What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

[Sak]

Obviously this could be due to reporting issues

I think there is no problem with reporting issues. At least not more than in any other country.

Any ASR folks here who currently live in Russia? I'm curious what conditions are like there: testing, government efforts (e.g., promoting social distancing, getting people to work from home, etc.), general perceptions of covid-19.

There reason I ask is because Russia is the 9th largest country in the world (by population), yet it appears as of 2020-03-20:

• only 253 confirmed cases
• only 1 fatality
• source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (the Johns Hopkins covid-19 tracking database)

1)Rapid response to the emergence of coronavirus in China.
2)Thermal imagers were quickly installed at all border crossing points.
3)Inspected all arriving passengers with the slightest suspicion.
4)People with symptoms of the disease are immediately quarantined.
5)128 quarantine centers were created, 110,000 tests were conducted.
6)Schools are temporarily closed. Some work online. Universities also work online
7)All sports and entertainment events canceled nationwide
8)All restaurants and cafes are subject to preventative cleaning.
8)People are advised not to visit places where there are a lot of people
9)At the moment, All russians who are returning from other countries to their homeland are subject to compulsory quarantine for 2 weeks. Even those who have no symptoms.
10)Issued visas to foreigners.

The latest and most accurate information can be found here with google translate:

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Пандемия_COVID-19

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

https://www.rospotrebnadzor.ru/about/info/news_time/news_details.php?ELEMENT_ID=13566

Sorry for my bad english.

 

[carlob]

maybe after coronavirus you guys will discover the bidet

 

[LTig]

The low lethality of the coronavirus in Germany: an exception that could cease to be
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/03/20/actualidad/1584729408_422864.html

Lethality / fatality and test per million inhabitants

View attachment 55255

This is something I'm wondering as well. I think the number of infected persons is much higher than reported, could be 10 times more in Germany, but maybe 100 times more in other countries. On first notice this is a horrible thought, but it could also mean that the crisis is over faster than we think now, and that the final death rate is much lower as we think now (if the majority of infected persons doesn't show any signs of sickness and just spreads the virus).

@maty stay safe!

 

[maty]

[Spanish] https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/2...la-rioja-ultimas-noticias-hoy-en-directo.html

[ A life expectancy of less than 1-2 years, the "biological" age or the "social value" of the patient are some of those criteria included in the document "Ethical recommendations for decision-making in exceptional crisis situations due to a pandemic coronavirus Covid-19 in intensive care units ".

It is a matter of replacing, in these exceptional times, the criterion of "first to arrive, first to enter" with an estimate of who can benefit the most from the treatment. ]

 

[maty]

Los ingresos en las UCI por coronavirus aumentan en un 41% en 24 horas
[Spanish] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03...oronavirus-aumentan-en-un-41-en-24-horas.html

[ Con unas UCI ya desbordadas, el incremento de ingresos en las últimas 24 horas es especialmente preocupante: 471 pacientes, es decir, un 41% más que este viernes, hasta sumar los 1.612. La cifra más que duplica y hasta triplica el número de ingresos diarios de los últimos días. España roza los 25.000 casos de Covid-19, y alcanza ya los 1.326 muertos, según las últimas cifras del Ministerio de Sanidad, de este sábado a mediodía.

El dato de ingresos en Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos en todo el país es el más alto en los últimos cinco días, desde que el Gobierno empezó a dar cifras centralizadas a diario. De los 131 del martes 17, o los 211 de un día después, se ha saltado a los 471 de este sábado. “Vienen los días peores”, había avisado este viernes el ministro de Sanidad, Salvador Illa. ]


ICU admissions for coronavirus increase by 41% in 24 hours

[ With some ICUs already overflowed, the increase in income in the last 24 hours is especially worrying: 471 patients, that is, 41% more than this Friday, to add up to 1,612. The figure more than doubles and even triples the number of daily incomes of the last days. Spain touches the 25,000 cases of Covid-19, and already reaches 1,326 deaths, according to the latest figures from the Ministry of Health, this Saturday at noon.

