What does it take to succesfully transition to a green energy economy?

[Devnull]

Pfft. I don't know why people post this outdated shite on their own behalf. How do batteries get filled I wonder? But these aren't serious arguments. Although US exceptionalism did make something of a narrative comeback.

What exactly is outdated?

 

[pablolie]

I'm sorry, but there's just no logic to that argument. "We're bigger so that doesn't work for us"? Like yes, the US is a bigger country with a larger population, resulting in higher power consumption. You need proportionally more power plants and infrastructure for a higher total consumption - how absolutely unsurprising.

Just subdivide this problem and break it down in your mind - if it works for a whole country, why wouldn't it work for one single small to medium sized US provider? If it works for a single provider, why wouldn't it work for the next? And then another one? You get the idea.

In this specific and random example of Denmark, nothing is special about them (no offense to my Danish friends). They probably have more coastline than the average country, which makes wind power more attractive for them to build than solar or hydro. That's pretty much it. It's not some unicorn case like Norway, where 99% of generation is hydro - very few countries have that luxury.

California is -as of 2023- ~70% powered by renewable energy sources. It works. The math is entirely defensible (while PG&E is not :-D).

 

[RandomEar]

Such calculations are often biased. I am not convinced that's the case.

The power companies building them aren't biased. They calculated it because they would be burning money if they were wrong - which they can't afford. So I don't understand that argument at all.

Clearly you don't value birds. :-D

All the recent studies I have seen don't support that wind power is a major danger to birds. Most are killed by poisoning, domestic animals (mostly cats), collisions with cars and trucks as well as windows. Those are orders of magnitude more dangerous to birds and already exist today.

 

[Axo1989]

Such calculations are often biased. I am not convinced that's the case. Sure, the sunlight (yeay it's free) hits your solar panel and you get instant electricity flow. But producing thse panels wasn't cheap at all. On a $/MW scale in production, other stuff beats solar. I am not at all bashing it, I do cover a significant part of me needs with solar. And yeah, with all the roofs we have on the planet, it's silly to not use them for energy production when the surface area is there and there to be used.

Policy documents can be biased yes, but calculating system levelised cost of energy is conventional and straightforward. Here we have CSIRO and AEMO's annual GenCost reporting (that's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and Australian Energy Market Operator) for example.

It's not just AI, that's just the -mostly misused- term for a new computing and data center "paradigm shift". I kinda regurgitated a little food using that term, but it is approprate. The new model to deal with big data isn't going away, the new data centers will not get shut down and tumbleweeds will not be blown about those misinvestments. Let's keep financial markets and tech infrastructure separate... the internet didn't break down and disappear when the 2000 bubble blew up.

Orderly rollout of data infrastructure would incorporate renewables as part of a given county's long-term energy strategy. I'm referring to the accelerated pace we are seeing currently, hence on-site gas turbines. As to whether the chatbot data centres become stranded capital, we'll see. It may depend how flexible they are.

The future is most likely nuclear fission (current) and fusion (future). You mentioned space, and that's key for many applications.

Not here, new fission is the most expensive option (apart from CCS coal). I expect that holds elsewhere. Decommissioning working nuclear plants was another story, Germany for example has suffered from their Russian gas strategy already (and US gas strategy currently).

I also want to note that I find it's a huge mistake to align energy production with political affiliation. It's about common sense. "Green" isn't a hallmark of liberal thought, and I know many conservatives that drive EVs. Likewise, in several places, fossile stuff is an absolute economic necessity. Shades of gray stuff, so let's cut through the political crap and simply do what makes sense.

I couldn't agree more.

 

[pablolie]

The power companies building them aren't biased. They calculated it because they would be burning money if they were wrong - which they can't afford. So I don't understand that argument at all.


All the recent studies I have seen don't support that wind power is a major danger to birds. Most are killed by poisoning, domestic animals (mostly cats), collisions with cars and trucks as well as windows. Those are orders of magnitude more dangerous to birds and already exist today.

Well, that benchmark is called LCOE, and it has pros and cons (what doesn't). You are right that in the *current* LCOE (stands for levelled cost of electricity), renewable sources come ahead. But like I said before, some if it also has politics influencing cost justifications. And please don't misunderstand me, I am not oil hawk.

But the LCOE model disadvantages nuclear because of somewhat inflated upfront costs these days. (including legal approvals, which are political overhead to a large degree).. but when it comes to that, I am just parroting stuff I heard in discussions and presentations about data center power strategies, so I am not trying to claim expertise.

