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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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gikigill

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China is fudging numbers as usual, be it coronavirus or their economy.

Coronavirus QE.png


Numbers China will provide over the next few days to suit their model.

09/02/2020 38675 cases 808 fatalities
10/02/2020 43084 cases 900 fatalities
11/02/2020 47733 cases 997 fatalities

Not my work but an interesting observation.
 

g29

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China is fudging numbers as usual, be it coronavirus or their economy.

View attachment 49040

Numbers China will provide over the next few days to suit their model.

09/02/2020 38675 cases 808 fatalities
10/02/2020 43084 cases 900 fatalities
11/02/2020 47733 cases 997 fatalities

Not my work but an interesting observation.
This realtime map indicates 34.4K "confirmed cases", but also indicates an additional 26.4K "suspected cases" at the bottom putting the total number as high as 60.8K.

 

gikigill

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Where is he sourcing his data from? It just seems like he is collating data from commonly available sources without verifying their veracity.

A Balinese guy who suddenly starts livestreaming the nCov outbreak is a bit suss especially considering his suggestions to avoid being infected.

"i am suggesting to anyone to Boost your immunity by Eating 3 Cloves Raw Chopped Garlic, Mix it with 2 Spoon on Raw Honey / Black Honey if Possible... let it sit for 7 Minutes... Mix it with 1 Glass of Water and Drink it. to prevent anything worst if this outbreak come close to your neighbourhood"

Why 3 cloves and not 2 or 4? 2 Spoons of Honey? What if i leave the mix for 8 instead of 7 minutes? :)

"Avoid Direct Contant With Other People"? Thanks for the suggestion mate but plenty of people manage to do that even without an epidemic :D
 
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sweetchaos

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Where is he sourcing his data from? It just seems like he is collating data from commonly available sources without verifying their veracity.
That Youtube Livestream and many, many, many similar livestreams are all going to:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The source of that website:
Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering using data provided by the World Health Organization, the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the U.S., the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, and Dingxiangyuan, a social networking site for health care professionals that provides real-time information on cases.

"i am suggesting to anyone to Boost your immunity by Eating 3 Cloves Raw Chopped Garlic
:facepalm:
1581124900239.png

Source
 

Ron Texas

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The idea that fatalities are 2% is not correct. Fatalities are of victims who became ill 10 days or more ago when there were far fewer infections. The actual death rate is probably 8 or 10%. This data could be disclosed, but it is not. It could be worked out by medical statisticians outside China, but authorities are trying to prevent panic. Meanwhile all Chinese nationals are being denied access to cruise ships without regard to whether they have been in China recently.
 

sweetchaos

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While the Johns Hopkins website posted above is shown everywhere on Youtube, there's 3 problems I see with it:
1. It's not up-to-date as other sources (see link below that will)
2. They don't include links to their sources (see link below that will)
3. They don't provide an easy way to see how many cases are "recovered, serious, or critical" conditions. (see link below that will)
1581125730600.png
1581125736205.png


Is there another source of information?
Yes.

Here's what I believe to be a better source, that solves all those 3 problems above:
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
1581125712221.png


This is monitored by BNO News => is an international news agency headquartered in Tilburg, the Netherlands.

Also, they have a very active Twitter account, and people are always tweeting them (including myself) new information as it breaks.
I can see that they're updating the website constantly, every 5min or so.

As you can see, the current number of cases is different than Johns Hopkins website.
 
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g29

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While the John Hopkins website posted above is shown everywhere on Youtube, there's 3 problems I see with it:
1. It's not up-to-date as other sources (see link below that will)
2. They don't include links to their sources (see link below that will)
3. They don't provide an easy way to see how many cases are "recovered, serious, or critical" conditions. (see link below that will)
View attachment 49059 View attachment 49060

Is there another source of information?
Yes.

Here's what I believe to be a better source, that solves all those 3 problems above:
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
View attachment 49058

This is monitored by BNO News => is an international news agency headquartered in Tilburg, the Netherlands.

Also, they have a very active Twitter account, and people are always tweeting them (including myself) new information as it breaks.
I can see that they're updating the website constantly, every 5min or so.

As you can see, the current number of cases is different than John Hopkins website.
The numbers are virtually identical. Not enough of a delta to be of significance.

I am sure there are more unreported and unconfirmed cases that would make much more of a statistical impact.

