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Thinking about retirement?

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RexrothPigeon said:
No, a Ponzi scheme requires a fraudulent claim of profit in a nonexistent enterprise, and the new investors funds are paid out to early investors under the guise of that profit. You may think SS is unfair, that's your prerogative of course, but it's not a Ponzi (unless you consider stuff like child-rearing to also be a Ponzi haha: Parents take care of kids for nothing? The whole reproduction of the species is predicated on belief that future generations will continue this financially asinine pattern?)
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Sure, not the text book definition of a Ponzi scheme.

But Ponzi scheme nevertheless. . .and a Ponzi scheme is never sustainable.

Not sure how there is any relationship with child rearing.
 
RexrothPigeon said:
by your reasoning, child rearing is also a ponzi. if you think it through you can figure it out :)
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I really don't understand where you are drawing this conclusion "parents take care of their children for nothing" as a Ponzi scheme.

But I will try to entertain the idea and give it an explanation. . .I take care of my children because they are my flesh and blood, they are my legacy, they carry my name, I actually love them.

My social security contributions pays for someone else's social security benefits because it was an ill thought out and legalized Ponzi scheme. And as a working US Citizen, you have no choice but to pay into this system that has a very likelihood of (a) insolvency or (b) drastic benefit cuts in the future, maybe even near future. . . because Ponzi schemes are never sustainable.
 
PristineSound said:
The responsible financial planners/advisors who have clients retiring 10 years or more from now are planning it without social security.

I turn 48 in 3 more days, there is the possibility that social security may (a) go bankrupt or (b) significant reduction in benefits by the time I retire. Right now, I am planning to retire without social security in mind, if it is still in tact when I retire, it will just be bonus money for me.

Without getting into politics, the execution and implementation of social security is a disaster, I can't see any reform that would be just and fair for everyone aside from privatization at this point.
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So why pay -at least in California- nearly 50% of taxes? This is not about financial planning incompetence, this is about getting a pathetic deal from incompetent government planning, and the party colors don't make a difference. If you want me to invest in my future, one good option would be to opt out of social security payments (26k a year) to invest in an effing 401k, but prevent us from ever touching that. Do the math. Almost everybody would end up with a 1M+ account if you do the math. The system is pathetically broken, wherever you look.

My several messages about this topic are merely "at least be honest about it" stuff and give me an option. Don't call it "social security" if it doesn't serve that purpose. Just like don't call it "my children's college saving account" if you spend it on drugs and hookers without their permission.
 
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PristineSound said:
I take care of my children because they are my flesh and blood, they are my legacy, they carry my name, I actually love them.
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Even if they didn't carry your name and you didn't love them you would be forced to do so. Child-rearing is theft!

/s
 
RexrothPigeon said:
Even if they didn't carry your name and you didn't love them you would be forced to do so. Child-rearing is theft!

/s
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If you didn't love your children, why would you have children? Well at least for me, it was intentionally planned, I can't speak for others. But nevertheless, even for any other circumstances, I would think (or desperately hope) that all people who have kids love their kids.
 
pablolie said:
So why pay -at least in California- nearly 50% of taxes? This is not about financial planning incompetence, this is about getting a pathetic deal from incompetent government planning, and the party colors don't make a difference. If you want me to invest in my future, one good option would be to opt out of social security payments (26k a year) to invest in an effing 401k, but prevent us from ever touching that. Do the math. Almost everybody would end up with a 1M+ account if you do the math. The system is pathetically broken, wherever you look.

My several messages about this topic are merely "at least be honest about it" stuff and give me an option. Don't call it "social security" if it doesn't serve that purpose. Just like don't call it "my children's college saving account" if you spend it on drugs and hookers without their permission.
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I was referring to a financial planner, not the governments planning.

But I am with you 100%, most government are fairly incompetent. . .there are few exceptions, like the Singaporean government.

What you described is essentially privatization of SS, which I am 100% for, but because it's a Ponzi scheme 90 years running, there is no way to privatized it and everyone still gets what they already have paid in as those earlier contributions went to payments for the generation of retirees before you.
 
