• WANTED: Happy members who like to discuss audio and other topics related to our interest. Desire to learn and share knowledge of science required as is 20 years of participation in forums (not all true). Come here to have fun, be ready to be teased and not take online life too seriously. We now measure and review equipment for free! Click here for details.

What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

Status
Not open for further replies.

mi-fu

Addicted to Fun and Learning
Forum Donor
Joined
Jun 7, 2018
Messages
564
Likes
572
Location
New York
#41
No, I meant that their actions speak louder than the words of the media.
Yes, I think their government took some extreme measures. Nonetheless, I heard from my friends that the epidemic is far serious than most people think or the official numbers.

There are videos showing gunshots heard in the city too.
(Warning: graphic images)
 

RayDunzl

Major Contributor
Central Scrutinizer
Joined
Mar 9, 2016
Messages
9,296
Likes
7,308
Location
Riverview FL
#42
Expect a Corona Virus Zombie Invasion Kung Fu movie soon...
 

DKT88

Active Member
Joined
Feb 26, 2019
Messages
221
Likes
214
Location
South Korea
#44
Now you got it. People don't have their eye on the ball. What fear and anxiety people have about the coronavirus is misdirected. Americans and the American media will pay undue attention to the coronavirus because it's scary, because it's different an unknown, and do little to improve on the massive number of people killed by influenza. The fact that there is a strain A and strain B flu virus going around this year at the same time is significantly more of a threat.
The point is not that the flu is endemic. the point is that if efforts to contain the coronavirus fail, there’s a reasonable chance that it will become endemic. As with influenza, this could mean that deaths occur every year as the pathogen circulates. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w
 

JohnYang1997

Major Contributor
Joined
Dec 28, 2018
Messages
3,127
Likes
3,911
Location
China
#45
To everyone that doesn't understand. Number 9 is the core issue and the most scary part. Just think about it.
 

mi-fu

Addicted to Fun and Learning
Forum Donor
Joined
Jun 7, 2018
Messages
564
Likes
572
Location
New York
#46
Whether the new virus is man-made or not is beside the point.

The most important thing is: How serious is epidemic? Do we have an effective cure or vaccine? Will it spread outside China?
 

PierreV

Addicted to Fun and Learning
Forum Donor
Joined
Nov 6, 2018
Messages
678
Likes
1,819
#47
To everyone that doesn't understand. Number 9 is the core issue and the most scary part. Just think about it.
Yeah, that is scary, as he said then.... " “[The results] move this virus from a candidate emerging pathogen to a clear and present danger,” Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance, which samples viruses from animals and people in emerging-diseases hotspots across the globe, told Nature. "

But here is the same guy today, with quite a different tone...

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/where-coronaviruses-come-from-67011

So basically, we have a standard debate in science - should we study this, with some risks (of incidents in this case), or should we reduce the risk of accidents to zero by not studying it but be exposed to a much wider incident with a lot less knowledge? There isn't a clear cut response. Then some guy works backward from the mutation rate and suspects the branching happened a while ago, something that is immediately contested by a guy who has a different mutation rate in mind...

No grounds for conspiracy theories... Oh, and both of the guys disagreeing on mutation rates have stronger data than any speaker manufacturers on speaker's preferences btw...
 

PierreV

Addicted to Fun and Learning
Forum Donor
Joined
Nov 6, 2018
Messages
678
Likes
1,819
#48
OP
A

andymok

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2018
Messages
424
Likes
433
Location
Hong Kong
Thread Starter #49
Too little too late has been done for both govts (PRC and HKSAR). Official figures have already surpassed that of SARS 2003 at all time. Figures are now rising exponentially
 

RayDunzl

Major Contributor
Central Scrutinizer
Joined
Mar 9, 2016
Messages
9,296
Likes
7,308
Location
Riverview FL
#50
Whether the new virus is man-made or not is beside the point.
I wouldn't find that to be an irrelevant data point. Does "man made" include creating the conditions where it (if it previously existed in other organisms) could make the jump (and probable mutation) to infect human hosts?

The most important thing is: How serious is epidemic?
Not yet serious enough to completely engulf the "news cycle", at least, not here. Maybe looks different near the epicenter.

Do we have an effective cure or vaccine?
That takes research time, which may be extended depending on how the virus itself mutates.

---

Can't find a working Wuhan webcam.

---

Oh, how handy...


2/3/20 snapshot 1580792169797.png

2/4/20 snapshot 1580864835307.png discussion st the U.N. -- come back tomorrow...
 
Last edited:
Joined
Dec 21, 2019
Messages
52
Likes
64
#51
Here are some numbers to think about.

With current numbers (427 deaths / 20606 confirmed cases), it's about 2% mortality rate. For journal papers, there's few out right now. Early data with 41 patients shows 15% mortality (may be where the OP got his / her numbers): https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext . A later paper I had found showed 11% with 99 patients: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext . The more data, the better the statistics will be. The journal papers will be slightly delayed from the realtime numbers as papers take time to write.

The seasonal flu is approximately 0.1% mortality rate (2019/US/CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html). The flu has maybe a 10% transmission rate compared to 2.8-26% for common coronaviruses: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext . While influenza can be severe (i.e. 1918 spanish flu pandemic), that isn't any less reason to be cautious about this 2019-nCoV...

Obvious concerns are how far this will spread. Hopefully this stays fairly contained (epidemic) and withers. If it overwhelms the local resources then all of us have issues. 2% mortality rate for something that becomes pandemic is not a nice number to think about (again, look up the 1918 flu pandemic).
 

sweetchaos

Active Member
Forum Donor
Joined
Nov 29, 2019
Messages
212
Likes
257
Location
BC, Canada
#52
Last edited:

RayDunzl

Major Contributor
Central Scrutinizer
Joined
Mar 9, 2016
Messages
9,296
Likes
7,308
Location
Riverview FL
#53
That's a much better map...
 
Last edited:

Doodski

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Dec 9, 2019
Messages
2,361
Likes
1,494
Location
Edmonton , Canada
#55
http://archive.is/F04r7

This article presents evidence the virus could've come from a possible bioweapon lab.
Major eeewwWW!

"Bowl of hot, delicious bat soup served at Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China."

I worked in a Chinese upscale restaurant in my mid teens for 2.75 years and we never ate this stuff >@^_*@< The staff food 3x daily was traditional, delicious and normal... I got a accent from hanging out with them too...lol
 

Doodski

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Dec 9, 2019
Messages
2,361
Likes
1,494
Location
Edmonton , Canada
#57
I looked at the first few quotes. They are from Washington Times. I would take the article a lot more seriously, if the quotes are from Washington Post.
I figure anything from a Bio-Weapons lab would be a whole lot worse than corona virus. Coming from a guy that had the near deadly swine flu in the late to early 70's and other nasties including catching TB from immigrants.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom