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The wealth-building thread

LeftCoastTim

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The US stock market has been on a tear for the last 10+ years, especially tech stocks. Crypto too. A lot of people have made a lot of easy money (me included), which increases the sense of self importance and righteousness.

Even index funds and real estate have returned outstanding results.

This is called an asset bubble. Maybe "this time it's different", and would stay this high. Maybe not.

I personally think something is about to break. Overnight reverse repo has breached 1 trillion dollars. Nobody is sure what this means. There are people trying to reassure you that nothing is wrong. Others are quietly moving a lot of money out of the US.

Good luck!
 

HiFidFan

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The US stock market has been on a tear for the last 10+ years, especially tech stocks. Crypto too. A lot of people have made a lot of easy money (me included), which increases the sense of self importance and righteousness.

Even index funds and real estate have returned outstanding results.

This is called an asset bubble. Maybe "this time it's different", and would stay this high. Maybe not.

I personally think something is about to break. Overnight reverse repo has breached 1 trillion dollars. Nobody is sure what this means. There are people trying to reassure you that nothing is wrong. Others are quietly moving a lot of money out of the US.

Good luck!


There have been so many economic signals in the last few years that in the past would have shaken the markets to the core. Nobody seems to notice, nobody seems to care.
 
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JeffS7444

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Easy. How do you think congresspeople and the folks that occupy the executive branch make their money? You think they became millionaires on their salary alone? And all their donors putting pressure on them, too :)
As ex-officials, speaking engagements, book sales, maybe use their insider status to lobby on behalf of their benefactors. But this is still mostly paid employment (and relatively small potatoes) compared to some of the world's wealthiest people.
 

HiFidFan

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As ex-officials, speaking engagements, book sales, maybe use their insider status to lobby on behalf of their benefactors. But this is still mostly paid employment (and relatively small potatoes) compared to some of the world's wealthiest people.

Aside from maybe the books, all of the above should be illegal, or at least shunned by society. IMHO.

And every politician, either active or retired, should work to benefit the citizens of their country, not their well heeled "benefactors".
 

muslhead

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The US stock market has been on a tear for the last 10+ years, especially tech stocks. Crypto too. A lot of people have made a lot of easy money (me included), which increases the sense of self importance and righteousness.

Even index funds and real estate have returned outstanding results.

This is called an asset bubble. Maybe "this time it's different", and would stay this high. Maybe not.

I personally think something is about to break. Overnight reverse repo has breached 1 trillion dollars. Nobody is sure what this means. There are people trying to reassure you that nothing is wrong. Others are quietly moving a lot of money out of the US.

Good luck!
"Others" have been moving money out of the US for decades. So trying to understand what it has to do with this building wealth topic?
Being an objective forum, the facts are important not subjective feelings. The facts is there has been an extremely large net inflow of money into the US this year. In fact, it has been more than $1T. Not a paltry amount, can we agree? Its the highest EVER since 1992 when the data started being collected. That tells should tell us much more than what a few people quietly moving money out of the US means. Just trying to understand your comment. Is it just in support of your bias the market is too high?

The reverse repo market is understood by many so , like money movement out of US by a few people, it has no real correlation to asset prices? Its a measure of bank risk and leverage. Leverage naturally increases as prices increase. Its the leverage you should be worried about, not the reverse repo market. The reverse repo market is nothing more than a barometer of leverage/risk. It is like having squeaky brakes on your car. Could be problematic or not.

While i am in complete agreement with your statement something is about to break but, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Historical data shows that betting against the trend can create a much bigger problem to deal with. Go with the trend until it ends and have a chair when the music stops
 

HiFidFan

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I've been hearing we're in a "bubble" for the last 15 years.
 

BinkieHuckerback

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When the 'market' shows a fall, do you think 'it must be because we haven't worked hard enough today'?
 

Chromatischism

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The US stock market has been on a tear for the last 10+ years, especially tech stocks. Crypto too. A lot of people have made a lot of easy money (me included), which increases the sense of self importance and righteousness.

Even index funds and real estate have returned outstanding results.

This is called an asset bubble. Maybe "this time it's different", and would stay this high. Maybe not.

I personally think something is about to break. Overnight reverse repo has breached 1 trillion dollars. Nobody is sure what this means. There are people trying to reassure you that nothing is wrong. Others are quietly moving a lot of money out of the US.
Going by historical stock market data, the "uptrends" usually last longer than this by a few more years. We'll see if "this time is different". Note that doesn't mean we won't have a correction. But it will be a correction within a bull market trend.
 