RexrothPigeon said:
yes, as I'm sure you and I also do for those unfortunate elderly people who, without the flimsy safety net of Social Security, would be literally destitute
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1) I do feel bad for the seniors who are living in destitute, like the two stories that I shared earlier, I can't imagine having to work for $15/$16 an hour just to get by at 81 or 82 years old. However, feeling bad for these unfortunate seniors does not mean I want to pay for their retirement with my money that is promised for my retirement into a system that has a likelihood of going insolvent.

2) There are something called self accountability. Sure there are those who are in an unfortunate position for no doings of their own, such as disability/accidents and there are those who did everything right and worked hard, but life circumstances happened.

But there are many who don't have enough for retirement because they didn't saved enough, didn't invest or made bad investments or didn't made enough tough but good decisions. Didn't plan accordingly. Didn't want to push themselves. Etc, etc, etc. The list goes on and on.

3) I'm not saying there shouldn't be a government mandated retirement fund. I recognized that not everyone has the self discipline, financial education, planning abilities to save for their retirement and the government should force these people to save for their retirement.

I am saying the current social security is a Ponzi scheme and because it's a Ponzi scheme it can never ever be sustainable, especially with falling birth rates around the world. Social Security should of never been a Ponzi scheme, it should of been a self funded plan of the likes of Chile, Singapore and Australia.
 
