• WANTED: Happy members who like to discuss audio and other topics related to our interest. Desire to learn and share knowledge of science required. There are many reviews of audio hardware and expert members to help answer your questions. Click here to have your audio equipment measured for free!

What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

Status
Not open for further replies.
I was just listening to a pod cast from one of my university's social science statisticians, and he argued that perhaps apart from some of the unpublished modelling in our National Institute for Public Health none of the numbers and fancy graphs that are circulating have any meaning. As I also argued, what is needed is real data, and the only robust data that we have are numbers on deaths and hospital/ICU admissions. What we do not know and desperately need to know is the real level of infections, detected and undetected, and hence also the trend in emerging immumities.
What is also needed is more information on those who have died or became badly ill. The Spanish Flu was so horrific because it primarily killed the young, and hence many years of healthy lives were lost (which is the metric used in public health). That is quite different from the current epidemic, where the victims are overwhelmingly old or very old, and may well have died a few months later if there had not been this pandemic (after all, one day everybody dies). That makes a really big difference in one's assessment. Interestingly, here in the Netherlands about two thirds of those who died did not die in hospital but at home. They were overwhelmingly old and frail, often with multiple existing medical issues, and opted to die at home rather than in hospital. So corona patients in hospital are rather younger on average. The challenge for the health system is to make sure that these younger patients can continue to be cared for.
 
Very good for now. I am the only one who steps on the street and makes the purchase. I am very methodical with cleaning. To walk, the terrace of my house.

If things were done well, I estimated two months of quarantine and an additional fifteen days to confirm the disappearance of the virus. But people, as governments, are doing very bad. Too many people fail to comply the confinement as other European countries, which will inevitably lead to stricter and harsher confinement than was done in China.

As said, a mediocre society (Spanish and Catalan) has the habit of choosing mediocre leaders.
 
maty said:
Very good for now. I am the only one who steps on the street and makes the purchase. I am very methodical with cleaning. To walk, the terrace of my house.
Click to expand...

Stay well Maty...gotta keep those optimized pictures coming...
 
being just a tiny city, having the lowest figures on earth, why bother to play safe I thought, maybe we should have flown in n out to bring more cases for the statistics’ sake, be dangerous, maybe the world’s financial centre and the leading SARS team would perform better too.
 
Last edited:
[Catalan] Catalunya registra 933 nous positius i la xifra total d'afectats supera els 4000, les morts s'enfilen fins a les 122
https://www.ara.cat/societat/corona...ualada-morts-positius-altes_0_2420158156.html

Catalonia registers 933 new positive results and the total number of affected exceeds 4000, deaths climb to 122
https://translate.google.es/transla...ualada-morts-positius-altes_0_2420158156.html

[ The Ministry of Health has informed this Friday night that in the last hours 933 new coronavirus positive ones have been confirmed in Catalonia, which raises the total number to 4,203. This new figure represents an increase of 28.53% over the previous day.

Of the total number of cases accumulated so far, they have died with Covid-19, a total of 122 people, 40 in the last 24 hours, an increase of 48.78% compared to Thursday... ]
 
maty said:
Of the total number of cases accumulated so far, they have died with Covid-19, a total of 122 people, 40 in the last 24 hours, an increase of 48.78% compared to Thursday... ]
Click to expand...

The very first death made an increase of ∞%, so, already past the worst possible percentage.

Try to stay safe, advise others to do so too, it will all be ancient history after a while.
 
RayDunzl said:
The very first death made an increase of ∞%, so, already past the worst possible percentage.

Try to stay safe, advise others to do so too, it will all be ancient history after a while.
Click to expand...
Agreed. However, the aftereffects are likely to continue to be felt for years to come unfortunately.

