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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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I am sure about because I understand exponential growth and popn. models.
 
Updates to US IHME model (and a good follow for relevant news)

Overall US:
-# of deaths projected decreased from 93,531 to 81,766
-Projected total bed shortage went from 87,674 to 36,654
-Peak dates(April 15 for resource needed peak, 16th for peak daily death toll) unchanged
-Under 200 deaths a day: Moved from June 3 to May 18

Virginia had a really weird late peak and the model update has pulled that in to what I hope is more realistic.

Further, we've talked about what different countries have done right - the Germans, the SK, the Taiwanese - but clearly we should have been paying more attention to the Finns:

1586208301511.png
 
Poverty leads to more crime, some of it being violent. How are you so sure about this?

Everyone affected directly or indirectly gets UBI.

Spain is doing it to mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19.

Edit: Australia UK are doing too for those affected.
 
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Please don't mis-characterize what I have said. What I have said is:

"I'll bet you 10 to 1 that all these poor folks dying in NYC were not offered or prescribed hydroxychloroquine early in their illness." And I stand by my suspicion that they were not offered or prescribed hydroxychloroquine early in their illness. The report you cited says that they were being prescribed it early in the course of hospitalization. There is a big difference because by the time they are hospitalized, the virus has already done significant damage. And, yes, I am aware of the potential adverse effects, but that is why you have a primary care physician to prescribe it for you, if appropriate.

The problem is that the CDC has apparently "locked down" hydroxychloroquine for sale to retail pharmacies. I stopped by a local pharmacy here and was told that they cannot get hydroxychloroquine any more because of the CDC. The lady told me that the pharmacy owner had been on conference calls with both of our US senators about this problem. I am merely arguing that community doctors should be free to prescribe it for appropriate patients before they deteriorate to the point that they need admission to a hospital. If you wait for Dr. Fauci to get behind this, you'll be waiting a long time.

Not sure, if you got the facts straight. The FDA (!) has approved "hydroxychloroquine" (and derivatives) using an "Emergency Use Authorization" described in a "Letter of Authorization", dated 28-Mar-2020, which you may find here:
https://www.fda.gov/media/136534/download
For good reasons, which you may find upon reading the letter as well, the FDA has restricted the use of this drug. Just in case you don't know, but the FDA was implemented a long time ago to protect the citizens of the United States:
"FDA is charged with protecting the public health by ensuring the safety, effectiveness, and security of human and veterinary drugs, biological products, and medical devices".
To give you an idea of the power of this agency: the FDA is led by the Commissioner of Food and Drugs, appointed by the President with the advice and consent of the Senate.
Really, your local pharmacist may tell you whatever he wants, but the CDC has no saying in this matter
 
Not sure, if you got the facts straight. The FDA (!) has approved "hydroxychloroquine" (and derivatives) using an "Emergency Use Authorization" described in a "Letter of Authorization", dated 28-Mar-2020, which you may find here:
https://www.fda.gov/media/136534/download
For good reasons, which you may find upon reading the letter as well, the FDA has restricted the use of this drug. Just in case you don't know, but the FDA was implemented a long time ago to protect the citizens of the United States:
"FDA is charged with protecting the public health by ensuring the safety, effectiveness, and security of human and veterinary drugs, biological products, and medical devices".
To give you an idea of the power of this agency: the FDA is led by the Commissioner of Food and Drugs, appointed by the President with the advice and consent of the Senate.
Really, your local pharmacist may tell you whatever he wants, but the CDC has no saying in this matter
Well, to me it's irrelevant whether it is the CDC or the FDA that is restricting availability. That is simply what the pharmacy told me. The point is that it is apparently being restricted for community private physician prescribing, which I think is a mistake. Furthermore, physicians can and do prescribe medications "off label" all the time and most are quite familiar with this drug. The FDA did not have to make that approval for doctors to be able to prescribe it. It is estimated that as much as 20% of all prescribing is accounted for by off label uses of various drugs.
 
Not sure if this has been posted but these guys make maths interesting and this is a good simulation of how epidemics spread (note the use of the word "simulation", they go to great pains to let you know that they are not disease experts. Interesting nonetheless)

 
Please don't mis-characterize what I have said. What I have said is:

"I'll bet you 10 to 1 that all these poor folks dying in NYC were not offered or prescribed hydroxychloroquine early in their illness." And I stand by my suspicion that they were not offered or prescribed hydroxychloroquine early in their illness. The report you cited says that they were being prescribed it early in the course of hospitalization. There is a big difference because by the time they are hospitalized, the virus has already done significant damage. And, yes, I am aware of the potential adverse effects, but that is why you have a primary care physician to prescribe it for you, if appropriate.