PristineSound said:
If you didn't love your children, why would you have children? Well at least for me, it was intentionally planned, I can't speak for others. But nevertheless, even for any other circumstances, I would think (or desperately hope) that all people who have kids love their kids.
Click to expand...
I left home at 14 because I was either going to be severely injured or killed. My best friends parents after the final stepfather beating leaving me unconscious and then running for my life from the stepfather shouting insults and threats as he chased me for ~300 feet before exhaustion said I should live with them for awhile and I did for over 6 months. To this day >age 60 I have internal injury damage that causes complications from being regularly assaulted by the stepfather and mother who enabled that and even requested it sometimes. She did her fair share of breaking broom handles over our shoulders and backs and yelling at us "Bastards' everyday for years. After leaving home I worked full time and went to school. Not a dime of social supports from the gov because the mother stated that I was welcome back in the home to excuse herself from legal issues and possible expenses for me not being in the home. Before I never returned home one day I telephoned the police, explained the matters clearly in simple proper English and she (The copper.) gave me a pep talk and said she made a note in a file and sent me on my way without even coming to investigate. So I knew I was in danger. The parents worked me very hard everyday within 15 minutes of the school bus dropping me off or I would get the belt if I exceeded the 15 minute deadline. I was forced to work till dark or later if required and was then expected to do studies and homework after dinner. Weekends was up at 6am and out the door working the farm till after dark again. I had a broken collar bone and then another time a broken tailbone and never went to the doctor and forced to do manual labor, push a wheelbarrow all day for days with loads of dirt, weed the gardens, mow 1.5 acres of lawn multiple times per week and all the trimming too, care for the farm animals and not whimper about the broken bones and totally denied any sort of sympathy for the internal grinding hunks of tailbone breakage or the broken collar bone protruding beneath my skin. Any emotions from me or facial expressions they disliked resulted in the belt. I was not allowed any sort of perceived negativity or even appear to possibly question anything or it was the belt. I worked the family farm always fearing the next beating and the stepfather was a well off fireman and the mother into geriatrics so they had lotsa money to toss around. I was commanded to never talk to the neighbors and that the neighbors hated us so no big loss. They bought a new Sea Ray expensive luxury boat, motorhome, cars, expensive everything and always daily made me feel guilty for them buying them as if they where for me and I should feel bad because I was so privileged with them. The reality for me was when I was regularly taken fishing with the stepfather to remote mountain lakes with no people for many miles around I was scared for my life everyday all day. The smell of him made me fearful and seeing him was worse. The boats, motorhome and all that stuff meant isolation for me and a possible additional assault event resulting in me being whipped with a large long leather horsewhip causing deep lacerations and lots of bleeding wherever the whip hit or his huge oak leaf belt or a old fashioned smack me or punch me senseless till unconscious. I had a very large male blond German shepherd, spent a lot of time with it and trained it for as many hours as I could steal and the dog considered me it's own and anything came near me like another animal and it was a near death experience if they where aggressive in any way (One known biting aggressive large dog came running at full speed out of the blue one day as we walked up a country road, ran up lips curled, teeth all showing, right up to us and as fast as I blinked my dog ripped off half it's face and left it on the road and never even looked back as we walked away.) It was a super bush dog always circling me and making sure nothing came near me. So... The stepfather instantly decided one day that the dog was not attentive to him and was too attentive to me and so he grabbed a 2x4 and beat the dog senseless all over it's body. The dog's personality was killed totally, was not interested in life or any activities after and just wanted to lay about and look solemn and be alone. The dog was permanently ruined forever after that. While all this was going on he would pick the lock(Toothpick in door knob hole.) on the bathroom door all the time for years and enter while I was showering and demand hot showers with me and back scrubs and anytime we where swimming in wilderness areas as he demanded we do he demanded skinny dipping/snorkeling and pulled off my shorts even as I refused and tried to stop him and he made me skinny dip. A full blown real bad guy. They openly and obviously considered me a inconvenience, a expense and a hassle. The mother before I worked from age 12 onward hated buying me clothes. It was always a issue and a hassle for her and she would often remind me "Of the time" months and even years before when she felt perceived inconvenience in regards to my clothing needs. So one day she said she knew a very good store and took me to a woman's stores for a new ski suit (With women's very obvious shaped hips showing when I wore them and ugly female coloration.) and so I got a job and bought all my clothing from that point of age 12 onward and when people/family visited I was ordered to shut up and not speak as she took full credit for my good taste in clothing and talked it up as if this was all on her superior child rearing skills. I could go on all night the stuff I had to endure but I won't. These people are the sorts that should be locked up and are not qualified to raise children. Not a molecule of love in their hearts. I have seen multiples of them in other families when I was growing up and they come from all socioeconomic families and all sorts of occupations of the parent(s). The same goes for good parents they come from all varieties too. It's total BS and never seems to end and there is always a supply of these people up and coming in the world. I worked for a electronics shop for 15 months in BC. A guy there only solder sucked TV PCBs and resoldered the PCBs because he had zero training. So I knew something was up and after about 13 months me and him had a talk and he told me why he was there and how. He and his brothers and sister where always abused. It was terrible. The father hated them and near killed them regularly. So at about age 8 his older brother and the kids sat and stood near the front door of the country house out in the wilderness and waited for the father to finish work, come home and open the front door. The older brother about age 9 was there with the 30-30 Winchester ready. The father opened the door and immediately received a bullet right in the chest and was dropped dead right there in a instant. The guy I worked with that was one of the younger brothers after lived in foster homes as all the children did and he exited out of that when he became of age of majority. So this guy was age ~38 when I worked with him and he had learning issues, loved his absurdly dumb so stupid but beautiful ex-wife to a fault no matter what she dreamed up next to sexually harass/hurt him (Including attempting to use me as a sex weapon to get under his skin but that never worked I simply walked away and left her standing alone like the idiot she is.) The locals made sure he always had a job and tried to keep him supported. Nice guy and I totally understood why the oldest brother put a round through the father.
 
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PristineSound said:
As for social security, as Bloomberg has correctly stated, the idea of taking a new group of people's money to give to an existing group of people, by mere definition is a Ponzi scheme.
Click to expand...
Even when the program was started in the 1930s it was never intended to be an "investment" program in the sense of a normal retirement or pension setup. It was intended as a social supplement program where current contributions paid current beneficiaries. Whether one comes out ahead or not after one starts collecting social security depends on how long one lives after retirement. Given my age and health, I'm unlikely to receive what I paid in. (In fact, since I still work part-time, I'm still paying in despite also collecting benefits.)

