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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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While I'm sure anyone following this list is likely to be convinced of this already, this study could be helpful in convincing politicians to fund more testing per capita and implement significant social distancing measures:

"Overall, our findings indicate that a large proportion of COVID-19 infections were undocumented prior to the implementation of travel restrictions and other heightened control measures in China on 23 January, and that a large proportion of the total force of infection was mediated through these undocumented infections (Table 1). This high proportion of undocumented infections, many of whom were likely not severely symptomatic, appears to have facilitated the rapid spread of the virus throughout China."

Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)
 
I am a wee bit skeptical about the herd mentality concept. In Wuhan the exposure rate was 80,000/12,000,000 = 0.7%. Is that enough to confer immunity on the whole population? Also, the UK population is 66 million, 5.5 x Wuhan. So does that mean they are ready to accept 3,200 x 5.5 = 17,600 deaths? NL, same story. Have they really thought this herd immunity concept through?
 
MediumRare said:
I am a wee bit skeptical about the herd mentality concept. In Wuhan the exposure rate was 80,000/12,000,000 = 0.7%. Is that enough to confer immunity on the whole population? Also, the UK population is 66 million, 5.5 x Wuhan. So does that mean they are ready to accept 3,200 x 5.5 = 17,600 deaths? NL, same story. Have they really thought this herd immunity concept through?
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Its actually 67,000 across the province of Hubei. Which has a population of ~58million.
That is roughly 0.11% of population.
Wuhan's numbers were about 60,000. About 0.55% of population.
And that was with enforced lockdown and rigorous testing of contact cases.
Numbers could be much much higher without the draconian measures in place.

UK might have similar infection numbers if there is a lockdown. Else it will be higher eventually.
But I don't think mortality will be the same. Once the hospitals get swamped and overwhelmed, those numbers will climb dramatically.
 
maxxevv said:
Its actually 67,000 across the province of Hubei. Which has a population of ~58million.
That is roughly 0.11% of population.
Wuhan's numbers were about 60,000. About 0.55% of population.
And that was with enforced lockdown and rigorous testing of contact cases.
Numbers could be much much higher without the draconian measures in place.

UK might have similar infection numbers if there is a lockdown. Else it will be higher eventually.
But I don't think mortality will be the same. Once the hospitals get swamped and overwhelmed, those numbers will climb dramatically.
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Fair enough, I was being generous. So it reinforced my argument: There is no herd immunity at a 0.11% infection rate.
 
MediumRare said:
Fair enough, I was being generous. So it reinforced my argument: There is no herd immunity at a 0.11% infection rate.
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Agreed, unlikely.

There is the other extreme that herd immunity doesn't exists either. There was this curious case of a Hong Kong lady whose dog also tested positive for the virus but didn't seem ill either. And a very small handful of cured patients in China who still carried the virus on them.
So even if the person was immune after being cured, he/she might still be carrying the virus and by proxy, implies being able to infect others.

Herd immunity may work on flu viruses but this is closer to SARS and MERS. Anyone actually verified this concept on these viruses ??
 
Couple of weeks ago I posted about a French professor who said C19 could be tackled with massive testing and administration of chloroquine. While being pilloried by some on the French social an other media he still got the green light to begin testing last week and while I realize this may be hard to follow for most of you, here are his initial, promising findings.
 
Researchers in Italy have tested an entire community: Coronavirus: "50-75% of cases in Vo 'are asymptomatic. A formidable source of contagion"

Google translation of the first two paragraphs

"The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion". The Professor of Clinical Immunology of the University of Florence Sergio Romagnani writes this at the top of the Tuscany Region, in anticipation of a strong increase in cases also in the Region, on the basis of the study on the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo where the 3000 inhabitants of the country are been subjected to swab.

The immunologist explains that the data provided by the study carried out on all the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo highlight two very important information: "the percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases above all, but not only that, among young people; and the isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and the severity of the disease ".
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So, yesterday also the Finnish governement declared strict restrictions to slow down Covid-19. As member of EU our 1000+km border to Russia will be closed for people and travelling anywhere abroad restricted. Meetings banned for 10+ people. Libraries, sport and culture halls etc. closed. Schools closed for kids older than 11 years. Daycare and preschool will be open so that healthcare personnel can keep on working. 70+ seniors told to isolate socially. All this until April 13th, at this time. Compensation funding for entrepreneurs and companies promised.

There is one person in intensive care because of Covid now, population 5,5 millions...

