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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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Ratatoskr

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As usual the CDC and WHO are your most reliable sources (not reddit) of information on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Unfortunately basic information like R0 (infectivity) of the virus is not yet known, there is speculation but no consensus. Data from China is most likely being under reported. WHO believes the RO is between 1.4 and 2.5. If the R0 was higher than 2-3, we should have seen more cases globally by mid January 2020.
 

raistlin65

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As usual the CDC and WHO are your most reliable sources (not reddit) of information on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Unfortunately basic information like R0 (infectivity) of the virus is not yet known, there is speculation but no consensus. Data from China is most likely being under reported. WHO believes the RO is between 1.4 and 2.5. If the R0 was higher than 2-3, we should have seen more cases globally by mid January 2020.
Those estimates are likely mostly based on data from similar viruses. I imagine that they do not have enough data yet to make projections on the current outbreak, given that China is not a reliable source of information.
 

Ron Texas

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As usual the CDC and WHO are your most reliable sources (not reddit) of information on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Unfortunately basic information like R0 (infectivity) of the virus is not yet known, there is speculation but no consensus. Data from China is most likely being under reported. WHO believes the RO is between 1.4 and 2.5. If the R0 was higher than 2-3, we should have seen more cases globally by mid January 2020.
Data released by the Chinese may not be accurate. Remember they sanctioned physicians who sounded the alarm last month.
 

g29

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When did the Diamond Princess initially set sail? As a self-contained petri dish of the Coronavirus, this would give some indication of how contagious the virus is and how long it takes for symptoms to start occurring.
The ship was carrying 2,666 guests and 1,045 crew onboard when it set sail on Jan. 20.

Coronavirus onboard Diamond Princess cruise spreads: At least 135 cases, 20 Americans

Some cruise ships take on and drop off passengers are different ports of call along their path. Also, it appears there are now more than 1 cruise ships/floating petri dishes involved.

The cruise ship is one of several affected by the deadly coronavirus outbreak, which has prompted cruise lines to issue quarantines and perform screenings onboard. Meanwhile, some ports are denying at least one cruise ship entry over fears of the virus.
 
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Ron Texas

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This is the big story worldwide. The Diamond Princess sounds more and more like a horror movie. With a few embellishments it could be one. I'm wondering what's going on right now with cruise ship bookings and cancellations. Obviously, Asia is locked up.

The overwhelming majority of those sickened on the Diamond Princess are Japanese, followed by Americans. I am concerned the Japanese can't find an onshore quarantine for at least It's own nationals.
 
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digicidal

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Long before this I've wondered why anyone would ever pay to go on a cruise. When you see how fast, often, and pervasively something like a norovirus outbreak takes out the majority of passengers (though thankfully not fatally except in rare cases) it's a really terrifying prospect.

This is the big story worldwide. The Diamond Princess sounds more and more like a horror movie. With a few embellishments it could be one. I'm wondering what's going on right now with cruise ship bookings and cancellations. Obviously, Asia is locked up.

The overwhelming majority of those sickened on the Diamond Princess are Japanese, followed by Americans. I am concerned the Japanese can't find an onshore quarantine for at least It's own nationals.
It appears they are turning others away for those reasons... seems the Princess situation may have alerted them to more serious deficiencies in their protocols or contingencies. I'm sure there is an avalanche of cancellations occurring - even if there aren't by the passengers, the lines themselves have already started. This is going to have a massive economic impact as well... Wynn Resorts is losing $2.5M per day in Macau apparently - they're doing the "right thing" and compensating employees still... but if this goes on for weeks (which it basically has to I think) - layoffs will be sweeping and at the worst possible time for many.

Obviously the far bigger issue is the thousands (possibly millions) who will ultimately die from the virus - which virtually guaranteed considering how last month went. However for many, especially in recently developing areas in China, just being unemployed for months (even if you don't get sick) could potentially be a death sentence as well.
 

Ron Texas

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So last I heard, there was speculation a single patient zero. If that is true in just under three weeks, it has spread to 130 people. Now we have some useful data on understanding what can happen in three weeks in a crowded urban population where a single coronavirus carrier might have a lot of contact with people. Doesn't look too good.
Somewhere I read an 80 year old man got on at Hong Kong, the first stop, and tested positive later. I don't know if all other possibilities can be eliminated, but this is believed to be the patient zero. The link in post #142 is being updated by Princess.