I do fully agree that renewable energy sources are the future. Always have. One of my most fun projects in university was calculating the optimal orientations of solar panels across Germany's microclimate zones (there are 11 if I remember correctly).

 

[levimax]

California is -as of 2023- ~70% powered by renewable energy sources. It works. The math is entirely defensible (while PG&E is not :-D).

California is not a model to be followed in my opinion. I am paying ~$0.60 per KwH (depending on time of day and season) so if renewables are cheaper someone is stealing a lot of money or mismanaging things or most likely both.

 

[EJ3]

Dying again is quite the trick. I'm only expecting to do it once, myself. Your post is sarcasm, of course? I'm second-guessing after @RandomEar's posts now.

As in a new time frame, they were dying before, now new ones will be dying unless they can figure the sonics of disrupted communications for them. (Whales particularly).

I'm sorry, but there's just no logic to that argument. "We're bigger so that doesn't work for us"? Like yes, the US is a bigger country with a larger population, resulting in higher power consumption. You need proportionally more power plants and infrastructure for a higher total consumption - how absolutely unsurprising.

Just subdivide this problem and break it down in your mind - if it works for a whole country, why wouldn't it work for one single small to medium sized US provider? If it works for a single provider, why wouldn't it work for the next? And then another one? You get the idea.

In this specific and random example of Denmark, nothing is special about them (no offense to my Danish friends). They probably have more coastline than the average country, which makes wind power more attractive for them to build than solar or hydro. That's pretty much it. It's not some unicorn case like Norway, where 99% of generation is hydro - very few countries have that luxury.

You are joking, aren't you?
I hope so.
Just as North Dakota has different needs from Florida.
Personally, I on a river, in a forest.
Solar to me is for individual homes. OFF THE GRID ENTIRELY. Fields of solar panels and windmills to destroy the forest. Yep, a great idea.
I am still somewhat on the grid, this home is at the end of the electrical power grid. And can get a possible 30 amps of power (2 120V 15 amp circuits).
I see that many are ignorant about the various workings of places that are not cities and where the nearest small town is a 45 minute drive.

Yes: bigger, spread out (29 or 32 people per square kilometer: depending on who you believe, makes it uneconomical to bring power here at all.

Do you go to the store to buy food? Was the food processed in a packaging plant & driven to the store?
Or go over down to the farm 1/2 kilometer away to get it?
Do you hunt for your food?
Grow it yourself for you and your family?
Barter with chicken farmers for eggs because you have green onions to trade for them?
Do you go fishing to get fish?
Yes, I put an average of 7808 miles (12,553 KM.) on my truck, doing farm things & food related things, mostly. Since the model year 2004.
And yes, I use small boats with small engines to get around in the river.
And, a couple times a year, it floods.
Maybe, when small nuclear power plants, they'll put one within feasible access.
Sorry: but if you are not living almost or totally off the grid...:
Living with nature:

"Greener than thee" ZEALOTS cause me to LMAO.
Thanks for the hilarity.

 

[EJ3]

I wish. Geologists predict return of ice age in distant future (for us.). May need CO2 and methane to avoid extinction in future. Humans evolved in a much warmer climate. Unfortunately, climate science has become an ideology or even religion. I try to keep open mind.

When we were in high school (for me 1971-1975 in the USA) they (those that claimed to be experts, whoever they may be) where saying that before 2000, we would be under a layer of ICE. I guess they made a lot of money from that SCAM.
Since experts with PHD's (I have 2 P[ost] H[ole] D[igger's] [but I know how to use them]) those are usually the they that tell us these things:
we always MUST believe them (and never use and believe our own observations, as we cannot possibly be correct [such it doesn't pass the sniff test for not being a scam BS]).

 

[Axo1989]

As in a new time frame, they were dying before, now new ones will be dying unless they can figure the sonics of disrupted communications for them. (Whales particularly).

Ok then. Humour-challenged, and some sort of retro-survivalist zealot? Rhetorical question of course. Disrupted communications from windmills* but not from ships? But I do like the bison photo. And I think we both live on an island (although you can't drive to mine).

*not actually mills, but the Don Quixote allusion is too tempting

 

[Titurel]

Ok then. Humour-challenged, and some sort of retro-survivalist zealot? Rhetorical question of course. Disrupted communications from windmills* but not from ships? But I do like the bison photo. And I think we both live on an island (although you can't drive to mine).