201624742-2.jpg
 
With regards to the high rate of asymptomatic infections in Tuscany, this is exactly what was found in a similarly large population test in the most heavily infected region of the Netherlands.
There is a silver lining to this, of course. These people are now immune. So my question would be what percentage of the tested group was in fact infected, asymptomatic or not. I read the Italian article and it does not say so - only what proportion of those infected was asymptomatic. Our National Institute for Public Health in the Netherlands expects at least 50% of the population to become infected.
 
Mapa(s) de riesgo de propagación de COVID-19 por contagio comunitario en España
http://deim.urv.cat/~alephsys/COVID-19/spain/es/index.html

Map(s) of risk of spread of COVID-19 by community contagion in Spain

Hospital overload map

According to the CoVID-19 case prediction, according to the model, we can predict the overload factor of the ICU intensive care health system.

First, we assume an optimistic scenario of ICU occupancy of 0% pre-CoVID, that is, all ICU beds are assumed to be free. On this scenario, we calculate the total cases of ICU need for CoVID-19 that we will have on March 18. This value is obtained as 5% of the total number of cases per CoVID-19 offered by the model. This 5% corresponds to the most recent data on ICU care required by CoVID-19 according to the latest official report of cases in Spain...
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covid-19-factor-carga-UCI-camas-18032020.png



Until yesterday, 30 covid-19 positive at Tarragona province.

[Spanish] https://www.diaridetarragona.com/ta...a-demarcacion-de-Tarragona-20200316-0050.html
 
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[Spanish] https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20200317/474218839842/coronavirus-cuantos-casos-hay-espana.html
Nadie sabe exactamente cuántos portadores del coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 hay en este momento en España. El número real puede situarse por encima de los 100.000, según una estimación realizada por La Vanguardia a partir de los datos epidemiológicos conocidos hasta ahora. De no haberse adoptado las medidas de confinamiento aprobadas en los últimos tres días, la cifra podría haber alcanzado los 300.000 casos el próximo fin de semana.

Los 9.921 pacientes diagnosticados hasta ayer son la punta del iceberg. Bajo la superficie quedan los muchos otros casos que han contraído el virus y tienen síntomas del Covid-19 pero no han sido identificados...
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No one knows exactly how many carriers of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus are currently in Spain. The actual number may be above 100,000, according to an estimate made by La Vanguardia from the epidemiological data known so far. If the confinement measures approved in the last three days had not been adopted, the figure could have reached 300,000 cases next weekend.

The 9,921 patients diagnosed until yesterday are the tip of the iceberg. Beneath the surface are the many other cases that have contracted the virus and have symptoms of Covid-19 but have not been identified...
 
The measurements regarding co2/climate change are still going on. At least we can see what the impact is regarding production an movement (cars flights ships etc etc). Hope we could learn from this an use this data by extrapolate it such that we see what has relative the most interesting impact on our environment. So if working from home ad's a exponential reduction in Co2 we could worldwide enforce laws to work from home lets say 3 day's a week. Or some governments are thinking about helicopter money which could become an sort of universal/basic income instead of propping up the financial markets with trillions we did in 2008 benefit the 1%. Basically if this go's on for several month nationalization of vital companies and utility/healthcare companies could be forced (they go broke) creating a opportunity to change things for the better focused on our enviroment an people instead of the 1%.

update:

Just heard from a friend of mine who is a software developer that their backlogs which is 3 weeks of work was reduced in only 5 day's to almost zero because they worked from home I'm talking about a major company here in Holland. So working from home will create a situation that for instance (by his reasoning) you don't have endless coffee breaks or bullshit talks which hold up work a lot. If this data is seen by the business owner he will probably embrace working from home an can cut jobs considerably or work at least far more efficient.
So the developers that are fired could work for companies who don't have this developers at the moment because they are rare or work for high salaries these companies can't afford. Agile managment/working but not for making more money but working efficient an help the enviroment. Oportunities oportunities...........
 
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MediumRare said:
Not a political point: your argument is defective - he specifically bought ALL the stock anywhere he could drive to in order to create a shortage. Of course there are others like him. This is a breakdown in the market, not a free market. Monopoly power is not "right".
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He was only able to do that because the price is not adjusted. By the way I prefer to have someone like him selling the product at 10 times the price rather than a shortage of the product. He is filling the gap. The market is not correcting for the increase in demand. So rather than passively waiting that all supplies are gone, he is making sure that everyone will have some.
And there is no monopoly here.
 
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