The problem is that the CDC has apparently "locked down" hydroxychloroquine for sale to retail pharmacies. I stopped by a local pharmacy here and was told that they cannot get hydroxychloroquine any more because of the CDC. The lady told me that the pharmacy owner had been on conference calls with both of our US senators about this problem. I am merely arguing that community doctors should be free to prescribe it for appropriate patients before they deteriorate to the point that they need admission to a hospital. If you wait for Dr. Fauci to get behind this, you'll be waiting a long time.

No. HCQ should not be prescribed by your GP or community doctor friend. Unless you have Lupus or were otherwise being treated with it prior to COVID-19.

Regardless of how effective anyone thinks it is, the current supply is very limited. Is should only be prescribed by hospitals that are treating people with serious COVID-19 infections so that the supply can be used where it will help the most.
 
No. HCQ should not be prescribed by your GP or community doctor friend. Unless you have Lupus or were otherwise being treated with it prior to COVID-19.

Regardless of how effective anyone thinks it is, the current supply is very limited. Is should only be prescribed by hospitals that are treating people with serious COVID-19 infections so that the supply can be used where it will help the most.
Sigh... Has it ever occurred to you that if hospitalizations for severe covid-19 infections can be reduced by the outpatient use of hydroxychloroquine, then the hospitals would not be as overrun? Either the drug inhibits virus replication, or it doesn't. If it does, then why not use it to keep appropriate patients OUT of the hospital in the first place? Every day, we keep hearing about millions of doses coming available.
 
Massachusetts is considering a wider scale "contact tracing":

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...onomy/ar-BB12dC3l?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=hplocalnews

..."Such a program aimed at bolstering national public health would be unprecedented in the history of the country. But as the economy nosedives into what could be a depression and millions lose their jobs in the space of a few days and weeks, a government-backed effort to get those people back to work does have a precedent, in Depression-era programs like the Works Progress Administration and the Civilian Conservation Corps."...

The German gov is thinking something similar:
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...-19-contact-tracing-app-that-protects-privacy

The basic idea is how do you use a mobile app to identify folks who have been tested (i.e. healthy), provide the some kind of "certificate" (QR code on the mobile app), and get them back to work with other certified people. This involves back-tracking the GPS movement of an individual over the past 2+ weeks (data on mobile), and then proximity-match this against data-sets of known infected patients (e.g. on hospital servers).
 
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Interestingly, I just went out to the mail box and there was an unknown dog meandering down the street and it passed right by me. Needless to say, I had no interaction with it.
I passed by a sneezing cat the other day. At that time, there was no news yet about animals getting infected with covid-19. Anyway, instinctively I held my breath as I passed the cat. :oops:
 
Poverty leads to more crime, some of it being violent. How are you so sure about this?
I assumed as well a higher mortality rate in general from severe economic downturn, but apparently it did not happen during the last recession and surprisingly the Depression, just from a quick scan of a synopsis of a couple studies -- whether valid or not, I was surprised.
 
Massachusetts is considering a wider scale "contact tracing":

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...onomy/ar-BB12dC3l?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=hplocalnews

..."Such a program aimed at bolstering national public health would be unprecedented in the history of the country. But as the economy nosedives into what could be a depression and millions lose their jobs in the space of a few days and weeks, a government-backed effort to get those people back to work does have a precedent, in Depression-era programs like the Works Progress Administration and the Civilian Conservation Corps."...

The German gov is thinking something similar:
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...-19-contact-tracing-app-that-protects-privacy

The basic idea is how do you use a mobile app to identify folks who have been tested (i.e. healthy), provide the some kind of "certificate" (QR code on the mobile app), and get them back to work with other certified people. This involves back-tracking the GPS movement of an indivciufal over the past 2+ weeks (data on mobile), and then proximity-match this against data-sets of known infected patients (e.g. on hospital servers).
I turned off the location history on my cell phone the other day, because of the news that google was giving this data to government agencies. But I assume the NSA can or already has snooped into all of our movements in the US anyway.
 
Cell phone towers will give away your location and movement. It's being used to generate a heat map of Covid hotspots to better target lockdowns.

If certain parts are low risk and other are high risk, they can be managed accordingly.

In NSW and Victoria, the highest affected areas are also the richest because the rich seem to be under the impression that they won't be affected.

It was a heatmap that helped target hotspots and keep things in control in these states.
 
Sigh... Has it ever occurred to you that if hospitalizations for severe covid-19 infections can be reduced by the outpatient use of hydroxychloroquine, then the hospitals would not be as overrun? Either the drug inhibits virus replication, or it doesn't. If it does, then why not use it to keep appropriate patients OUT of the hospital in the first place? Every day, we keep hearing about millions of doses coming available.

To repeat. There is a limited supply. There is not enough to give it to everyone who has coronavirus symptoms.
 
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