The income figure for Intensive Care Units across the country is the highest in the last five days, since the government began giving centralized figures daily. Of the 131 of Tuesday 17, or the 211 of a day later, it has jumped to 471 of this Saturday. "The worst days are coming," the Minister of Health, Salvador Illa, had warned this Friday. ]

 

[MediumRare]

maybe after coronavirus you guys will discover the bidet

What is the news from Italy and Lombardy? The continuing 15% daily growth in cases and apparent morbidity is shocking. We're worried for you - and also for Spain and ourselves.

 

[Jess]

[QUOTE = "maty, post: 354982, miembro: 637"] En España, el 50% de los infectados terminan en el Hospital . En algunos , el triaje ya se está utilizando para seleccionar a los que tratan primero ... por edad . Y no solo acceso a salas de UCI (donde están los dispositivos respiratorios) .

Las causas de la mayor gravedad en España son desconocidas por ahora. [/ CITA]


No es exacto. Las personas asintomáticas no se cuentan porque no han sido analizadas. Y no están hospitalizados. Absolutely false that hospitals discriminate by age. There is a protocol that not only considers age. Get informed and stop writing biased news. The situation is alarming and will probably overwhelm us, but stop manipulating the headlines in the press. Fortunately the ACR people are not stupid and contrast news objectively.

 

[carlob]

What is the news from Italy and Lombardy? The continuing 15% daily growth in cases and apparent morbidity is shocking. We're worried for you - and also for Spain and ourselves.
View attachment 55267

Unfortunately news are not good in Lumbardy, still growing like crazy in some areas. Also Pedmont, Veneto and Emilia Romagna still have active hotspots. Rest of Italy is pretty much slowly growing but I'd say it's mostly under control. They said that we should peak in a few days, hope so.
In the meantime in Lumbardy they almost tripled available ICU beds, this is extraordinary given the circumstances. Now the problem is that we have beds and the needed hardware (mostly ventilators and monitors) but we're short of personnel trained to use them.

I live in Rome which is in the Lazio region and the situation here is less worrying but still I have a couple of colleagues that got it and now are in hospital with pneumonia, also my parents are both >85 and that is a cause of concern for me.

You can follow here, it's updated every day shortly after 6pm local time: https://statistichecoronavirus.it/regioni-coronavirus-italia/

 

[Jess]

[QUOTE = "Jess, post: 355129, miembro: 8060"] [QUOTE = "maty, post: 354982, miembro: 637"] En España, el 50% de los infectados terminan en el Hospital . En algunos , el triaje ya se está utilizando para seleccionar a los que tratan primero ... por edad . Y no solo acceso a salas de UCI (donde están los dispositivos respiratorios) .

Las causas de la mayor gravedad en España son desconocidas por ahora. [/ CITA]


No es exacto. Las personas asintomáticas no se cuentan porque no han sido analizadas. Y no están hospitalizados. Absolutamente falso que los hospitales discriminan por edad. Hay un protocolo que no solo considera la edad. Infórmese y deje de escribir noticias sesgadas. La situación es alarmante y probablemente nos abrumará, pero deja de manipular los títulos en la prensa. Afortunadamente, las personas de ACR no son estúpidas y contrastan las noticias objetivamente. [/ CITA]

Además, como en todos los países, hay muchas personas infectadas que tienen síntomas leves y no están hospitalizadas. If 50% of those infected end up in the hospital, the world collapses.

 

[andymok]

To give you an idea how its like about droplet, every 1mL contain 100,000,000 virus, every sesame-size droplet can easily contain 100,000 virus

https://topick.hket.com/article/2574778/【新冠肺炎】港大發現一滴口水有10萬病毒　何栢良：醫護面壁進食減少傳播風險

 

[carlob]

Absolutely false that hospitals discriminate by age. There is a protocol that not only considers age. Get informed and stop writing biased news.

This is interesting, the press (I'd say mostly international press but also small Italian outlets) had run big headlines on that regarding Italy. It was of course incorrect but it makes for a dramatic story and a lot of clicks. Now same treatment for Spain.

 

[MediumRare]

Unfortunately news are not good in Lumbardy, still growing like crazy in some areas.

