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What you need to know about the virus in China "2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

Putter

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At the risk of being too political, I'm reminded of Nixon's response to NYC when they had the financial crisis in the 1970's of 'Drop Dead'. This may become literally true if ventilators aren't sent where needed.

I look at this as a war where you deploy your troops to where they're needed. In this case the 'troops' are ventilators and the front lines are in NYC.
 
OP
A

andymok

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Thread Starter #2,162
Given how weak our govt right now, one thing our doctors, among them are also expert advisors to the govt, did so well, was taking up the role, actively speaking to and preparing the public on the situation, and for the possible upcoming measures needed, in effect they're staging and pressing the govt as well.

FB_IMG_1585199358709.jpg
 

maty

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Los test rápidos de coronavirus comprados en China no funcionan bien
[Spanish] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03...onavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html

Fast coronavirus tests purchased in China don't work well
https://www.translatetheweb.com/?ref=TVert&from=&to=en&a=https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/los-test-rapidos-de-coronavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html

[ The fast tests, manufactured by the Chinese company Bioeasy, based in Shenzhen, one of the technological poles of the Asian country – also home to Huawei – have a sensitivity of 30%, when it should be more than 80%, these sources point out. One of the microbiologists who has analyzed the Chinese test says, "It doesn't make sense to use these tests."

The conclusion of the experts who have evaluated these detection kits is that the current test, the PCR, will have to continue to be used. This is communicated to the Carlos III Institute of Health, under the Ministry of Health... ]
 

Frank Dernie

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Los test rápidos de coronavirus comprados en China no funcionan bien
[Spanish] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03...onavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html

Fast coronavirus tests purchased in China don't work well
https://www.translatetheweb.com/?ref=TVert&from=&to=en&a=https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/los-test-rapidos-de-coronavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html

[ The fast tests, manufactured by the Chinese company Bioeasy, based in Shenzhen, one of the technological poles of the Asian country – also home to Huawei – have a sensitivity of 30%, when it should be more than 80%, these sources point out. One of the microbiologists who has analyzed the Chinese test says, "It doesn't make sense to use these tests."

The conclusion of the experts who have evaluated these detection kits is that the current test, the PCR, will have to continue to be used. This is communicated to the Carlos III Institute of Health, under the Ministry of Health... ]
This is a great shame and very disappointing.
 

Willem

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Since I am a historian who has written on past epidemics, I like a historical perspective. Here is a well written introduction:https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200325-covid-19-the-history-of-pandemics
And a good podcast:
Those of us who have worked on past epidemics know that they are often the product of a few factors: proximity to animals, climate change, high population density, and easy travel and high levels of connectivity. All these have increased in recent history, hence we had it coming (as many experts warned).
Personally, I find this the best book on the Black Death, its origins and the social and economic consequecies:
Bruce M. S. Campbell, The Great Transition: climate, disease and society in the late-medieval world, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. 2016
 

RayDunzl

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Seoul, South Korea...



Shibuya Dogenzaka - Japan

 
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Prana Ferox

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Tomorrow night the US will overtake Italy to have the 2nd highest number of cases, possibly even China to be #1.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#w

Several states will have extremely high rates per million, either already or on track to exceed Italy.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#un
The US has a lot more people. The US is currently at 207 detected cases per mil, which is bad, but also around South Korea, Sweden, and Slovenia. In terms of case per mil detected, Switzerland, Italy and Spain are at 1260, 1230, 1260.

In the US, NY numbers are high but this is focused around NYC specifically. New Jersey is high but that's NYC suburbs.

US daily testing increased from ~64k on 3/24 to 75k on 3/25. This number needs to go up a lot more.
 

maty

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How coronavirus took just weeks to overwhelm Spain
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/how-spain-sat-on-its-hands-as-coronavirus-took-hold

[ In 18 days a few hundred cases escalated to more fatalities than China...]

When all this happens, the top managers must be judged, starting with Pedro Sánchez (President of Spanish Government) and the regional presidents, since they were notified by WHO and an EU Health organism, despite which they did not buy protective material and/or order their national production.
 
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Currently we seem to be at about the same death rate as schizophrenia...
What part of "exponential" don't you understand?
Do the maths, the fatality rate is widely variable, dependent on quality of care and statistical problems, but in the order of 1% to 10%.
So a substantial fraction of the world population (7.5 billion) with the disease will mean deaths in the order of 100 million(s).
The 1918 flu pandemic showed this is quite plausible.

Someone has already pointed out that your post is specious because corona virus is infectious.
The only reason I bothered to reply too is that it raises the crucial question.
What fraction of the population is likely to catch Covid19 if no preventative steps are taken?
The virus is new so there's no natural immunity from previous exposure.
Any one have any data?

Best wishes
David
 

maty

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La ingeniosa 'app' de Singapur para frenar el coronavirus que España debería crear ya
[Spanish] https://www.elconfidencial.com/tecn...-app-coronavirus-covid19-smartphones_2516539/

Singapore's ingenious 'app' to curb the coronavirus Spain should already create
https://www.translatetheweb.com/?ref=TVert&from=&to=en&a=https://www.elconfidencial.com/tecnologia/2020-03-26/singapur-app-coronavirus-covid19-smartphones_2516539/

[ Germany, Italy, South Korea, China and also Spain. Almost all countries have launched 'apps' to try to control the pandemic, but Singapore's is the most advanced... ]
 

Shadrach

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I realise I'm in a small minority, but....
I see a rather different problem regarding our approach to this virus.
Why are we so concerned about it?
It does seem likely it will kill quite a lot of people. There are approximately 7.8 billion of us! We are hardly an endangered species.
If a billion of us died tomorrow would the world be a better or worse place for us and every other species on the planet?
The planet is massively overpopulated by humans and as a species we are arguably the most destructive.
Given we can't seem to manage our population it looks like nature might have a go at doing it for us.
It seems from the less hysterical reports that the virus is particularly dangerous for those with other health problems, heart conditions, lung problems etc. In Italy for example which has a large elderly population the death statistics are concentrated in this group.
Nobody lives forever. We are all meant to die.
While starvation and poverty kills millions every year, which we could greatly reduce with better wealth distribution, nobody seems to care enough to do very much about it because those with the power to make the changes don't care because it isn't happening to them.
The virus is different. It isn't just picking off the poor and disadvantaged.
Our species it seems, have become convinced through centuries of indoctrination that we are somehow special. Nature doesn't see it like that it seems.
Somewhere buried under all this is the problem of the view that human life is somehow sacred. That's what religion and arrogance does for you.
If the virus gets me and I die then I didn't pass the fitness test. Life will go on without me.
I believe this is called evolution at it's basic level.
 

Veri

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Somewhere buried under all this is the problem of the view that human life is somehow sacred. That's what religion and arrogance does for you.
If the virus gets me and I die then I didn't pass the fitness test. Life will go on without me.
I believe this is called evolution at it's basic level.
This isn't natural selection or nature "taking revenge" or anything symbolic like that though.



It's just gross neglect. SARS/Corona viruses were known for a longer time, and signalled as a ticking time bomb.
yet here we are.
 

Soniclife

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The US has a lot more people. The US is currently at 207 detected cases per mil, which is bad, but also around South Korea, Sweden, and Slovenia. In terms of case per mil detected, Switzerland, Italy and Spain are at 1260, 1230, 1260.
At the current 35% growth rate the US is on it will catch up with where Italy is now in about 6 days.
 

Shadrach

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What part of "exponential" don't you understand?
Do the maths, the fatality rate is widely variable, dependent on quality of care and statistical problems, but in the order of 1% to 10%.
So a substantial fraction of the world population (7.5 billion) with the disease will mean deaths in the order of 100 million(s).
The 1918 flu pandemic showed this is quite plausible.

