This is my experience, too. I build integration processes with a low code visual system but every once in a while there is a need for C# code snippets. ChatGPT and Copilot have saved me hours of frustrating trial and error work. You can also learn from their recommendations, not least because they provide explanations and comments in the code.
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The wealth-building thread
- Thread starter JeffS7444
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Today's MaxPain target for S&P 500 = 5787+ by Wed Nov 6 end of day.
Let's see if it matches reality. That's 50 points higher than current price.
With Berkshire holding a record 325 Billion in cash does Warren Buffet become the new backstop to this market?
Maybe he can afford to help upgrade his daughter's kitchen now instead of telling her to go to the bank like everyone else.
Let's see if it matches reality. That's 50 points higher than current price.
With Berkshire holding a record 325 Billion in cash does Warren Buffet become the new backstop to this market?
Maybe he can afford to help upgrade his daughter's kitchen now instead of telling her to go to the bank like everyone else.
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hmm, would hate to be the compliance officer :-}
As PM would guess it doesnt matter much.
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This election rally has busted SPY MaxPain. 
Friday, Nov8 PAIN = 5846 (Crazy)
Current price = 5998
PAIN is 152 points lower than price. What this means is dealers are going to pay out to option traders more than usual.
I wouldn't be surprised if today's SPY price actually turns into the red by close - after 3 days of unbelievable gains.
PAIN numbers should rise as we progress into next week. This is another example of how selling into high price compared to PAIN can be totally wrong. The imbalance eventually corrects itself but usually at higher price.
Friday, Nov8 PAIN = 5846 (Crazy)
Current price = 5998
PAIN is 152 points lower than price. What this means is dealers are going to pay out to option traders more than usual.
I wouldn't be surprised if today's SPY price actually turns into the red by close - after 3 days of unbelievable gains.
PAIN numbers should rise as we progress into next week. This is another example of how selling into high price compared to PAIN can be totally wrong. The imbalance eventually corrects itself but usually at higher price.
As a former "options dealer" I just want to clarify how things work as saying "dealers are going to pay out more than usual" is for the most part not accurate. Most (not all) "dealers" make their money on the "bid / ask" spread. They make a little money a lot of times without taking a lot of risk. The way you do this is that as soon as you for instance "sell some calls" to a "trader" is to hedge the position by buying some of the underlying security. The "dealers job" is to make a 2 sided market (bid and offer) on any option they are active in and lay off the "delta risk" (market direction risk) with either the underlying security or other options.
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My guess is whoever the dealer is hedging with is taking the risk or they are hedging with someone else? Bottom line is when Friday close is not within a reasonable margin of MaxPAIN then there is a good chance some unusual action is in play to try to avoid loss.
This big move higher will also make the end of year rebalance large as well. I would not be surprised to see some interesting SPY selling pressure in the last two weeks of the year.
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Has anyone considered the impact of mass deportation of undocumented immigrants on the US economy? This new wrinkle in the equation could significantly impact our economy. I found the following stats:
1. Approximately 7.6 million undocumented immigrants are employed in the U.S. labor force.
2. Undocumented immigrants contribute approximately $11.74 billion in state and local taxes annually.
3. They contribute about $13 billion per year to Social Security even though they aren't entitled to benefits.
4. 1.2 million US homes are owned by undocumented immigrants. Many with mortgages.
5. More than one in ten construction workers are undocumented—twice the rate of the U.S. workforce as a whole. Approximately 1.6 million undocumented workers contribute to the construction industry. There is currently a construction labor shortage.
6. Nearly half of agricultural workers in the United States are undocumented immigrants. Deporting them would remove approximately 950,000 workers from a total agricultural workforce of 2.2 million. Expect fresh produce to be difficult to source and higher prices?
7. In 2018, there were 208,482 foreign-born maids and housekeepers in the hospitality industry. There were 76,782 foreign-born dishwashers in the industry in 2018. The industry has faced challenges with employment verification: Many hotels steer clear of E-Verify programs because if they learn their workers have presented false papers, they would be obligated to fire them.
8. Landscaping businesses rely on undocumented workers. This also keeps legal immigrants wages down as both compete for similar jobs. Mass deportation could dramatically increase costs for landscaping work.
Mass deportation would impact lots of other sectors as well. Plus, it will increase the size of the working poor with mixed families. Estimates calculate a reduction of USA GDP by 1.4% if just 1 million of the 7.6 million undocumented immigrants are deported. Imagine the impact if 50% were deported. This will likely be a time of economic and resource dislocation in markets. People will probably be oblivious to the impact until they can't find labor to build new homes, fresh produce is hard to find and US financial market reports start showing a decline in economic activity.
1. Approximately 7.6 million undocumented immigrants are employed in the U.S. labor force.
2. Undocumented immigrants contribute approximately $11.74 billion in state and local taxes annually.
3. They contribute about $13 billion per year to Social Security even though they aren't entitled to benefits.
4. 1.2 million US homes are owned by undocumented immigrants. Many with mortgages.
5. More than one in ten construction workers are undocumented—twice the rate of the U.S. workforce as a whole. Approximately 1.6 million undocumented workers contribute to the construction industry. There is currently a construction labor shortage.
6. Nearly half of agricultural workers in the United States are undocumented immigrants. Deporting them would remove approximately 950,000 workers from a total agricultural workforce of 2.2 million. Expect fresh produce to be difficult to source and higher prices?
7. In 2018, there were 208,482 foreign-born maids and housekeepers in the hospitality industry. There were 76,782 foreign-born dishwashers in the industry in 2018. The industry has faced challenges with employment verification: Many hotels steer clear of E-Verify programs because if they learn their workers have presented false papers, they would be obligated to fire them.
8. Landscaping businesses rely on undocumented workers. This also keeps legal immigrants wages down as both compete for similar jobs. Mass deportation could dramatically increase costs for landscaping work.
Mass deportation would impact lots of other sectors as well. Plus, it will increase the size of the working poor with mixed families. Estimates calculate a reduction of USA GDP by 1.4% if just 1 million of the 7.6 million undocumented immigrants are deported. Imagine the impact if 50% were deported. This will likely be a time of economic and resource dislocation in markets. People will probably be oblivious to the impact until they can't find labor to build new homes, fresh produce is hard to find and US financial market reports start showing a decline in economic activity.
This will spur massive protests and along with tariffs will tank the economy, cause a recession. Public reaction in the midterm elections could reverse the the makeup of congress and enhance problems with massive bailout programs and more debt, weakening the dollar. The market has had some very good performance and the fixed income market is remained reasonable. Time to take some profit, hedge into more stable investments and hope cooler heads prevail.
Of course, there are 100's of articles expounding on what people think. Do a google search and you will find the answer to your question
It will reduce the quantity of cheap labour, and will cost quite a bit to implement. Industries that rely on cheap labour are likely to move some of their activity abroad, if possible. Labour shortage will increase wages a bit, but as consumers these workers will pay more. It is hard to model how this will work out, but my hunch is that few Americans will benefit.
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Today, in the 1st hour of trading S&P 500 retraced entire election rally back to lower levels. SPY is now 586.38 while MaxPain = 580. This possibility was displayed in the MaxPain data a few days ago.
Next week PAIN = 597 which is 100 S&P 500 points higher from here. If this data holds next week will be a HUGE rally into Wed. Nov 20.
Next week PAIN = 597 which is 100 S&P 500 points higher from here. If this data holds next week will be a HUGE rally into Wed. Nov 20.
OP
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Not to worry, USA citizens will be eager to pick up the slack in the country's strawberry fields, meatpacking plants, trades, and service sector.
One can hope that business interests will act as a moderating force.
OP
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Are you basing this prediction on historical trends?
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nope
I can't rely on history.
MaxPain - DEFINITION
As an options contract nears expiration, the strike price that would cause the maximum amount of pain for the highest possible number of options traders is said to be the maximum pain point.
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Max Pain Explained: How It's Calculated, With Examples
Max pain is the price at which the greatest number of options (in dollar value) will expire worthless.
It's uncanny how prices follow MaxPain most of the time.
This makes it a nice tool for evaluating where trading may go within the period of 3-7 days.
Follow the money!
Market will try to fake you out at every turn but, when it comes to options settlement they have a target price range in mind - to cause the max amount of pain.
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OP
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Thanks, I have to admit that the Investopedia article still left me puzzled, but I found a YT video which helped me to understand it better, from the institutional investor's point of view.nope
I can't rely on history.
MaxPain - DEFINITION
As an options contract nears expiration, the strike price that would cause the maximum amount of pain for the highest possible number of options traders is said to be the maximum pain point.
