• WANTED: Happy members who like to discuss audio and other topics related to our interest. Desire to learn and share knowledge of science required as is 20 years of participation in forums (not all true). Come here to have fun, be ready to be teased and not take online life too seriously. We now measure and review equipment for free! Click here for details.

What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

Status
Not open for further replies.

FrantzM

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Mar 12, 2016
Messages
1,717
Likes
2,082
I am thinking how much of a good effect this social distancing has in reducing other diseases including Flu.
True but the reality is more complex. Physical interactions are important for immunity as well. Exchanging, sharing microbes is important for humans. Our immune systems need to "know" and in some ways be exposed to microbes. That is what vaccination is . Exposing the body to a low dosage of a pathogen. Suppressing these will put us at a greater risk. IMO.

Germs are not always the enemy , our response to these, is.
 
Last edited:

Shadrach

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 24, 2019
Messages
413
Likes
577
Because I took the Flu shot and could sleep easy not worrying about catching it and having someone stuff a tube in my throat to breath. Assuming said tube existed....
I'm not sure if I should take this comment seriously or not.
Probably best to assume you're joking.
 

maty

Major Contributor
Joined
Dec 12, 2017
Messages
3,846
Likes
2,328
Location
Tarragona (Spain)
I am thinking how much of a good effect this social distancing has in reducing other diseases including Flu.
An old novel (1957) by Isaac Asimov I read many years ago, too many already.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Naked_Sun



[ The book focuses on the unusual traditions, customs, and culture of Solarian society. The planet has a rigidly controlled population of 20,000, and robots outnumber humans ten thousand to one. People are taught from birth to avoid personal contact, and live on huge estates, either alone or with their spouse only. Face-to-face interaction (referred to in the book as "seeing"), and especially impregnating a woman, when replacement of a descendent is necessary, was seen as unavoidable but dirty.

Communication is completed instead through holography (referred to in the book as "viewing") where in contrast to "seeing", they are free of modesty, and have no problem if an interlocutor sees the other's naked body. A two-way teleconference allows the participants to hear and see each other, but in 3D – an idea almost unheard-of at the time of publication, when color television was a novelty. ]
 

graz_lag

Major Contributor
Joined
Oct 13, 2018
Messages
1,296
Likes
1,455
Location
Le Mans, France
Another study hopefully showing effectiveness of chloroquine and z-packs.

This is going to be controversial as this study doesn't have a proper control group.
Not only controversial ... extremely dangerous - as political leaders, elevating their own stunted knowledge above the judgement of medicine and science, rush to tell people pre-existing drugs would cure Covid-19, leading to a shortage of medications that are needed for other illnesses, and several deaths, as desperate folks rush to buy tablets that, for them, may well prove to be lethal.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/africa/chloroquine-trump-nigeria-intl/index.html
 
Last edited:

BDWoody

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Jan 9, 2019
Messages
2,615
Likes
5,098
Location
Mid-Atlantic, USA. (Maryland)
I only highlighted that because its numbers are so far left field of what flies in the common conversation.

It starkly reminds me of the bad idea (relying on herd immunity) that the UK government wanted to embark on before realising that too many people will die before that number is anywhere near plausible. Wonder if its from the same group or related group of people though.
Was Oxford behind that? I thought they'd be less likely to be dismissed so easily...

Looking at some of the other articles they are publishing, they don't seem to be trying to monkey with numbers...

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/

Screenshot_20200329-151121.png
 

Shadrach

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 24, 2019
Messages
413
Likes
577
Germs are not always the enemy , our response to these, is.
This.
It is the response that will determine the death rate; not the virulence of the disease, not it's exponential growth, no matter to what power that growth is.
A recent example of dealing with a virus in another species can be seen in the measures taken against Newcastle's disease that effects chickens.
https://www.merckvetmanual.com/poul...virus-infections/newcastle-disease-in-poultry
https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/ahfss/Animal_Health/newcastle_disease_info.html

While afaik the Chinese didn't cull the Covid-10 infected population,;) they did quickly lock down the center of the epidemic and attempted to contain it, with if we are to believe the reports, with considerable success.
The problem here in Spain and Italy and the UK is the they didn't lock down early and they didn't test. This is what is going to cause a higher than necessary death rate in the USA and has in Spain and Italy and from what I've read, other countries.
 

maty

Major Contributor
Joined
Dec 12, 2017
Messages
3,846
Likes
2,328
Location
Tarragona (Spain)

maty

Major Contributor
Joined
Dec 12, 2017
Messages
3,846
Likes
2,328
Location
Tarragona (Spain)
Crece el malestar en Italia por el coronavirus: casi tres millones de personas necesitan ayuda para comer por Ángel Gómez Fuentes
[Spanish] https://www.abc.es/internacional/ab...an-ayuda-para-comer-202003292052_noticia.html

Italy's malaise grows: nearly three million people need help eating
https://www.translatetheweb.com/?ref=TVert&from=&to=en&a=https://www.abc.es/internacional/abci-crece-malestar-italia-coronavirus-casi-tres-millones-personas-necesitan-ayuda-para-comer-202003292052_noticia.html

[ Urgent government response

On Saturday night, the Government responded urgently to this cry of alarm coming mainly from southern Italy, where there is a serious risk that some call a "social bomb" or "social duster", which can explode if urgent solutions do not come.

The prime minister announced on Saturday night 4.3 billion euros to families and another 400 million euros in buying bonds "to help citizens who do not have the money to buy necessities." ...]

[ According to Gian Maria Fara, president of the Institute for Economic and Social Political Studies (Eurispes), in Italy there are three GDP (Gross Domestic Product): one official of one billion 600,000 million euros, another submerged of 540,000 million (35% of the official) and a criminal one that abundantly exceeds 250,000 million euros. Today the black economy, that of black work, is totally blocked. ]
 
Last edited:

Xulonn

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Jun 27, 2018
Messages
1,295
Likes
3,424
Location
Boquete, Chiriqui, Panama
Perhaps when you did your science degree there was a different definition.
I find it strange that you so adamantly defend a comparison of complete datasets with the hugely incomplete one of the COVID-19 pandemic and claim that it is valid to compare them. Such illogical and wrong thinking would earn you a failing grade in any statistics class.

(Actually, I speak with authority on the subject, because I did actually fail a university statistics class. Fortunately, in the following years I worked with masters degree statisticians, one a former U.C. Berkeley professor with a Ph.D. in economics. As a result, although I cannot "do" statistics, they taught me how to recognize good statistics efforts.)

Do you not believe that it was the proper application of science and statistics that lead scientists to worry about the overwhelming of hospitals and healthcare systems around the globe?

Do you not believe that the tremendous efforts of some governments to control the spread of the disease has dampened the exponential nature of the infection rate in many nations? And allowed medical systems to perhaps better handle the situation?

And finally, since you claim to be a science and statistics expert, especially with regards to COVID-19, please tell us where the slope of the below graph will go negative - or at least, level off )

COVID-19 Deaths - March 29.jpg
 

maty

Major Contributor
Joined
Dec 12, 2017
Messages
3,846
Likes
2,328
Location
Tarragona (Spain)
https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20200329/coronavirus-espana-ultimas-noticias-directo-7817968

[ 21:11 487 infected in Catalan elderly people's homes

The Treball, Afers Socials i Famílies department has confirmed that there are 487 people in Catalonia living in nursing homes with coronavirus. All diagnosed cases are isolated and in treatment, following the protocols set by Salut. In addition, they have also reported that there are 119 residences with people who have covid-19. On Monday 23, the department confirmed that there were 212 confirmed cases and 70 residences affected. ]
 

graz_lag

Major Contributor
Joined
Oct 13, 2018
Messages
1,296
Likes
1,455
Location
Le Mans, France
This.
It is the response that will determine the death rate; not the virulence of the disease, not it's exponential growth, no matter to what power that growth is.
A recent example of dealing with a virus in another species can be seen in the measures taken against Newcastle's disease that effects chickens.
https://www.merckvetmanual.com/poul...virus-infections/newcastle-disease-in-poultry
https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/ahfss/Animal_Health/newcastle_disease_info.html

While afaik the Chinese didn't cull the Covid-10 infected population,;) they did quickly lock down the center of the epidemic and attempted to contain it, with if we are to believe the reports, with considerable success.
The problem here in Spain and Italy and the UK is the they didn't lock down early and they didn't test. This is what is going to cause a higher than necessary death rate in the USA and has in Spain and Italy and from what I've read, other countries.
That's indeed, no law of nature dictated the current pandemic and outcome.
Much of them are directly attributable to one dreadful fact: that narcissistic imbeciles - who may think they can sugarcoat the Covid-19 virus, spending the first 2 months of this crisis lying and insisting it didn't exist, that "15 cases would soon be down to around zero", undermining whatever public health effort the professionals can mount, as they try to work around the men they serve, are a calamity for the poor people who put them in power.
 