The current problem is that the number of workers paying in has shrunk compared to the number of recipients; there are currently slightly less than 3 workers paying in for each recipient. That ties to the long term trend of people having fewer kids these days compared to the past. Like anything in life, reality requires periodic adjustments to keep things running. Nothing created by humans stays the same forever!
 
Doodski said:
I left home at 14 because I was either going to be severely injured or killed. My best friends parents after the final stepfather beating leaving me unconscious and then running for my life from the stepfather shouting insults and threats as he chased me for ~300 feet before exhaustion said I should live with them for awhile and I did for over 6 months. To this day >age 60 I have internal injury damage that causes complications from being regularly assaulted by the stepfather and mother who enabled that and even requested it sometimes. She did her fair share of breaking broom handles over our shoulders and backs and yelling at us "Bastards' everyday for years. After leaving home I worked full time and went to school. Not a dime of social supports from the gov because the mother stated that I was welcome back in the home to excuse herself from legal issues and possible expenses for me not being in the home. Before I never returned home one day I telephoned the police, explained the matters clearly in simple proper English and she (The copper.) gave me a pep talk and said she made a note in a file and sent me on my way without even coming to investigate. So I knew I was in danger. The parents worked me very hard everyday within 15 minutes of the school bus dropping me off or I would get the belt if I exceeded the 15 minute deadline. I was forced to work till dark or later if required and was then expected to do studies and homework after dinner. Weekends was up at 6am and out the door working the farm till after dark again. I had a broken collar bone and then another time a broken tailbone and never went to the doctor and forced to do manual labor, push a wheelbarrow all day for days with loads of dirt, weed the gardens, mow 1.5 acres of lawn multiple times per week and all the trimming too, care for the farm animals and not whimper about the broken bones and totally denied any sort of sympathy for the internal grinding hunks of tailbone breakage or the broken collar bone protruding beneath my skin. Any emotions from me or facial expressions they disliked resulted in the belt. I was not allowed any sort of perceived negativity or even appear to possibly question anything or it was the belt. I worked the family farm always fearing the next beating and the stepfather was a well off fireman and the mother into geriatrics so they had lotsa money to toss around. I was commanded to never talk to the neighbors and that the neighbors hated us so no big loss. They bought a new Sea Ray expensive luxury boat, motorhome, cars, expensive everything and always daily made me feel guilty for them buying them as if they where for me and I should feel bad because I was so privileged with them. The reality for me was when I was regularly taken fishing with the stepfather to remote mountain lakes with no people for many miles around I was scared for my life everyday all day. The smell of him made me fearful and seeing him was worse. The boats, motorhome and all that stuff meant isolation for me and a possible additional assault event resulting in me being whipped with a large long leather horsewhip causing deep lacerations and lots of bleeding wherever the whip hit or his huge oak leaf belt or a old fashioned smack me or punch me senseless till unconscious. I had a very large male blond German shepherd, spent a lot of time with it and trained it for as many hours as I could steal and the dog considered me it's own and anything came near me like another animal and it was a near death experience if they where aggressive in any way (One know biting aggressive large dog came running at full speed out of the blue one day as we walked up a country road, ran up lips curled, teeth all showing, right up to us and as fast as I blinked my dog ripped off half it's face and left it on the road and never even looked back as we walked away.) It was a super bush dog always circling me and making sure nothing came near me. So... The stepfather instantly decided one day that the dog was not attentive to him and was too attentive to me and so he grabbed a 2x4 and beat the dog senseless all over it's body. The dog's personality was killed totally, was not interested in life or any activities after and just wanted to lay about and look solemn and be alone. The dog was permanently ruined forever after that. While all this was going on he would pick the lock(Toothpick in door knob hole.) on the bathroom door all the time for years and enter while I was showering and demand hot showers with me and back scrubs and anytime we where swimming in wilderness areas as he demanded we do he demanded skinny dipping/snorkeling and pulled off my shorts even as I refused and tried to stop him and he made me skinny dip. A full blown real bad guy. They openly and obviously considered me a inconvenience, a expense and a hassle. The mother before I worked from age 12 onward hated buying me clothes. It was always a issue and a hassle for her and she would often remind me "Of the time" months and even years before when she felt perceived inconvenience in regards to my clothing needs. So one day she said she knew a very good store and took me to a woman's stores for a new ski suit (With women's very obvious shaped hips showing when I wore them and ugly female coloration.) and so I got a job and bought all my clothing from that point of age 12 onward and when people/family visited I was ordered to shut up and not speak as she took full credit for my good taste in clothing and talked it up as if this was all on her superior child rearing skills. I could go on all night the stuff I had to endure but I won't. These people are the sorts that should be locked up and are not qualified to raise children. Not a molecule of love in their hearts. I have seen multiples of them in other families when I was growing up and they come from all socioeconomic families and all sorts of occupations of the parent(s). The same goes for good parents they come from all varieties too. It's total BS and never seems to end and there is always a supply of these people up and coming in the world. I worked for a electronics shop for 15 months in BC. A guy there only solder sucked TV PCBs and resoldered the PCBs because he had zero training. So I knew something was up and after about 13 months me and him had a talk and he told me why he was there and how. He and his brothers and sister where always abused. It was terrible. The father hated them and near killed them regularly. So at about age 8 his older brother and the kids sat and stood near the front door of the country house out in the wilderness and waited for the father to finish work, come home and open the front door. The older brother about age 9 was there with the 30-30 Winchester ready. The father opened the door and immediately received a bullet right in the chest and was dropped dead right there in a instant. The guy I worked with that was one of the younger brothers after lived in foster homes as all the children did and he exited out of that when he became of age of majority. So this guy was age ~38 when I worked with him and he had learning issues, loved his absurdly dumb so stupid but beautiful ex-wife to a fault no matter what she dreamed up next to sexually harass/hurt him (Including attempting to use me as a sex weapon to get under his skin but that never worked I simply walked away and left her standing alone like the idiot she is.) The locals made sure he always had a job and tried to keep him supported. Nice guy and I totally understood why the oldest brother put a round through him.
Click to expand...
I am sorry to hear about your story.

