The wealth-building thread

[Sono]

the trend is relentlessly upwards

That’s right. But the steepness is increasing like crazy:

 

[Mart68]

That’s right. But the steepness is increasing like crazy:

View attachment 481111

What is this graph actually of? I tend to monitor the S & P and that isn't rising so steeply. Is this gold?

 

[Sono]

What is this graph actually of?

That’s from »iShares Gold Producers (Acc)«.

 

[muslhead]

Holiday shopping returns will carry or kill the market momentum, if tradition holds.

Please link to statistical proof of this statement unless you are implying (and not stating) its effect has only short term impact (a few days), otherwise, like in audio its Hitchens razor

 

[muslhead]

That’s right. But the steepness is increasing like crazy:

View attachment 481111

it is but its also data selection bias and tells you only of the most recent years (since the beginning of 2024 when it broke out and began this parabolic rise).
As with all assets there is rotation and gold has been outperforming and on a parabolic path which can never be sustained. The problem is, as the saying goes, it can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
The gold market is in a very strong trend. Dont fight it but have an exit plan. It will eventually revert back to its mean (everything always does .... it is not different this time) which means underperformance.
Dont get caught up in the backstories especially those of gold as a hedge against inflation. Plotting gold against CPI you will see a weak correlation coefficient. Historically there are periods of strong correlation and to the other extreme, negative supporting both scenarios. The problem is we wont know which scenario we are in until we can see it in the rear view mirror. The gold bugs have an endless supply of reasons.

 

[ahofer]

Something to think about:

Empty Vessels Make the Most Noise: Analyst Self-Promotion Behavior and Market Outcomes

Based on analysts' LinkedIn profiles, we identify a robust negative correlation between the expressive tone conveyed in their self-presentations and forecast ac

papers.ssrn.com

 

[Salt]

Until now it was just a subtile feeling I had, thanks to that guys they worked it up .... and @ahofer for this posting, of course.

 

[bilifen]

I've read some of the last pages and man, there is some good info in a compact place and it's very understandable. Thanks y'all.

Myself, I am doing "only" some passive ETF stuff in Germany for retirement. Not that happy with what ETFs are in the group but it's much better what I was doing before (which was something at a local bank). I just needed to start something so I did that, had an opportunity through getting to know some people and did some insurance policies (plus the retirement ETF thing) that already (sadly) are getting put to use.
Iirc 55% in the SP500 which is kinda scary but also kinda needed. The other % I don't remember, if someone wants to know, I will look it up.

That SVOL thing I read about here seems really interesting to me, the problem is the access to this ETF from Germany, can't just do something easy like Trade Republic, the EU seems to have some strict rules which makes this not that easy to do.

Personally, I'm a "I would like to do more risk" but in reality, I'm not actually doing risky stuff with money. Even now a certain amount of money is on an account with passive interest (Trade Republic), which throws the "Opportunity Cost" thing in to play that I don't really want to think about.

Funny post from myself in hindsight.
Did too much risk and lost too much money. Money I shouldn't have played around with in this way. Should have stayed with normal stocks at most. Could have unironically gotten a Sennheiser HE-1, a purchase I would have never made.
Having my money on a passive interest account made me get into using other app functions, which brought me into relabeled gambling. Didn't help that I had/have ongoing issues related to mental health.

All in all, I'm still thinking I'm managing quite well for losing so much money. Kinda wanted to do something irrational in my life, did that I guess.
It sucks, but can't do nothing about it. There are some positive drawbacks, like I didn't go into debt for example.

Fuck around, find out. But the first time I found out I guess.

Trying to get in the direction of being profitable by doing the same thing I was doing before, just in a different way. But getting back up isn't as easy as going down. There's no alternative, aside from working, which I'm also not doing right now, related to my mental health.

 

[JeffS7444]

As of November 2025, my portfolio is not exactly balanced, and TBH, I'm amazed that it's performed as well as it has this year (knock on wood!)

I was fortunate to have such a large percentage in S&P 500 index funds during an extended bull market, but I'm currently thinking that any newer investments ought to go towards Non-USA Index Funds.

Berkshire Hathaway investment dates back to 1999; I plan on keeping it.