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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

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MediumRare

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I see the model two (E: well, a couple) posts back and provide this one: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

This one at the least seems to do a better job of presenting the uncertainty, hopefully they continue to update it.
This is interesting, but the assumptions are a little opaque. Has anyone dug into this to check its credibility? It shows Illinois and Florida are basically going to be in good shape but NY, NJ, Mass are entering the apocalypse.
 

RayDunzl

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This is interesting, but the assumptions are a little opaque. Has anyone dug into this to check its credibility? It shows Illinois and Florida are basically going to be in good shape but NY, NJ, Mass are entering the apocalypse.
The range of estimates don't seem to be very useful...

Florida:

1585529656099.png
 

Xulonn

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The range of estimates don't seem to be very useful...
If that shaded area is the error range, you're right - confidence in the projection is quite low. A couple of days of additional data might narrow the error range.
 

Blumlein 88

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The range of estimates don't seem to be very useful...

Florida:

View attachment 56261
Yes, that varies a lot by state. Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Texas (especially Texas) have rather narrow ranges listed. I suppose you'd have to dig into their methodology to see why that is the case.
 

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stunta

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And yet with the media clearly pointing how contagious it is... and the benefits of isolating and distance... many seem to either not worried or ignoring... why?
 

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Why is it that this chart and 600,000 deaths per year are not as terrifying as CV19?

https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm

I suspect it is because CV19 brings with it a fear of the unknown and we are bombarded with fear evoking headlines.
Because you have 50+ years to prepare for it and treatments for it and medical systems set up for it and it doesn't kill you by drowning you for two weeks with blood coming out of your lungs and it doesn't kill the nurses doctors your friends your children and you don't have to close your schools companies theaters and destroy your economy and never know when it will go away if ever.

Does that answer your question?
 

stunta

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And yet with the media clearly pointing how contagious it is... and the benefits of isolating and distance... many seem to either not worried or ignoring... why?
Now ignorance and stupidity ... that seems to be contagious.

Edit: I think a lot of this has to do with the intangible nature of this disease. If it was wartime and people heard bombs dropping, they would hunker down. This virus is invisible and asymptomatic long enough to be dangerous.
 

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MediumRare

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Why is it that this chart and 600,000 deaths per year are not as terrifying as CV19?

https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm
I suspect it is because CV19 brings with it a fear of the unknown and we are bombarded with fear evoking headlines.
I think something that is often forgotten is that all of these Covid-19 deaths are in addition to all the existing deaths everyone uses for comparison. I'm pretty sure people would not be any less upset if a Boeing 747 fully loaded with passengers crashed, killing 500, every day next week, in the US, for instance, even though many die from the flu every day as well.
 
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