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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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CtheArgie said:
Actually, recovered patients with full antibody formation is what vaccination aims for. They can’t get it again and are unlikely to transmit.
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So, can these people work and go outside? These people could be given tags so that they are identified easily and do about business as usual during lockdowns and control movement.
 
raif71 said:
So, can these people work and go outside? These people could be given tags so that they are identified easily and do about business as usual during lockdowns and control movement.
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They are “biologically” vaccinated. Once this rate gets high enough, the chance of infection to the rest of the population can get quite low. This is what is called “herd immunity” level.
Cynically, the college idiots on the beach facilitate this process.
 
CtheArgie said:
They are “biologically” vaccinated. Once this rate gets high enough, the chance of infection to the rest of the population can get quite low. This is what is called “herd immunity” level.
Cynically, the college idiots on the beach facilitate this process.
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Even more cynically, they are largely disposable in that pursuit IMO - not inherently of course, merely by their behavior and disregard for the welfare of others. I say if we could only sacrifice 20% of those still going to the beaches and clubs during this spring break... that's a more than fair price. Of course, I'd probably feel different if I were in their demographic... but when I was, it was the potential draft for the first gulf war that was going to kill me - not a virus that I could have just stayed home to avoid. :rolleyes:

Unfortunately, you can't create the herd-immunity "omelette" without breaking a really terrifying number of "eggs" - something many of us have forgotten over the past century. Of course, we've forgotten what a significant economic depression is like as well... but it's looking like history lessons are coming in pairs this year.
 
dwkdnvr said:
OTOH, much of the initial "the US isn't ready" press seemed to indicate that we didn't have the capacity of other countries.
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How many in the press do you think looked at in any meaningful way? It never surprises me when they (any of them) get 'it' spectacularly wrong.


dwkdnvr said:
Well, the end-of-life care problem is a huge topic in it's own right.
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Indeed...along with beginning of life issues, among the most difficult to get very far with...
 
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raif71 said:
These recovered people or those that are immune to the virus now can go about doing work and contribute better than people working from home and come back end of the day to a designated hotel or place until the epidemic subsides. Does this make sense?
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Once the medical service providers are recovered, they can then better treat patients without as much worry of getting reinfected as well.
 
digicidal said:
Although the most catastrophic outcomes often involve a variety of related systemic issues (organ failure, sepsis, etc.) and comorbidity interactions - the bulk of the ICU bed requirements are simply a ventilator and isolation. So if we can figure out how to rapidly spin up manufacture of the equipment itself (and if we have any healthcare workers left by that time) there are a ton of "field hospital" possibilities here. Similar to what they've been doing in Spain with re-purposing existing structures.

For example, here in Vegas... all of the hotels are completely shut down... so there's ~150K potential ICU rooms... pretty much ready-to-go, just need equipment and staff (and better air filtration... but that's optional-ish if everyone is already positive). Due to our compulsive hoarding and greed... we've also got millions of storage units... and even in rural areas where the local clinic or hospital has only 2 rooms maybe. I couldn't find any count of the number of rent-able units, but with ~45K-60K facilities covering 1.7 billion square feet of space... I'm guessing it's at least a few million. Here the average facility has 100 units, some >300. Plus there's similar options for mobile quick facilities or triage.

Sure there's cleanup afterwards... but since we're trying to figure out how many trillions we're going to print to "buy our way out of this"... :rolleyes: there should be plenty of job opportunities for decontamination workers for a long time to come.

Ultimately though, the biggest problem everywhere in the world is the profound lack of medical professionals - whose numbers are dwindling by the day as they become casualties in this war. Sadly there's no cure for that problem that can come in time... unless we're way farther along than I'm aware, with regard to autonomous AI-driven robotic doctors. ;)
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In the US, there are state university and college campus dorms in most cities. That's likely to be a lot cheaper than renting from Hilton or Marriott. I know Chicago is already doing that. I hope all state governors are exploring that possibility.
 
MediumRare said:
I find that chart hard to believe if Illinois has only 1764/127=13.9
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raistlin65 said:
In the US, there are state university and college campus dorms in most cities. That's likely to be a lot cheaper than renting from Hilton or Marriott. I know Chicago is already doing that. I hope all state governors are exploring that possibility.
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When they build temporary hospitals, convention centers and even indoor parking lots do just fine. No shortage of places/space. It's that pesky issue of ventilators, still-healthy health care workers, heart monitors, oxygen, ya know, the odds and ends.
 
CtheArgie said:
You could get reinfection if it occurs before the person fully develops antibodies or a sufficiently different virus infects that is not recognized by the immune system. It is very unlikely.
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depends on the mutation rate of the virus and selection regime
 
leftside said:
Certainly not exponential which was a lot of people feared.
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It's exponential with a daily varying exponent...

> 1 = growth
< 1 = decline
 
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