What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

[raistlin65]

Interesting perspective on how the US economy would be affected based on a survey of what people say they would do during an outbreak in this piece from Forbes. For example, "Restaurants, bars, and coffee shops are also likely to take a hit, with 61% saying they will avoid these if the outbreak worsens."

If Coronavirus Takes Hold In U.S., It Will Be More Than A Retail Apocalypse—It’ll Be Armageddon

 

[sweetchaos]

That pdf file sure gave me a precipetrous vanishment.
Twice when on page three...pouf! ...All gone, computer lost all graphics, resetting itself few seconds later.

Anyway December 8, 2019 sounds like a reasonable date.

* You from Vancouver area?

Yes...but luckily I live on a mountain away from the city, in my cave.

 

[North_Sky]

Yes...but luckily I live on a mountain away from the city, in my cave.

I'm across the water from you.

Whistler area?

 

[maxxevv]

Yes...but luckily I live on a mountain away from the city, in my cave.

Ohh ... which part of BC is that ?

Haven't been back to Langley in about 20 years !

 

[North_Sky]

Interesting perspective on how the US economy would be affected based on a survey of what people say they would do during an outbreak in this piece from Forbes. For example, "Restaurants, bars, and coffee shops are also likely to take a hit, with 61% saying they will avoid these if the outbreak worsens."

If Coronavirus Takes Hold In U.S., It Will Be More Than A Retail Apocalypse—It’ll Be Armageddon

Methinks we haven't seen the deep bottom of the tank ...
Strap ourselves it's going to be a long ride to the bottom ...
...A pandemonium global market in a global pandemic situation not fully realized ...

 

[North_Sky]

Ohh ... which part of BC is that ?

Haven't been back to Langley in about 20 years !

They have cavemen there living up in the mountains.

 

[sweetchaos]

Coquitlam. The land of coyotes and bears...if I had a dollar for every animal we see during the week, my jar would be full.

One time I saw a pack of coyotes try to corner my neighbours dog. The neighbour freaked out when he saw a coyote, and started running to grab the dog (dog had no leash). Dog was just barking at one coyote...completely clueless, while the other one was coming around the side, behind a car. Both the owner and the dog didn’t even see the second coyote. I was watching from my window, when this happened. They really do hunt in packs.

Our strategy is simple...avoid the wildlife, and the virus.

 

[maxxevv]

Coquitlam. The land of coyotes and bears...if I had a dollar for every animal we see during the week, my jar would be full.

One time I saw a pack of coyotes try to corner my neighbours dog. The neighbour freaked out when he saw a coyote, and started running to grab the dog (dog had no leash). Dog was just barking at one coyote...completely clueless, while the other one was coming around the side, behind a car. Both the owner and the dog didn’t even see the second coyote. I was watching from my window, when this happened. They really do hunt in packs.

Our strategy is simple...avoid the wildlife, and the virus.

A friend stays there!
There's a chance that you guys may actually know each other considering that the town isn't that big.

In any case, the last time I was there was to Kelowna / Penticton for a trade show in 2000. Stopped over at Langley where my previous job's associate company was located.

Wonderful scenary, coming from a (mostly) concrete city.

 

[sweetchaos]

A friend stays there!
There's a chance that you guys may actually know each other considering that the town isn't that big.

In any case, the last time I was there was to Kelowna / Penticton for a trade show in 2000. Stopped over at Langley where my previous job's associate company was located.

Wonderful scenary, coming from a (mostly) concrete city.

Probably not. I'm the only audiophile I know...
Kelowna is beautiful, when there's no forest fires.
Vancouver, Whistler and Kelowna are the top 3 places (besides the Island) people should visit when traveling to BC.

But I digress...

South Korea:
President Moon Jae-in declared a "war" on the fast-spreading virus.

New changes going forward:

1. All of the government's organizations to shift to a "24-hour emergency situation room system," citing the need to bolster readiness to handle quarantine and economy-related measures.
2. Authorities will expand virus tests on ordinary citizens in Daegu as they have completed tests on Shincheonji followers who have shown symptoms.
3. The government will set up more isolation facilities in Daegu by early next week to admit some 2,000 virus patients

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200303003455320

 

[maty]

Some interesting graphs.

[Spanish] https://elpais.com/ciencia/2020-03-...n-la-gripe-los-numeros-dicen-que-es-peor.html

 

[digicidal]

Can you imagine what the real numbers are here, and what the stock market does if they ever admit to them? I mean if the CDC numbers were anywhere close to accurate (before they removed them entirely that is) - we've tested as many people in total as S. Korea tests in an afternoon (the quote below is for the first drive thru test facility on the day it opened):

In response to the crisis, South Korea has more than 500 coronavirus testing sites, which have screened more than 100,000 people.
When the drive-through opened on February 26, it was the first of its kind in the country and has tested as many as 384 people in one day.

Source

 

[maxxevv]

As far as propagation trends to date go, fully expect the US to hit at least the same figures as France, Germany within the week on an optimistic scale.
On the pessimistic end of the spectrum, Italy's numbers.

 

[maty]

The logical thing is that in the US the numbers are worse because of their health system.

In these situations the economic cost should not be an obstacle. States have to assume the cost in a first phase and then pass it on to medical insurance. And assume the expense of those who do not have it covered for the good of the community.

It is what is supposed to be done in cases of emergencies, be they sanitary or others.