Your circumstances absolutely should have government run, non Ponzi scheme, social safety net for protection, sorry that your government failed you. You are the people who I referred to who did nothing wrong, it was a series of bad life circumstances.
 
mlsstl said:
Even when the program was started in the 1930s it was never intended to be an "investment" program in the sense of a normal retirement or pension setup. It was intended as a social supplement program where current contributions paid current beneficiaries. Whether one comes out ahead or not after one starts collecting social security depends on how long one lives after retirement. Given my age and health, I'm unlikely to receive what I paid in. (In fact, since I still work part-time, I'm still paying in despite also collecting benefits.)

The current problem is that the number of workers paying in has shrunk compared to the number of recipients; there are currently slightly less than 3 workers paying in for each recipient. That ties to the long term trend of people having fewer kids these days compared to the past. Like anything in life, reality requires periodic adjustments to keep things running. Nothing created by humans stays the same forever!
Click to expand...
And that is why social security should have been a fully, self funded plan.

If it was a fully, self funded plan, no one will get shafted. If you don't use it all, you can pass it on to your children or donate it to charity or whatever. If you use more than your portfolio can sustain, you are not screwing the retirement of the generations after you.

Like you said, there aren't enough people paying into SS today, because of declining birth rates and it's a catastrophe in the waiting. Time has changed and we have to change with it. If SS was a fully, self funded plan from the get go, it would have been a simple flip the switch to turn it into an private investment plan, and it could potentially even become one of the main retirement incomes.

Alas, my generation and the ones after are screwed. So please enjoy my money for as long as you can, for I have no one's money to enjoy.
 