Last edited:

maty

Major Contributor
Joined
Dec 12, 2017
Messages
3,846
Likes
2,328
Location
Tarragona (Spain)
Coronavirus patients in California’s ICU beds double overnight
https://www.latimes.com/california/...patients-california-icu-beds-double-overnight

[ The number of coronavirus patients in California’s intensive care unit beds doubled overnight, rising from 200 on Friday to 410 on Saturday, Gov. Gavin Newsom said.

The number of hospitalized patients testing positive for the coronavirus that causes the respiratory disease known as COVID-19 rose by 38.6% — from 746 on Friday to 1,034 on Saturday, Newsom said. ]

[ A Los Angeles Times data analysis found that California has 7,200 intensive-care beds across more than 365 hospitals. In total, the state has more than 70,000 beds. The Times data analysis shows roughly one intensive-care bed for every 5,500 people in California.

About half of California’s total intensive-care beds — 3,700 — are in the five-county area around Los Angeles, according to data from 2018, the most recent available. In the nine-county Bay Area, there are roughly 1,400 ICU beds for a population of 7.6 million people. ]
 
Joined
Nov 9, 2019
Messages
28
Likes
12
I found one of Maty's recent posts interesting, the one on social differences. Here too, and perhaps not surprisingly, something similar seems to be the case, even though these are only proxy data. As I mentioned before, the vast majority of Dutch corona patients on the intensive care are obese. Obesity is characteristic of the poor, so I would suspect the majority of patients to be from the poorer strata of society. Future research will be needed to validate this working hypothesis, but it may well be true.
Given greater social inequality in the US, would similar social differences also show in the US?
If this is true, the US is going to be hit really hard.
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/29-most-obese-countries-in-the-world.html
 

amirm

Founder/Admin
Staff Member
CFO (Chief Fun Officer)
Joined
Feb 13, 2016
Messages
28,203
Likes
72,781
Location
Seattle Area
I'm not sure if I should take this comment seriously or not.
Probably best to assume you're joking.
You better not. I am very serious. You seem to not appreciate the difference between two viruses, one of which has a vaccine against it.
 

MediumRare

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Sep 17, 2019
Messages
1,061
Likes
1,124
Location
Chicago
US growth by state. http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#covid-us-norm

Note these items in particular:
1. Jump in Texas to above Italy's baseline.
2. Illinois' daily figures are not updated; Today we jumped 32% in cases and 38% in fatalities, including the first reported death of an infant.
3. New York's daily figures are not updated; Today the fatalities jumped 33%+, to 49/million, five days behind Spain and six behind Italy.
3. Seven US states with a combined population over 100 million are trending considerably worse than Italy.
 
Last edited:

Shadrach

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 24, 2019
Messages
413
Likes
577
You better not. I am very serious. You seem to not appreciate the difference between two viruses, one of which has a vaccine against it.
There are a range of vaccines for the common flu virus. Each year the virologists pick a vaccine that they believe will work best for the virus mutation. So no, one doesn't have a vaccine against it. It's a best fit scenario with differing levels of success for various mutations.
 

Xulonn

Major Contributor
Forum Donor
Joined
Jun 27, 2018
Messages
1,295
Likes
3,424
Location
Boquete, Chiriqui, Panama
As I mentioned before, the vast majority of Dutch corona patients on the intensive care are obese. Obesity is characteristic of the poor, so I would suspect the majority of patients to be from the poorer strata of society. Future research will be needed to validate this working hypothesis, but it may well be true.
Obesity is a greater problem among people who are less educated or earn lower incomes. LINK
It will be interesting to view the findings of scientists and statisticians who will analyze this pandemic when it subsides. Preliminary papers are already being published, but only peer-reviewed papers with confirming research will truly be useful. I believe that there will an extremely complex matrix of correlations found with uncontrollable variables such as geography, environmental conditions, culture and political systems making it even more difficult to analyze.

It will also be interesting to see if any of the (our?) speculations based on observations during the pandemic hold up under future objective scrutiny.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom