The Future at Nikon

[Ron Texas]

https://nikonrumors.com/2020/05/28/nikons-new-medium-term-management-plan.aspx/
My read is low end DSLR's will be discontinued. Most of the new stuff will be full frame. More Z series full frame lenses. Not much doing with DX series cameras.

I suspect buyers of low end DSLR's neither buy additional lenses or trade up to full frame so Nikon will leave that market to Canon.

 

[GXAlan]

The gaming company SEGA transitioned from a hardware/software company to a pure software company to stay afloat. There were some mergers, but 20 years later, they're still alive and their Fiscal Year 2020 had increases in both profit and sales.

In the one worse-case scenario, Nikon will become a Pentax given its die-hard fan base. Volumes decrease, new production cadence decreases, but the camera business remains a niche part of the brand. In another worse-case scenario, it becomes Olympus where the optical division provides some R&D for industrial applications, but the optical division may not be as broad.

The last option is the SEGA option. In order to stay alive, they exit the camera body market where costs and product cycles are challenging and focus exclusively on lenses for any number of mounts.

 

[Ron Texas]

@GXAlan there are two other possibilities. One is their strategy works with some new technologies adopted and the company survives as it. The other is someone like Samsung buys the Imaging division.

The underlying problem is mobile phone photography is good enough for most consumers. After wiping out the compact digital camera segment mobile phones are now wiping out low end DSLR's and even precluding the development of low end mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras. Meanwhile, lenses from Tamron and Sigma continue to improve.

 

[Promit]

Little more context from Thom: http://www.bythom.com/
The whole photography business has been ailing for a good while now, as the compact segment disappeared and the mirrorless thing continues to restructure a lot of the high end. I have a Z6 and an A7 II and there's no particular reason Nikon can't compete in that segment, except that they're extremely late to the party. The crop sensor market is still sizeable and moving product for now, but there's definite pressure to move customers to higher margin products. The company as a whole seems to be just stalled - not in immediate danger but also not going anywhere.

 

[JeffS7444]

I suspect that as long as producing entry-level DSLRs continues to be good use of company resources, they will be built, but maybe the offerings will be streamlined, and product cycles will grow longer. Consider Sony's approach: They seem to have ceased development of of entry level E-mount cameras as early as 2014 when the A5100 was released. And as of mid-2020, this is still their entry-level offering; The next step up is the A6000 which is slightly older! And why not, for most general shooting, both performance and image quality are already very good. For the camera owner, longer product cycles can be a benefit as parts, service and accessories remain available for years.

Speaking more specifically about the DSLR market, I take my cues from the Canon official who stated words to the effect of "No more development of EF-mount lenses unless the market demands it", which implies a whole lot of uncertainty. Probably best to also assume that even official company road maps represent best guesses once they forecast beyond products which are already in the advanced development stages.

 

[pierre]

In order to survive they need to do much better pictures than a smartphone. It means lots and lots of software development. Smartphone are progressing fast, high end camera not so much.

 

[JeffS7444]

Going off on a tangent, I wonder whether we're in an era which is more about enjoying the good things which already exist, rather than a never-ending pursuit of more. Because popular trends such as phonographs, board games and film photography all seem like things which could easily have their origins in stuff scrounged from baby boomer's attics.

 

[mhardy6647]

hmmmm -- and here (courtesy of our son) I just got a new-to-me (refurbished) Nikon DX format DSLR body (D5600).
It does have better low light capability than my old one -- but it is also smaller and generally less ergonomic/intuitive (at least to me!) compared to its predecessor here (D5000).

View attachment DSC_0014.JPG

(the D5000 has been passed along to our daughter, per our son's request)

The (default JPG) file size of the new body is sort of inconveniently large.

 

[Wes]

Nikon has never offered high end lenses, esp. wide angles, for the DX cameras. I moved to Panasonic m43 for most uses a few years ago so don't care too much. I kept my D5300 tho, while selling off my full frame body.

 

[Matias]

They really should integrated Android into their entry level cameras for people to upload to the internet. Would bridge 2 worlds.

 

[GXAlan]

@GXAlan there are two other possibilities. One is their strategy works with some new technologies adopted and the company survives as it. The other is someone like Samsung buys the Imaging division.

Samsung's is out of the photography market. Their NX1 was well ahead of its time for mirrorless with on-chip cross-type phase detection, H.265 4K video, and pleasant color science. I owned one and loved it. Their 16-55/2.0-2.8 and 50-150/2.8 was sharper than Fuji's XF 16-55/2.8 and the XF 50-150 when comparing 24 vs 28MP. (I know -- I owned all 4 lenses).

Just as Samsung has decided to pull out of physical UHD Bluray players, they move their entire Imaging Division to focus on cell phones and laid off a lot of their optical engineers (many of whom went to Samyang/Irix.). I just don't see them buying Nikon for optical purposes -- only for semiconductor manufacturing.

This is in contrast to the home theater TV market / sound bar market which is still strong.

 

[mhardy6647]

Nikon has never offered high end lenses, esp. wide angles, for the DX cameras. I moved to Panasonic m43 for most uses a few years ago so don't care too much. I kept my D5300 tho, while selling off my full frame body.

Funny you mention that -- my 'real' wide angle lens is a Sigma (also a gift from our son some years back) zoom (10 to 20 mm, if memory serves). I call it the 'real estate agent's lens'.

DSC_5711 by Mark Hardy, on Flickr

DSC_8149 by Mark Hardy, on Flickr

 

[mansr]

Nikon has never offered high end lenses, esp. wide angles, for the DX cameras.

One reason I chose Canon over Nikon was their use of the EF mount across all bodies and lenses.

 

[LTig]

One reason I chose Canon over Nikon was their use of the EF mount across all bodies and lenses.

The reason for me to chose Nikon over Canon was the backwards compatibility from AF to AI mount - in 1986, when I bought an FM2. The decision was a good one since I can still use all my lenses with my newest body, a D800.

 

[mansr]

The reason for me to chose Nikon over Canon was the backwards compatibility from AF to AI mount - in 1986, when I bought an FM2. The decision was a good one since I can still use all my lenses with my newest body, a D800.

Yeah, I suppose the switch to EF would have been annoying for those who had older kit.

 

[mhardy6647]

The reason for me to chose Nikon over Canon was the backwards compatibility from AF to AI mount - in 1986, when I bought an FM2. The decision was a good one since I can still use all my lenses with my newest body, a D800.

Us, too. I admired that decision and I appreciate the fact that the whole spectrum of Nikon F mount glass is available, still, for use, albeit manually.
Of course, nowadays there are adaptors for everything, so I guess it's less of a big deal than it was a couple of decades ago.

DSC_3307 by Mark Hardy, on Flickr

For the non-Nikonistas in the audience that's a vintage F-mount Nikkor T 10.5 mm f/4 "Mountain Nikkor" triplet mounted on my earlier D5000 corpse body .
My son's lens, not mine -- but he had it shipped to me from Japan when he bought it. He's the collector.

 

[Wombat]

Yeah, I suppose the switch to EF would have been annoying for those who had older kit.

Very miffed.

And the fact that the EF Canon bodies were so huge and heavy compared to my Canon A1 FD.

Years later I have a Fuji XT1 which is almost identical in size to the A1 and can use all of my FD lenses on it at the equivalent focal lengths via an optical adapter which even gives an F-stop increase. The EOS 5D and the Series 1 EF lenses never come out of storage. I also have a small number of Fuji lenses and also Fuji AE1 and X100. Light weight, less obtrusive, and better than my photography skill, all of them. No need to upgrade at my age.

 

[restorer-john]

No need to upgrade at my age.

Don't need no more megapixels, just need them pixels to be bigger so I can see them. @"where did I put my glasses?"

 

[restorer-john]

And the fact that the EF Canon bodies were so huge and heavy compared to my Canon A1 FD.

Yes, they were big and heavy. I still have an EOS-600 and EOS-650 body someplace. Their first EOS series (1987) 70-210mm f4 zoom however is a gorgeous lens. I have a few of them and it's still one of my goto lenses.

 

[Wombat]

Fewer high performance pixels are better than a few more pretty ordinary ones, too. It is not just numbers.