Max Pain Explained: How It's Calculated, With Examples
Max pain is the price at which the greatest number of options (in dollar value) will expire worthless.www.investopedia.com
It's uncanny how prices follow MaxPain most of the time.
This makes it a nice tool for evaluating where trading may go within the period of 3-7 days.
Follow the money!
Market will try to fake you out at every turn but, when it comes to options settlement they have a target price range in mind - to cause the max amount of pain.
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Oh my, this guy likes to talk. Bore me to death saying the same thing 10 different ways without actually presenting any real examples of where PAIN works.
Here are my basic rules:
A. From my experience, MaxPain doesn't work reliably with most individual stocks.
B. To be labeled a useful tool it needs to be back tested for years. I need it to be successful more than 70% to be considered. It needs to be spooky accurate for me to add it to my tools. Plus, there will need to be recognizable parameters for it to work reliably. You need to know what they are. That sounds simple, but anyone who takes MaxPain and tries to apply it to Meta is wasting their time. That's not its forte.
C. The next step is identify where Pain does offer an edge. There are zero tools that will give you 100% wins all the time. If you understand that, you look for tools that show you when you are moving with the tide versus against it. Combining those insights with a single strategy can improve odds.
D. From my observation, the S&P 500 is one of the few places where MaxPain works reliably to identify high opportunity dip buys. I look for situations where price is lower than PAIN by 6 to 12 points. Over 10 SPY points and you almost always see a bounce within a short period. Those opportunities happen typically less than 10 times a year depending on how volatile the market is.
E. It's unusual for a down market to be saved on a Friday. So many times when a MaxPain opportunity occurs it's a patten of Wed, Thurs. down and Friday puke. That type of activity can reach a price 10 points under PAIN.
F. Using PAIN to get out when price is 10 points over MaxPain is NOT reliable. The market can simply keep going higher - so don't expect it to time PEAKS.
G. MaxPain can change and usually does as the week progresses. A flexible strategy which changes with data is required.
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I've read some of the last pages and man, there is some good info in a compact place and it's very understandable. Thanks y'all.
Myself, I am doing "only" some passive ETF stuff in Germany for retirement. Not that happy with what ETFs are in the group but it's much better what I was doing before (which was something at a local bank). I just needed to start something so I did that, had an opportunity through getting to know some people and did some insurance policies (plus the retirement ETF thing) that already (sadly) are getting put to use.
Iirc 55% in the SP500 which is kinda scary but also kinda needed. The other % I don't remember, if someone wants to know, I will look it up.
That SVOL thing I read about here seems really interesting to me, the problem is the access to this ETF from Germany, can't just do something easy like Trade Republic, the EU seems to have some strict rules which makes this not that easy to do.
Personally, I'm a "I would like to do more risk" but in reality, I'm not actually doing risky stuff with money. Even now a certain amount of money is on an account with passive interest (Trade Republic), which throws the "Opportunity Cost" thing in to play that I don't really want to think about.
Myself, I am doing "only" some passive ETF stuff in Germany for retirement. Not that happy with what ETFs are in the group but it's much better what I was doing before (which was something at a local bank). I just needed to start something so I did that, had an opportunity through getting to know some people and did some insurance policies (plus the retirement ETF thing) that already (sadly) are getting put to use.
Iirc 55% in the SP500 which is kinda scary but also kinda needed. The other % I don't remember, if someone wants to know, I will look it up.
That SVOL thing I read about here seems really interesting to me, the problem is the access to this ETF from Germany, can't just do something easy like Trade Republic, the EU seems to have some strict rules which makes this not that easy to do.
Personally, I'm a "I would like to do more risk" but in reality, I'm not actually doing risky stuff with money. Even now a certain amount of money is on an account with passive interest (Trade Republic), which throws the "Opportunity Cost" thing in to play that I don't really want to think about.
I don't think most investors or traders are served thinking about markets as "Institution" vs "Trader". "Institutions" are not some monolithic group and they do not all do the same thing. Also trying to "push" a stock or even more difficult an "index" around by selling or buying creates big risks for a limited reward. This whole trader vs institution explanation does not make sense to me.
If this theory has merit I believe it is because of "pin risk" where traders (both individuals and institutions) by trying to avoid "pin risk" (owning or being short options with a strike where the market settles on the last day and not knowing if you should exercise or not or if you are going to be exercised or not) will tend to push the price right to the strike. The more open interest the more this tends to happen. Like any technical analysis there is also a certain amount of "self fulfilling prophecy" when enough people believe in it.