 

[digicidal]

As far as propagation trends to date go, fully expect the US to hit at least the same figures as France, Germany within the week on an optimistic scale.
On the pessimistic end of the spectrum, Italy's numbers.

I'd take Italy's numbers at this point... unless you meant per-capita... in which case that's what I'm thinking too. So just under 6 times the number of cases. Not that I expect that to be published anyway... China isn't the only country experienced in controlling/manipulating unpopular information.

The logical thing is that in the US the numbers are worse because of their health system.

In these situations the economic cost should not be an obstacle. States have to assume the cost in a first phase and then pass it on to medical insurance. And assume the expense of those who do not have it covered for the good of the community.

It is what is supposed to be done in cases of emergencies, be they sanitary or others.

Most states do this already. At least as far as public hospitals are concerned - they're required to provide services regardless of the ability to pay for those services... and the state picks up the tab on defaults. However, seeing as how many public hospitals are already overburdened with providing these services to non-taxpaying patients (undocumented migrants, homeless, low-income residents) - if this continues through the spring and summer, it's likely many will simply fold outright due to lack of operational funds. Unless the federal government steps in with supplemental funding.

 

[raistlin65]

Methinks we haven't seen the deep bottom of the tank ...
Strap ourselves it's going to be a long ride to the bottom ...
...A pandemonium global market in a global pandemic situation not fully realized ...

Not sure how far we have to go, but I agree it's not over, and this could push the US (and the world) into recesssion.

From MarketWatch today: The coronavirus is taking aim at the heart of the American economy: Consumer spending

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, although it is still clinging to containment as its base case, warned Monday that growth could be negative worldwide in the second quarter unless the virus can be contained. Under its less-than-rosy scenario, global growth would be slashed in half, and global equity GDOW, +3.30% and commodity prices CL00, +2.31% would fall 20% in the first nine months of the year, the OECD said.

Economists at several banks, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, are also rethinking that assumption. Deutsche says the U.S. economy could contract in the second quarter of the year, while Goldman projects zero growth in the quarter.

Growth in the United States and globally could be just half of what was projected just a month ago, these economists say, and that’s assuming that the Federal Reserve and other central banks slash already low interest rates to flood their economies with stimulus.

 

[raistlin65]

US currently has 10% of face masks needed for a ‘full-blown’ coronavirus pandemic, HHS official says

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/us-...n-coronavirus-pandemic-hhs-official-says.html

As much as I like to gripe about how much ammo the US military stockpiles, I'd be a lot happier right now if they had been in charge of preparing us. I don't think we'd be so short on masks.

 

[North_Sky]

In 1918 (Spanish Flu) it was a wakeup call, with between 20 and 100 million deaths.
The human population on Earth @ that time was also much much less than it is today 101 years later.

This Coronavirus has the considerable potential of killing many of our elderly, sick, weak, low immunity system population, ...

It happened so quick and we're only scratching the surface of mostly an invisible and deadly common enemy to us all. It's no time to play games and tell lies and preach sermons atop mountains, it's time to work all together to fight this virus quickly and put aside everything else non important in life. This is the survival of the human species.
This is the future of human reproduction, this is the fight against disease and pollution, this is the human right of all on Earth.
This is truly a serious reality of life.

 

[Frank Dernie]

In 1918 (Spanish Flu) it was a wakeup call

And almost nobody could afford international travel.

 

[MattHooper]

Interesting perspective on how the US economy would be affected based on a survey of what people say they would do during an outbreak in this piece from Forbes. For example, "Restaurants, bars, and coffee shops are also likely to take a hit, with 61% saying they will avoid these if the outbreak worsens."

If Coronavirus Takes Hold In U.S., It Will Be More Than A Retail Apocalypse—It’ll Be Armageddon

This is why I've been shaking my head at people who I know, and those on talk radio etc, who aren't taking this seriously. I asked my elderly father-in-law what contingency plans he had for the pandemic. He's a penny-pincher by nature and was like "Oh, I don't think it will be too bad. If things worsen I'll get what I need from the store." The store shelves are ALREADY mostly out of many of the things you need, especially sanitizers etc.
If you go to the average pharmacy on any normal day and look at the hand sanitizer section (or any similar product) you'll see probably 6 bottles or so. They can't put many more on the shelf. It takes just ONE person to scoop all those up! Meanwhile, thousands are panicking to get this stuff so of course items like these are going to vanish quickly.

I heard a talk show host mocking the over-reaction by many in the public when talking about all the line ups and empty shelves (rice is going, milk, eggs, meat, toilet paper, cleaners/sanitizers, water etc). "It's not like this is a hurricane or whatever where there won't be any food, water or heat!
People are stupid." And he's proud of not being one of these people "overreacting."

But the thing is, to be rational, you don't simply figure in the consequences of the virus or getting sick. You figure in the effects it will have on your fellow citizens. Is it the best thing if everyone starts hoarding stuff from the stores? Maybe not. But is it going to happen? OF COURSE. So one is hardly smart to sit back mocking the panic'd hoarding while NOT getting what you can now yourself. You have to factor in how society will react within your plans. I'm far from a prepper in normal circumstances. But I at least was cognizant of how things would likely go and managed to grab a decent amount of the essentials suggested for the pandemic before they were gone.

 

[maty]

BTW, the 1918 flu originated in Kansas (US), in military camps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

The last flu pandemy (2009) had its origen in Mexico.