Here in my state it seems that shutting down everything is keeping things somewhat decent - still increasing, but not at any significant rate. The nice thing is that you have to figure that everyone getting tested is symptomatic and/or known contact individuals until the last couple days (when they opened some drive-through testing locations). Even with that, it's only about 5% positives. The not so nice thing is that there are still many untested and/or asymptomatic carriers in the population. Still much better than the flu at this point (less widespread I mean) - but likely not for much longer.
 
Last edited:
digicidal said:
Agreed. However, the aftereffects are likely to continue to be felt for years to come unfortunately.
Click to expand...
Maybe, maybe not. If people will quit going off the deep end about what they think is coming I'd say not. If it is controlled, and especially if they get a vaccine within 6 months, I doubt it will have many after effects one year from now, and will seem like history two years from now.
 
Blumlein 88 said:
Maybe, maybe not. If people will quit going off the deep end about what they think is coming I'd say not. If it is controlled, and especially if they get a vaccine within 6 months, I doubt it will have many after effects one year from now, and will seem like history two years from now.
Click to expand...
I wasn't referring to potential lasting health effects... other than a few edge cases I'd expect that to be fairly minor.
I was referring more to the economic, psychological, etc. effects.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-de...overnment-responds-to-coronavirus-11584568685
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/business/coronavirus-corporate-debt.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/investing/corporate-debt-coronavirus/index.html
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthc...irus-mental-health-issues-will-prolong-impact
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/managing-stress-anxiety.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ation-social-recession-physical-mental-health
 
raistlin65 said:
I'm making little TP hooks that attach to the ceiling so you can place them all over your house and will sell them on Amazon. No need for an extra room! ;)
Click to expand...
I'm thinking you will get a small, yet noticeable improvement to your sound by reducing those vertical reflections too. :)
 
digicidal said:
I wasn't referring to potential lasting health effects... other than a few edge cases I'd expect that to be fairly minor.
I was referring more to the economic, psychological, etc. effects.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-de...overnment-responds-to-coronavirus-11584568685
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/business/coronavirus-corporate-debt.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/investing/corporate-debt-coronavirus/index.html
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthc...irus-mental-health-issues-will-prolong-impact
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/managing-stress-anxiety.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ation-social-recession-physical-mental-health
Click to expand...

To add to this, there are some generations in the US (and maybe other countries) that are likely to be more impacted psychologically.

I'm Generation X. We grew up with the Cold War and the knowledge that, either through purpose or by accident, all life as we know it on the planet was in danger of being destroyed with a couple of presses of buttons (or phone calls). In the mid-80s, when the US and USSR announced agreement on major nuclear disarmament and then with the fall of the Berlin wall, I felt a weight lifted. I'm sure people my age in Europe did, too.

I feel that kind of weight again now. Certainly, this is not global annihilation. But it's a global impending disaster that, assuming it lasts even just a few months, will probably profoundly change each of our countries socially and economically. I think many of us know to "embrace the suck" of what this is, and go on with your life doing what you need to do. Just like we did during the Cold War.

Why is it different now to deal with a global crisis like this? Generation X and some younger Boomers grew into the Cold War as we slowly learned bits and pieces of it as we grew up. Millennials and Generation Z are having to confront a global crisis in a few short weeks. Millennials are older. It won't be easy, but I believe Millennials will find their way into it faster and more easily. But Generation Z doesn't even know who they are yet at their age. They will have a tougher time as they discover themselves through what happens. I expect the effects on them to be dramatic in ways we can't even predict.
 
Dimitri said:
Most homes will have a room added to store toilet paper!
Click to expand...

The new dream will be to move to the country and have a toilet paper farm.
 
Any ASR folks here who currently live in Russia? I'm curious what conditions are like there: testing, government efforts (e.g., promoting social distancing, getting people to work from home, etc.), general perceptions of covid-19.

There reason I ask is because Russia is the 9th largest country in the world (by population), yet it appears as of 2020-03-20:
As such Russia's covid-19 numbers are smaller than countries like Estonia and Iceland. Obviously this could be due to reporting issues but wondering what -- if any -- other components might be accounting for the low numbers.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom