a year, 28,564 per day.

If interested in a specific area, use the population of that area to estimate your answer.

---

Hubei Province - 58,500,000 population, 58,500 thousands, 433,017 deaths per year, 1,186 per day

If they had 2,902 CV deaths in the last 60 days, that's an extra 48 per day, for an estimated 1,234 per day.

So roughly about 4 % increase which otherwise would have been normal.
Thanks and regards.

 

[PierreV]

I'd like to see:

Statistics on how this virus affects two groups:

1) Those that got a "flu shot" every year
2) Those that didn't (me)

The folding and binding of proteins still have their mysteries, which means we can and do have surprises now and then.

For influenza, the variations in yearly flu shots are essentially tracking the mix of NA and HA proteins expressed on the surface of that particular yearly strain. If your immune system is able to recognize those and bind anti-bodies to them, the vaccine works.

For COVID, the current focus is on spike proteins, which are structurally and functionally different
https://thenativeantigencompany.com/novel-coronavirus-antigens-now-available/

Unlikely to have an overlap.

Likewise, Oseltamivir, which is active against the flu, is a competitive inhibitor acting mostly on the surface of the cell, whereas Remdesevir is a nucleotide analog that essentially disrupts the reproduction of single-stranded RNA viruses. But influenza is negative-sense and Coronaviruses are positive-sense and that introduces another set of issues.

 

[andymok]

Just saying, I don't see how good or useful it is to compare figures between diseases, unless we're trying to get the corona one's to match the others...thats why I'm so sad about these.

 

[North_Sky]

Intention was to discuss the severity of the disease.
Anyway sorry about that. There is virologist on diyAudio who is giving very usefull information. Search 'Supply chain broken' thread in Lounge section.
Take care and all the best.
Regards

Do you have a direct link please? I sure can use very good useful info in the now all around me and around the entire globe.

Around me ...
• https://www.theobserver.ca/news/nat...emic/wcm/250a1a3c-0993-4880-b271-39c4544de3f8

Around the globe ...
• https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/style/the-rich-are-preparing-for-coronavirus-differently.html

 

[g29]

The site appears to give a good daily realtime update summary.

 

[sweetchaos]

Guatemala:

Guatemala President Giammattei declares state of emergency due to coronavirus. The country has so far no confirmed cases. (twitter)

Population of 17 million, border with Mexico.

Among the actions that are planned to be done, is to increase alerts with airlines to prevent suspicious cases from entering, as well as work on prevention in schools, distributing printed material, which is already ready and that will soon be printing. (soy502.com)

That's very proactive. Good for them!

 

[Hiten]

Do you have a direct link please? I sure can use very good useful info in the now all around me and around the entire globe.

The thread actually is not about virus. But on later pages it was discussed. Seantkezm posted some usefull info.
Link.
Regards.

 

[RayDunzl]

Looking at updates in the big map...

90 countries now report cases.

I wonder why...

 

[digicidal]

The previous link suggested that Chinese males smoke more (47.1%) than their female counterparts (1.8%) and that may explain the higher mortality rate between men and women in the study. I wonder if that hypothesis holds true between regions with more or less smokers (read: respiratory impairments).
Italy is a 24% and South Korea is at 27%.

Although having a higher incidence of respiratory impairment is definitely contributory, I think it's probably much more simple than that. Smokers (regardless of type, including vaping) are far, far more likely to touch their mouths with unwashed hands while out in public. So I would presume that they are much more likely to be susceptible to surface contamination transmission. I'd say even more likely with e-cig users... when was the last time you saw someone wiping down their vaporizer with alcohol?

I've often wondered how much illness statistics take that into account. Certainly tobacco use isn't helping anyone's immune system, but I think the other behavioral aspects are at least similar in their impact - especially for those who work in public buildings. If you're in a densely populated urban setting and have to smoke outside... how many door handles and elevator buttons are you touching immediately prior to that smoke break?

As far as the direct statistics, it's also common for women to be much more proactive in seeking treatment earlier than their male counterparts... that could have a significant impact on the mortality statistics as well. Since previous coronavirus infection seems to have some factor, I'd guess that in general smokers have had more non-threatening virus incidents in their lifetimes as well for the above reasons.

 

[g29]

Although having a higher incidence of respiratory impairment is definitely contributory, I think it's probably much more simple than that. Smokers (regardless of type, including vaping) are far, far more likely to touch their mouths with unwashed hands while out in public. So I would presume that they are much more likely to be susceptible to surface contamination transmission. I'd say even more likely with e-cig users... when was the last time you saw someone wiping down their vaporizer with alcohol?

I've often wondered how much illness statistics take that into account. Certainly tobacco use isn't helping anyone's immune system, but I think the other behavioral aspects are at least similar in their impact - especially for those who work in public buildings. If you're in a densely populated urban setting and have to smoke outside... how many door handles and elevator buttons are you touching immediately prior to that smoke break?

As far as the direct statistics, it's also common for women to be much more proactive in seeking treatment earlier than their male counterparts... that could have a significant impact on the mortality statistics as well. Since previous coronavirus infection seems to have some factor, I'd guess that in general smokers have had more non-threatening virus incidents in their lifetimes as well for the above reasons.

Good point. Had not considered that, but makes sense.

I thought this was amusing. Do as I say, not as I do !!!

A health official from Santa Clara County, Calif., has gone viral online after footage surfaced of her licking her finger shortly after advising the public not to touch their faces to prevent the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19).

 

[sweetchaos]

North Korea:

Chinese authorities have warned people to stay away from the border with North Korea, which is closed due to coronavirus, or risk being shot by North Korean guards - Reuters (source)

In one notice seen by Reuters, it said the China-North Korea border is being monitored 24 hours a day and added: "Violators will be shot" (source)

North Korea is playing Defend the Castle...

 

[North_Sky]

The thread actually is not about virus. But on later pages it was discussed. Seantkezm posted some usefull info.
Link.
Regards.

Thx, I went back into the discussion.

Looking at updates in the big map...

90 countries now report cases.

I wonder why...

Congestion ... that becomes contagion.

 

[North_Sky]

America, this is not a drill

 

[digicidal]

Pretty cool that Russia is almost completely surrounded by cases, yet only has 4 cases themselves... in the middle of the country no less.

They're definitely great at containment... of information, at least.

 

[g29]

Pretty cool that Russia is almost completely surrounded by cases, yet only has 4 cases themselves... in the middle of the country no less.

They're definitely great at containment... of information, at least.

I thought it was the Russian Vodka ???

The Moscow Times indicates there are 7 cases and 2 of them have recovered.

 

[raistlin65]

Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463

"We therefore reviewed the literature on all available information about the persistence of human and veterinary coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces as well as inactivation strategies with biocidal agents used for chemical disinfection, e.g. in healthcare facilities. The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62–71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute."

 

[North_Sky]

Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463

"We therefore reviewed the literature on all available information about the persistence of human and veterinary coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces as well as inactivation strategies with biocidal agents used for chemical disinfection, e.g. in healthcare facilities. The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62–71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute."

• https://www.audiosciencereview.com/...ronavirus-2019-ncov.11102/page-35#post-342074

 

[North_Sky]

Pretty cool that Russia is almost completely surrounded by cases, yet only has 4 cases themselves... in the middle of the country no less.

They're definitely great at containment... of information, at least.

Russia is not part of world's concerned citizens?
It's a band apart, with their own rules, their own games, their own lies ...

 

[PierreV]

FWIW, a kid at my daughter's school (but not from the same class) tested positive, coming back from an Italy holiday. This is definitely getting closer to me now and more concrete...