Its not timing the market, its just trying be less invested in US in the coming years. Most global ETFs tickers consist of mostly US tech stocks. But I found some EU staples ETFs, I'll move into those.
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The wealth-building thread
- Thread starter JeffS7444
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I think that is still market timing. You leave one asset for another with plans to return at a better time in the future. You need to more or less leave at the right time and return at the right time or it does not work to your advantage.
From investopedia.com
I think the average age of the ASR membership is pretty high with many seniors here. If you have time to recover from losing 36%, the US market is a strong performer historically. And predicting the market up and downturns is not easy as many have said. Again, if you have large amounts money is in a US IRA where switching profitable Cap Stock ETFs to Fixed Rate and Government backed Bond ETFs for nice return (current ~4%) with no tax consequences is not a bad hedging strategy for protecting your next 10-20 years of living expenses. Let your excess and non IRA investments ride and If things look rosy then switch to other things with some the that conservative IRA money.
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Buffet has been selling heavily for the last 2 years and still no major downturn. Markets are overvalued by any measure. It's difficult to identify the top before it happens. NOW we have tax cuts promised but also a promise to deport millions and enact more Tariffs than the US has ever seen (inflationary). No one knows what will happen next. Market could roll over simply from exhaustion or Fed could decide no more cuts. It's impossible to know exactly how this will impact GDP in advance - and that's the bottom line for S&P earnings. The funny thing is pretty much ALL recessions are called after they are over. Maybe one of you has a great crystal ball but selling billions hasn't paid off for Buffet yet. Few are plugged into data more than Buffet. Fewer yet will sell just before the plunge and buy the bottom just at the right time.
That's why most successful individual investors stay invested and don't try to time the market. It's been a successful strategy for those that maintain a reserve so they're never stuck cashing out during a pull back. Instead, they replenish their reserve at all time highs. Timing that event is pretty easy!
I've some BTC, the stock market has to become really wild to match the lows I've been through there.
But if someone starts sneezing you try to back off a little.
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If you are in need of electronics you might consider moving up the purchase to avoid possible Trump Tariffs. He is claiming 25% on Canada/Mexico and 35% on China will go into effect once in office. I doubt those will be the only countries impacted.
The items listed above are expected to experience some of the highest price increases. Economists predict that these tariffs could increase consumer prices by 1.4% to 5.1%, costing households between $1,900 and $7,600 annually. This inflationary effect is due to higher import costs being passed to consumers and less competition allows domestic producers to raise their prices. It might be a good time to purchase items you were already considering. Home appliances like refrigerators, washer, dryer would also see a significant price hike.
On the bright side, announcing these tariffs now will increase SPY earnings for the 4th quarter as a surge in purchases exceed previous projections to avoid expected price hikes (on just about everything). It's time to order my S&P500 "7000" T-shirt.
SPY = short term Bullish
GLD = short Term Bearish
The items listed above are expected to experience some of the highest price increases. Economists predict that these tariffs could increase consumer prices by 1.4% to 5.1%, costing households between $1,900 and $7,600 annually. This inflationary effect is due to higher import costs being passed to consumers and less competition allows domestic producers to raise their prices. It might be a good time to purchase items you were already considering. Home appliances like refrigerators, washer, dryer would also see a significant price hike.
On the bright side, announcing these tariffs now will increase SPY earnings for the 4th quarter as a surge in purchases exceed previous projections to avoid expected price hikes (on just about everything). It's time to order my S&P500 "7000" T-shirt.
SPY = short term Bullish
GLD = short Term Bearish
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OP
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You know why I'm not expecting this to happen? It's runaway inflation, it would hurt consumers and investors quickly, while any growth of new jobs and industry would be a lot slower in coming (and someone else will get the credit!). Maybe we'd see an uptick in smuggling from Canada.If you are in need of electronics you might consider moving up the purchase to avoid possible Trump Tariffs. He is claiming 25% on Canada/Mexico and 35% on China will go into effect once in office. I doubt those will be the only countries impacted.
View attachment 409707
The items listed above are expected to experience some of the highest price increases. Economists predict that these tariffs could increase consumer prices by 1.4% to 5.1%, costing households between $1,900 and $7,600 annually. This inflationary effect is due to higher import costs being passed to consumers and less competition allows domestic producers to raise their prices. It might be a good time to purchase items you were already considering. Home appliances like refrigerators, washer, dryer would also see a significant price hike.
On the bright side, announcing these tariffs now will increase SPY earnings for the 4th quarter as a surge in purchases exceed previous projections to avoid expected price hikes (on just about everything). It's time to order my S&P500 "7000" T-shirt.
SPY = short term Bullish
GLD = short Term Bearish
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Canada could sell their prescription drugs in the USA if smuggled effectively.
OP
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I keep thinking back to my macroeconomics class in which the professor stressed on multiple occasions: Economies react better to gradual, predictable, shifts, rather than large and abrupt ones. And I think big businesses that have already made investments in areas like electric vehicles and complying with environmental regulations may prefer sticking to the status quo.
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S&P 500 closed at all time high today. Based on PAIN data, it's very possible Wed end of day could be flat to small 10-20 points down AND deeper red on Friday. Only to rally again next week.
It will be interesting to see if PAIN data plays out in this way.
It will be interesting to see if PAIN data plays out in this way.
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This is absolutely true when logic is in charge. When chaos is in charge - everything is up for a coin toss. Some days it depends on whether the decision maker had a nap that day and if convincing cooler heads were in the room.
Yep, the S&P 500 has hit a record high about 50 times this year.S&P 500 closed at all time high today. Based on PAIN data, it's very possible Wed end of day could be flat to small 10-20 points down AND deeper red on Friday. Only to rally again next week.
It will be interesting to see if PAIN data plays out in this way.
Bubble?
I don't know. I don't care, either. Historically, the stock market has hit all time high quite often. I don't worry about what it's doing on any given day.
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I only care when I'm looking for an entry point. From what I see the dip on Friday Nov28 could be the consolidation that moves SPY higher than 601. After that 601 may become the new support level.
I hope it works for you. I'm not smart enough to time the stock market.
See below, I believe this is the biggest problem with trying to time the market:
78% of the stock market's best days occur during a bear market or during the first two months of a bull market. If you missed the market's 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. And missing the best 30 days would have reduced your returns by an astonishing 83%.
78% of the stock market's best days occur during a bear market or during the first two months of a bull market. If you missed the market's 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. And missing the best 30 days would have reduced your returns by an astonishing 83%.
All-Time Highs in the Stock Market are Perfectly Normal - A Wealth of Common Sense
“If you think the market’s “too high” wait ’til you see it 20 years from now.” – Nick Murray In late July the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high level of roughly 1,988. It was the 26th all-time high based on the closing price for the S&P in 2014 alone. Because we’ve seen all-time highs in...
awealthofcommonsense.com