@digicidal to the best of my knowledge the entire cruise industry is shut down in Asia. All or nearly all flights between the US and China are canceled. Factories are closed. It's a gigantic mess.
 

digicidal

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@digicidal to the best of my knowledge the entire cruise industry is shut down in Asia. All or nearly all flights between the US and China are canceled. Factories are closed. It's a gigantic mess.
Yes it is... and it seems we're just getting started. I shudder to think what another month may bring us. Luckily my wife and I already live a "pandemic lifestyle" so we'll not be too impacted even if the US looks like China eventually. We do eat out all the time (though never at popular restaurants and never during peak times) so that would have to change, but we're stocking up on canned goods and consumables already. Never hurts to be prepared.
 

raistlin65

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Yes it is... and it seems we're just getting started. I shudder to think what another month may bring us. Luckily my wife and I already live a "pandemic lifestyle" so we'll not be too impacted even if the US looks like China eventually. We do eat out all the time (though never at popular restaurants and never during peak times) so that would have to change, but we're stocking up on canned goods and consumables already. Never hurts to be prepared.
Yep. The "insurance" of having enough food and other basic goods to last for a few months is not too costly when one considers the risk that it avoids.
 

g29

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Crematoriums are being backlogged giving priority to confirmed and suspected coronavirus victims.

[Exclusive] Daily cremation of about 341 new crown dead in the two halls of Hubei

"...In this special investigation of the funeral home in Hubei, both You Hu and Xinzhou funeral home confirmed to the investigators that most of the remains were not taken from the hospital but directly from the deceased's home.

You Hu said, "I made a statistic a few days ago, 38% were received by the hospital, and 61% died at home." "So the medical condition is very bad. "" If you think about it, more than 60% died at home. " ..."
 
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Wes

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Hey - I just had a great idea! You hack into all the sequencers out there and re-program them to make bio-warfare viruses ...

You could spread things all over the world really fast
 

sweetchaos

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How long is the incubation period?

1. WHO says:
The incubation period is the time between infection and the onset of clinical symptoms of disease. Current estimates of the incubation period range from 1-12.5 days with median estimates of 5-6 days. These estimates will be refined as more data become available. Based on information from other coronavirus diseases, such as MERS and SARS, the incubation period of 2019-nCoV could be up to 14 days. WHO recommends that the follow-up of contacts of confirmed cases is 14 days.
2. A peer-reviewed medical research paper (article) (pdf) posted on Feb 09, 2020 says:
The median incubation period was 3.0 days (range, 0 to 24.0 days).
How many patients were tested?
-n=1099

Who provided the funding?
-Supported by Ministry of Science and Technology, National Health Commission, National Natural Science Foundation, Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province.

Any conflict of interest in parties?
-No

Can someone update WHO, please!?

Another interesting graph was posted in the same paper:
1581379494385.png

A couple of observations can be made here:
1. The highest Failure Risk (%) (aka death) after getting infected is after 21 days, for all patients.
2. Recovery (%) for those infected is very low early on, during the first 21 days or so, but steadily rises after 21 days.
3. For severe cases, the failure rate (%) sharply rises every day until day 21 and stays constant every day after that. Also, for these severe cases, recovery is not improved after day 25 or so.
 
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digicidal

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Ron Texas

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“With 99 percent of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a video conference with hundreds of researchers on Tuesday. (Fox)

“We have to invest in preparedness,” he said, adding that richer countries should help invest in countries with a weaker health system.
The director-general said the virus could “create havoc” if it reaches a country whose health system is not capable of handling such an epidemic.
“I have a great concern that if this virus makes it to a weaker health system it will create havoc,” he said. (CNN)

Meanwhile, the Westerdam remains stuck at sea as the Thai government has reneged on it's offer of a port. They will allow resupply and refueling.
 

g29

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“With 99 percent of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a video conference with hundreds of researchers on Tuesday. (Fox)

“We have to invest in preparedness,” he said, adding that richer countries should help invest in countries with a weaker health system.
The director-general said the virus could “create havoc” if it reaches a country whose health system is not capable of handling such an epidemic.
“I have a great concern that if this virus makes it to a weaker health system it will create havoc,” he said. (CNN)

Meanwhile, the Westerdam remains stuck at sea as the Thai government has reneged on it's offer of a port. They will allow resupply and refueling.
There is very little news out of North Korea. The virus is in all neighboring countries and there were a couple of vague reports it entered NK. I would not think NK would have what is considered SOTA health care systems.
 

Ron Texas

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There is very little news out of North Korea. The virus is in all neighboring countries and there were a couple of vague reports it entered NK. I would not think NK would have what is considered SOTA health care systems.
North Korea isn't known for it's transparency. Your post shows insight.
1058c414-8e06-45c3-9968-d26b6c3744f5.jpg
 
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