*not actually mills, but the Don Quixote allusion is too tempting

I notice you're in Australia. I was wondering (as long as we're all taking a shot at Eco-humour), how that dung-beetle thing is going for you guys? It made me wonder if maybe we could find a good critter for naturally disposing of used wind-turbine blades.

 

[EJ3]

Clearly you don't value birds. :-D

Now come on: you know that everyone loves streamers.
It's easy pickin's once they hit the ground & break their neck.

 

[Axo1989]

I notice you're in Australia. I was wondering (as long as we're all taking a shot at Eco-humour), how that dung-beetle thing is going for you guys? It made me wonder if maybe we could find a good critter for naturally disposing of used wind-turbine blades.

Hadn't thought about that for a while actually. I see some of the locals/regional project/program websites are dormant now, but it's still up on CSIRO. And there's some millions of program funding ongoing so I expect it's a continuing success. Anecdotally there are less blowflies in the bush than I remember from my youth—that's hardly a survey so I wonder what the program metrics and field data collection methods are? From that link (2023 report 179pp):

Importation of four novel dung beetle species to fill the late winter-early spring activity gap in southern Australia (only three reared and released from quarantine). Another 14 species have been added to the Live Animal Import list for future importation.

The curated data from the monitoring program is one of the largest databases of dung beetle presence and abundance in the world. This is important information for producers that will allow them to understand which dung beetle species are present/active when and where, to be able to tailor their land management practices to relevant species.

Rural stuff isn't my field though, I'm involved in native vegetation and riparian/waterway surveys.

 

[JustJones]

OMG we're all gonna freeze!!

What did 1970’s climate science actually say?

This post is an updated intermediate rebuttal to the myth 'scientists wrongly predicted an ice age in the 1970s so can't be trusted now'. It was written by Margaret Orr as part of the George Mason University class Understanding and Responding to Climate Misinformation, combining climate science...

skepticalscience.com

 

[Axo1989]

OMG we're all gonna freeze!!

What did 1970’s climate science actually say?

This post is an updated intermediate rebuttal to the myth 'scientists wrongly predicted an ice age in the 1970s so can't be trusted now'. It was written by Margaret Orr as part of the George Mason University class Understanding and Responding to Climate Misinformation, combining climate science...

skepticalscience.com

Gawd. The climate change ice age myth is an enduring bit of ratbaggery. A old RWNJ neighbour tells me there are websites he swears by that collate these and similar prediction myths and present them as factual.

 

[Alice of Old Vincennes]

Gawd. The climate change ice age myth is an enduring bit of ratbaggery. A old RWNJ neighbour tells me there are websites he swears by that collate these and similar prediction myths and present them as factual.

Green energy can’t pass elementary school math. Mandates “generate” sky high rates.

 

[pablolie]

California is not a model to be followed in my opinion. I am paying ~$0.60 per KwH (depending on time of day and season) so if renewables are cheaper someone is stealing a lot of money or mismanaging things or most likely both.

Note the second part of my statement. Many of us here have alternative sources partly motivated because we can't trust the state sponsored one.

 

[Somafunk]

Green energy can’t pass elementary school math. Mandates “generate” sky high rates.

Whereabouts in the world do you reside/call home as that may be a feature into your distrust of renewables?

 

[pablolie]

Now come on: you know that everyone loves streamers.
It's easy pickin's once they hit the ground & break their neck.

Please everybody note the big smiley, that line was a joke, please.

 

[Axo1989]

Green energy can’t pass elementary school math. Mandates “generate” sky high rates.

Which has ... nothing ... to do with my post you quote, or the post I replied to?

 

[mcochris]

California is -as of 2023- ~70% powered by renewable energy sources. It works. The math is entirely defensible (while PG&E is not :-D).

Not 24x7. In 2024, the figure was 52% peak renewable output.

Renewables supply 5-10% output during their non-peak.

Traditional power sources still have to be available when renewable output lowers.

But its a step in the right direction and I hope we continue to build renewables, storage, and nuclear.

Sources:

https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/121625-california-got-a-record-523-of-power-from-renewables-in-2024-report

2024 Total System Electric Generation

www.energy.ca.gov

California Says 66% of Its Power Is Now From Renewable or Zero-Carbon Sources

'Clean energy' provided 100 percent of the state’s power for part of the day on nearly every day so far this year.

singularityhub.com