Reading through this, and thinking a bit, as one who has seen transition of systems after a "failed state" in Poland, I can say:

1. All "social" ideas will become obsolete with time, because the world is changing, and with it, society itself.
2. Old, but still valid: Can you count? Count on yourself.

Any system promising social security to everyone is temporary. Some worked more or less well over generations, but still, they're not forever. Even the costly European systems. There are several, not just one, but all in deepening trouble, mainly for demographic reasons. And, too many people have obsolete ideas of saving (like bringing their money back to the bank, at effectively 0% interest, so it will rot away due to inflation). The schools will not teach them economics, because even the teachers often don't have the competence to do it. Now, these systems are trying to save themselves by pushing the pension entry age higher, or even demanding an extra year of mandatory work for boomers (sic). Both is going to bite them, because the elderly working longer will be blocking jobs for the younger = more unemployment. And, all working people are taxed more and more, which is demotivating. Why go to work, when you get only little more real income (after taxes) than those who don't, and they even have more time for themselves? "Late Roman decadence"... Add to this the potential job losses due to AI and robotization - I don't know if I would like to be 18 years old now.

There seems to be no real "plan B". Poland at this stage went effectively bankrupt, and hyperinflated its currency, which was later exchanged by a rate 10.000 to 1. Imagine your 10.000 € are suddenly worth 1 €. Whoever just had money in the bank, or pension fund, was "zeroed" effectively.

tl,dr: Nothing is ever guaranteed, except death and taxes. Invest. Diversify. Think.
 
respice finem said:
Both is going to bite them, because the elderly working longer will be blocking jobs for the younger = more unemployment
Click to expand...
You lived in Germany for a few years, if I understood correctly. One of the problems here is that attempts were made to supplement the shrinking German population with foreign workers, which did not work smoothly in many sectors and led to a more or less uncontrolled influx from poorer European countries, especially from the former Warsaw Pact states, into the German social system.

The consequences can be seen firstly in the political system and secondly in the efforts to limit this influx into the social systems.
A difficult undertaking.

If, for example, a family from Bulgaria receives more social benefits in Germany than they could earn in Bulgaria itself by working, it is somehow logical that they stay in Germany.

I think the German welfare system makes a lot of sense, but not all EU citizens should be able to use it. It will only work for a very short time.

I have always had a large number of students here from China and India, for example, because they can study in Germany more or less free of charge. (They only have to pay for accommodation and food, the studies themselves are free).

Well, many Germans are beginning to ask themselves whether there will be anything left for them in old age or in the event of illness or need, which sometimes heats up the mood in the country.
 
While you're basically right, it's a) way too late and b) even without "inviting the world", their system would "eat itself" too, only slower - too few children born, for too long. Paired with a mentality "whatever happens, the state will protect us"...
The even bigger problem - if Germany fails, the whole EU is "done". I'm not optimistic TBH...

As a sidenote: Not all migration was uncontrolled. Mine (as a doctor and Schengen citizen) took 13 months (sic), just to have the paperwork accepted.
But people "leeching" benefits were going in without a problem. Not wise...
 
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respice finem said:
Add to this the potential job losses due to AI and robotization - I don't know if I would like to be 18 years old now.
Click to expand...

respice finem said:
b) without it, their system would "eat itself" too,only slower (too few children born).
Click to expand...

Only one of the two can be correct.

But I agree with you - it's probably too late to take countermeasures here. Germany has become quite a self-service store.
 
Audionaut said:
Only one of the two can be correct.
Click to expand...
At the same time, only one - but the demographic problem was already there in the 80s, and the roots of it in the 60s.
de.wikipedia.org

Pillenknick – Wikipedia

de.wikipedia.org de.wikipedia.org
So, effectively, in 2025, "damned if you do and damned if you don't", more children = more unemployment.
Thus, it's just a question of time when the "default" occurs, unless someone has a groundbreaking idea (which, hopefully, is peaceful)...

We are living the Chinese curse: may you live in interesting times.
 
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