34,902 confirmed versus 34,817
27,657 suspected versus 27, 657
722 dead versus 723
 
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gikigill

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That Youtube Livestream and many, many, many similar livestreams are all going to:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The source of that website:
Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering using data provided by the World Health Organization, the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the U.S., the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, and Dingxiangyuan, a social networking site for health care professionals that provides real-time information on cases.


:facepalm:
View attachment 49055
Source
I would disregard the Chinese data for the time being. Hopkins is a lot more trustworthy at this point/
 

maxxevv

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The idea that fatalities are 2% is not correct. Fatalities are of victims who became ill 10 days or more ago when there were far fewer infections. The actual death rate is probably 8 or 10%. This data could be disclosed, but it is not. It could be worked out by medical statisticians outside China, but authorities are trying to prevent panic. Meanwhile all Chinese nationals are being denied access to cruise ships without regard to whether they have been in China recently.
If you play with the numbers and statistics, it can be the other way round too.

There are more infected than detected and percentage of mortality in relation to actual infection numbers is lower than official figures to date. If its anywhere near the mortality rates you are suggesting, then the WHO would have eclared it a medical emergency at the earliest instance. Similar to SARS back in 2003. Where initial mortality rates were closer to 15%, eventually ending up at 9+ %.

Actual, accurate mortality/fatality rates won't be available until infection figures hit a stable plateau and that being and holding for up to 14 days.

If I were to make a reasonable guesstimate based on previous viral outbreaks, this one will likely be just under 1..75% when it all blows over. And it will probably take 4~6 months based on how infectious it is.
Final figures within China alone probably be about 200,000 (1% infection rate with 20 million exposed to it) at the end of it. With about 3000~3500 deaths.

Lets see who get's closer.
 

sweetchaos

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I would disregard the Chinese data for the time being.
Whether you think data reported by Chinese gvn't is correct or false is a personal opinion. I think the *consensus* online is that Chinese gvn't are under-reporting data. Given Chinese gvn't track-record so far, I'm not surprised. I do think that Chinese gvn't is under-reporting, as well.

Hopkins is a lot more trustworthy at this point/
Hopkin's site uses the same source as BNOnews (see my post above), so I don't see a difference of overall credibility. Both are credible. I do like BNONews more, as they seem to be more transparent with their sources and data, and are generally faster to report statistics. But I see no reason to doubt Hopkins data, as it's verified by US CDC, WHO, etc.
 
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Whether Govt. data is correct or not will/can not be proved. According to reports most deathes are in sealed off Hubei area. People there are overwhelmed by tough task of virus treatment and basic essential medical help, hospitals etc. Lockdown has somewhat helped in containment of spreading of virus. Otherwise the problem could have worsened. But tragedy is willingly or unwillingly due to lockdown people have sacrificed their lives. Feel sad for innocent people. Hope things improve.
Regards.
 

gikigill

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Whether you think data reported by Chinese gvn't is correct or false is a personal opinion. I think the *consensus* online is that Chinese gvn't are under-reporting data. Given Chinese gvn't track-record so far, I'm not surprised. I do think that Chinese gvn't is under-reporting, as well.


Hopkin's site uses the same source as BNOnews (see my post above), so I don't see a difference of overall credibility. Both are credible. I do like BNONews more, as they seem to be more transparent with their sources and data, and are generally faster to report statistics. But I see no reason to doubt Hopkins data, as it's verified by US CDC, WHO, etc.
The reason the Chinese data is not adding up is because it follows the pattern of a quadratic equation. People getting infected in a quadratic fashion and dying in a quadratic fashion just doesn't add up. The data points and variables show probabilties of trillion to 1 and I would be buying up every lottery ticket I could find if it was that accurate.

BNO seems fine so far and Hopkins is probably more aligned with the CDC which seems to have a better track record.
 

beefkabob

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Nothing from the Chinese government can be fully believed, and JHU and the WHO get their info from the Chinese government. Save the ship, sacrifice the third class passengers. When you have 1.4 billion people, what are a few million here and there?
 

sweetchaos

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I think there's "some" good news...

As of 6 hours ago:
GENEVA, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The head of a World Health Organization-led international team investigating the coronavirus outbreak will leave for China on Monday or Tuesday, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said. Tedros, asked whether the team would include experts from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), told a press conference on Saturday: “We hope so.”
Remember, up till now China REFUSED and DELAYED international support from countries and especially World Health Organization (WHO).
 

g29

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amrim why is this stuff considered appropriate to this site.
Just a guess:

"...
News, Reviews and Information You Can Use

Let's post any informative topics of interest to membership. Examples would be news reports, scientific discoveries, equipment reviews, etc. ..."
 
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