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JeffS7444

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I can see where I'm not the only one who has been (too?) fixated on "The Market" and capital gains :p as opposed to income from property rentals or operating a business, where your income doesn't depend on how hard you work. Because while I like to think I'm in great shape for my age, working crazy hours like I did in my 20s and 30s isn't sustainable.

USA economy seems like it's in a strange state where there are many jobs available, if you want to drive a truck for Amazon or deliver someone's groceries. But any job which can be performed remotely, can likely be done cheaper by someone working overseas, as this clever person figured out:
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-21043693
I figure much software development, IT, medicine, legal services, even business management might be outsource-able in this manner, hence my newfound interest in finding other ways to make a good living which don't involve working for someone else or being self-employed (because I am a real SOB of a boss).
 

Tks

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This thread kinda reminds me of those hilarious Instagram finance accounts that serve as motivational posters and be saying things like: "They say it was good that my girl broke up with me,.. I know, she's broke, I'm up." or "They asked me whether I'd take a million dollars right now, or a dollar every day... I'll take the dollar every day, PASSIVE INCOME it'll change your life". Everyone just saying vague things like "when the fat lady sings, make sure you're far enough to not hear her". So weird when I see people talking like that..

I don't understand what sort of goal you actually have though. Are you simply looking for advice on where/how to invest your money for the sake of returns after some period? If that's the case, then a few basic classes on investing would be decent enough. And then after that, turn into an analyst (but one that actually does something with respect to research, and not like these morons that barely have a clue on what they're talking about, but for some reason get paid by investment banks to state the obvious after said bank has already gone all-in weeks prior). Or get ready to pay a broker.

So lets bring up an example like tech investments for instance. (If you want to skip the example of what level of observation you need, just scroll down passed this example which I'll delineate with BOLD)

A few years back anyone with a brainstem in tech investing could see Intel was going nowhere with their 10nm node shrink (literally been half a decade, and supposedly we'll finally be seeing it by this year's end in consumer+enthusiast form). With respect to that, seeing their main competition (AMD) was making strides after dumping GoFlo (Global Foundries, based here in America) due to their piss poor rate of advancement in terms of silicon manufacturing capabilities, and so AMD resorted to TSMC. With good reason, seeing as how they are the actual suppliers of the worlds cutting edge silicon processors. Now knowing basic movement in this industry (you can't just be a silicon designer, and then simply say "oh okay, lets just build better fabs, or use fabs from others like TSMC). So Intel gets nothing, while AMD has three generations, and finally beats Intel this last generation in terms of high end CPU's in terms of performance. Another thing was, AMD also dumped that moron of a GPU lead designer (he's at Intel now) and consolidated their GPU business with their CPU business and brought out GPU's that rival Nvidia's as well, while the company is worth not even a fraction. This of course is thanks to the latest CEO at AMD being a literal genius (comp sci PhD).

Basically everything that could possibly go correctly, has for AMD (and not by luck alone, but by the moves you expect a sane company to be making).

It was so obvious, anyone remotely interested in this sector could've seen their stratospheric rise.

Now there's also TSMC (which for the longest time I simply couldn't understand why their valuation hasn't risen only until recently after every retard working in investing concerning tech realized "oh shit, these guys are literally the company that supplies the entire planet, uhh INVEST IN THIS GUYS!"). I think this company has still a ton to grow in terms of stock price. It makes not a shred of sense considering their competition is nowhere to be seen at this level. The amount of "pre-orders" from Apple, and AMD particularly that called dibs on their wafer supply is insane, and nobody seems to care (I say nobody, yet their stock in the past 2-3 years has gone up from $30's to $120's). Though recently Intel has also demonstrated they've woken up (and have begun making AMD-type moves). Finally getting rid of the executive-run.. executives, and axed that moron of a CEO that got caught messing around with his secretary (and brought in another technical veteran of the company out of retirement who is also a genius like AMD's CEO)

(End of example)

At any rate, I feel if you're going to compete in a world that allows entities as big as investment banks, hedge fund managers, and private firms that employ the biggest nerds with math/finance/economic degrees to go out and create software that algorithmically is tailored to make money (on top of just having a bunch of people doing manual invest... You're going to need to actually "invest yourself" more than your money. And by that, I mean become an analyst yourself in many fields. Likewise these sorts of plays are somewhat long term (if I wanted day trading or penny stocks, I'd go to Atlantic City).

If you're going to do the thing many do (by that I mean ask pointless questions like "do I put my money in funds of some sort, or stocks of X", the only way you'll get anywhere is by luck, or some sort of esoteric and holistic approach a savant might benefit from. Besides being versed with financial tools, you have to realize most of this stuff is essentially well-informed gambling, and nothing really complex beyond that besides things that are essentially 'schemes' for a certain sets of investors.

At the end of the day, everyone in this game is asking the same question about what to get in/out on, before it goes somewhere. Shame that the system functions by having cliques and groups that tend to keep that private. Though if I were investing (I don't, I take philosophical qualm with respect to investments through the stock market and publicly traded companies), I'd open up my books to you so you would have available the portfolio of someone who's staking their neck, and not just blowing hot air on how to be a woke investor extraordinaire. Please avoid Buffet and Lynch, both of those guys had more failures than sucess (and like most of these billionaire investors, had a few that paid off extremely well). They can give decent inspirational advice, but it begs to question with so many fans of theirs, how is it still apparently the case that being a millionaire or billionaire especially still resembles nothing other than luck. Surly you sympathize with such observation seeing as how you yourself have luck to thank according to your opening post. Buffet and Lynch, if it wasn't them who made it - it would have to be someone eventually (as probability would dictate). Also, most of these inspirational folks can only talk in the same way you or I might talk about Apple. It's always in retrospect. Now if they were writing thesis in the same fashion as they speak to would-be investors today, that would've been something interesting (and to see how their stragedy never changed, yet still worked). But no, of course not. They only speak post-hoc in the fashion they do. Somewhat smart pair that would better be served actually giving advice to people of their caliber. The level of money they make with respect to investments is superhuman - so them even trying to talk to common folk seems like a waste of time/effort beyond being inspirational in my book.
 

RayDunzl

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I trade "price action".

I'm doing DowJones $5 futures for "spending money".

Price moves the same way over and over and over with just enough variation to fool you again.

2020 "crash", at least in the DOW, was a 38.2% dip, see Fibonacci Ratios for some explanations if not familiar with the term as it applies to price action.

1630968568323.png


Any questions?
 

Jim Matthews

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So, when you're looking at an actively managed fund and it has higher returns than your index funds, it simply has higher returns, even after expenses.

Vanguard openly publishes the expense ratio for each fund on their website. In my limited experience all the retail houses that accept deposits from smaller investors (yours truly) have similar track records.

Shopping cost, first maximizes my returns.

https://moneyning.com/investing/the-impact-of-costs-on-mutual-fund-returns/
 

HiFidFan

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I trade "price action".

I'm doing DowJones $5 futures for "spending money".

Price moves the same way over and over and over with just enough variation to fool you again.

2020 "crash", at least in the DOW, was a 38.2% dip, see Fibonacci Ratios for some explanations if not familiar with the term as it applies to price action.

View attachment 151786

Any questions?

Where is the "Price Action" on the chart? Or better yet, define price action. Thanks.
 

Chromatischism

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Vanguard openly publishes the expense ratio for each fund on their website. In my limited experience all the retail houses that accept deposits from smaller investors (yours truly) have similar track records.

Shopping cost, first maximizes my returns.

https://moneyning.com/investing/the-impact-of-costs-on-mutual-fund-returns/
I like using https://finance.yahoo.com/

Also, the Fund comparison tool within Fidelity: https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener
 

HiFidFan

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RayDunzl

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Where is the "Price Action" on the chart? Or better yet, define price action. Thanks.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-action.asp

You (might) get a feel for how prices move if you watch long enough.

Draw some lines, see where price goes, where it stops, where it reverses.

I don't do "indicators".

Don't trade too often, and don't trade too big.

Don't let a winner turn into a loser if you can help it.

Don't be a pig.

Don't be shy.

If you need "confirmation" to make a trade, much of the opportunity may have already passed.

Dow mostly just swings back and forth, up a hundred, down two hundred, up two hundred, It's kinda hard to be "wrong" if you can wait till the breeze starts blowing in the other direction when you're initially wrong.

Trading takes a little study, find something that works for you. All successful small traders I've talked to have their own 'thing" that they make work for them.
 
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