Someone has already pointed out that your post is specious because corona virus is infectious.
The only reason I bothered to reply too is that it raises the crucial question.
What fraction of the population is likely to catch Covid19 if no preventative steps are taken?
The virus is new so there's no natural immunity from previous exposure.
Any one have any data?

Best wishes
David
I have a degree in mathematics and physics so the, are you stupid, or what, approach isn't really going to bother me.
If your imaginary figure of 100 millions turns out to be accurate you can wake me up to tell me the news.
To the best of my knowledge every contagious virus exhibits exponential growth.
I can't help noticing we as a species are still here after the 1918 flu pandemic.
I wouldn't worry if I was you.
 

Thomas savage

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I realise I'm in a small minority, but....
I see a rather different problem regarding our approach to this virus.
Why are we so concerned about it?
It does seem likely it will kill quite a lot of people. There are approximately 7.8 billion of us! We are hardly an endangered species.
If a billion of us died tomorrow would the world be a better or worse place for us and every other species on the planet?
The planet is massively overpopulated by humans and as a species we are arguably the most destructive.
Given we can't seem to manage our population it looks like nature might have a go at doing it for us.
It seems from the less hysterical reports that the virus is particularly dangerous for those with other health problems, heart conditions, lung problems etc. In Italy for example which has a large elderly population the death statistics are concentrated in this group.
Nobody lives forever. We are all meant to die.
While starvation and poverty kills millions every year, which we could greatly reduce with better wealth distribution, nobody seems to care enough to do very much about it because those with the power to make the changes don't care because it isn't happening to them.
The virus is different. It isn't just picking off the poor and disadvantaged.
Our species it seems, have become convinced through centuries of indoctrination that we are somehow special. Nature doesn't see it like that it seems.
Somewhere buried under all this is the problem of the view that human life is somehow sacred. That's what religion and arrogance does for you.
If the virus gets me and I die then I didn't pass the fitness test. Life will go on without me.
I believe this is called evolution at it's basic level.
That's ok if you don't have any feelings for anybody and no empathy for those that do .

The value of human life is in the love of others , take that away and why bother. I'm sure if it was vital to our survival evolution would of eliminated human feeling by now. The fact it remains and is so powerful must inform us it's vital for our survival and progression as a species on earth .
 

maty

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https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/2...a-italia-ultimas-noticias-hoy-en-directo.html

[ 11:50 CORONAVIRUSES IN SPAIN | Spain has registered this Thursday 56,188 cases of coronavirus, which means 8,578 more than on Wednesday, according to the latest data provided by the Ministry of Health.

11:54 SPAIN | A total of 4,089 people have died (655 more), 3,679 have needed to be admitted to the ICU (513 more) and 7,015 have been cured (1,648 more).

11:58 The Community of Madrid continues to be the most affected by coronavirus in Spain, with 17,166 positives, 2,090 deaths, 1,221 in the ICU and 3,882 discharged. It is followed by Catalonia, which in recent days is experiencing a large increase: 11,592 cases, 672 deaths, 1,021 in intensive care and 1,697 have been cured. ]


Spain

New infected: 18%
New deaths: 19%
New ICU: 16%
 

Shadrach

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This isn't natural selection or nature "taking revenge" or anything symbolic like that though.



It's just gross neglect. SARS/Corona viruses were known for a longer time, and signalled as a ticking time bomb.
yet here we are.
I don't wish to appear rude so I'll respond briefly.
We know about many other health problems that kill hundreds of thousands but we haven't reacted to them in the current manner.
If as some are suggesting, that this has been a virus produced and let loose by human stupidity then perhaps it's time to learn not to meddle with such things.
With a bit of luck and if the virus kills enough of us, we may even consider investing in our health services instead of our military, or gambling on stock markets.
I have no idea how accurate this clock type display is, but it does illustrate the point that we are breeding faster then we are dying. This is unsustainable in the long term.
When the births and deaths on the clock match, we are in with a shout as the cricket saying goes.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
 
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