You can follow here, it's updated every day shortly after 6pm local time: https://statistichecoronavirus.it/regioni-coronavirus-italia/

Thank you for the update and the link. I see in Lombardy the morbidity rate is 11.4%. We understand the morbidity is driven by age. What do you think explains the very high rate for the elderly in Italy (about 24% v 15% reported in China)?

Here in Illinois, our Shelter in Place takes effect at 5 pm tonight which will bring the total in the US to about 75 million. It will go up surely in the next couple of days. My parents are 81 and 88 and have been in lockdown for about 10 days.

 

[carlob]

Thank you for the update and the link. I see in Lombardy the morbidity rate is 11.4%. We understand the morbidity is driven by age. What do you think explains the very high rate for the elderly in Italy (about 24% v 15% reported in China)?

Our average age is much higher than China and elderly usually carry one of more pre-existent phatologies but also morbidity rate is number of deaths divided by number of infected. I think that the number of infected is way underreported.

Also there are statistics on deaths by age and by number of pre-existent phatologies, sorry but only in Italian but I think charts are understandable: https://www.iss.it/documents/20126/...7-53d5-eb89-087e-285e2cadf44f?t=1584727721898

That is not updated as of today so it shows stats on 3200 deaths.

 

[MediumRare]

I think looking at morbidity as cumulative fatalities/cumulative cases is the wrong way to do it and dramatically understates the issue. This is because the average duration from symptoms to death is 14 days. Thus, would it not be more accurate to divide daily morbidity by the daily confirmed cases approximately 12 days prior? Can anybody try to graph that for a couple countries and see how it comes out?

 

[MediumRare]

Our average age is much higher than China and elderly usually carry one of more pre-existent phatologies but also morbidity rate is number of deaths divided by number of infected. I think that the number of infected is way underreported.

I understand, but the death rate WITHIN each age group should be comparable - unless you are saying they don't bother to test the elderly already showing symptoms?

 

[carlob]

I understand, but the death rate WITHIN each age group should be comparable - unless you are saying they don't bother to test the elderly already showing symptoms?

I agree but the only comparison I was able to find is this one, not sure about the reliability of the data

 

[LTig]

I think looking at morbidity as cumulative fatalities/cumulative cases is the wrong way to do it and dramatically understates the issue. This is because the average duration from symptoms to death is 14 days. Thus, would it not be more accurate to divide daily morbidity by the daily confirmed cases approximately 12 days prior? Can anybody try to graph that for a couple countries and see how it comes out?

You are correct, but it can also be seen the other way: taking the morbidity rate for granted (which is IMV not wrong when looking to Wuhan where the numbers seem to stailize) you can detuct that the number of infected people 14 days ago is in reality much higher than reported.

 

[carlob]

You are correct, but it can also be seen the other way: taking the morbidity rate for granted (which is IMV not wrong when looking to Wuhan where the numbers seem to stailize) you can detuct that the number of infected people 14 days ago is in reality much higher than reported.

exactly

 

[carlob]

the issue is that any death rate you see around is incorrect because we don't know the exact number of infected and also because the infection is still in progress. So if you tested a lot of people your death rate is likely to go down, if you didn't make many tests your death rate is likely to go up etc. Also I'm pretty sure that elderly are less tested compared to general population for many reasons.

 

[RickSanchez]

I think there is no problem with reporting issues. At least not more than in any other country.


1)Rapid response to the emergence of coronavirus in China.
2)Thermal imagers were quickly installed at all border crossing points.
3)Inspected all arriving passengers with the slightest suspicion.
4)People with symptoms of the disease are immediately quarantined.
5)128 quarantine centers were created, 110,000 tests were conducted.
6)Schools are temporarily closed. Some work online. Universities also work online
7)All sports and entertainment events canceled nationwide
8)All restaurants and cafes are subject to preventative cleaning.
8)People are advised not to visit places where there are a lot of people
9)At the moment, All russians who are returning from other countries to their homeland are subject to compulsory quarantine for 2 weeks. Even those who have no symptoms.
10)Issued visas to foreigners.

The latest and most accurate information can be found here with google translate:

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Пандемия_COVID-19

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

https://www.rospotrebnadzor.ru/about/info/news_time/news_details.php?ELEMENT_ID=13566

Sorry for my bad english.

Thank you for the detailed reply, I appreciate the insights.