The future…what is the landscape in 10 years?

[kemmler3D]

A new class of massless experimental speakers that won't hit the market until 15-20 years from now.

An ultrasonic array will vibrate air to create any directivity pattern from 1-20kHz. Users will be able to select arbitrary patterns for older formats like stereo, and in spatial audio formats sound sources will be encoded with specific directivity. Music will become even less channel-based and instead be discussed in terms of virtual environments.

Three-Dimensional Mid-Air Acoustic Manipulation by Ultrasonic Phased Arrays - PMC

The essence of levitation technology is the countervailing of gravity. It is known that an ultrasound standing wave is capable of suspending small particles at its sound pressure nodes. The acoustic axis of the ultrasound beam in conventional ...

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Isn't this plagued by distortion because the ultrasonic -> audible conversion is inherently nonlinear? I haven't read the article, but I think I read this somewhere a while back.

 

[Leporello]

In ten years high end audio will be essentially dead. We - here at ASR - do not always realize how little interest in audio people have outside of the hard core hobbyist community. Two channel stereo is essentially a gimmick from the fifties. No amount of dsp or brilliant speaker design will overcome that. Multichannel is even less popular among normal consumers. They are perfectly happy with monophonic bluetooth lifestyle speakers - no reason why they should not be.

 

[Waxx]

Stereo systems still sell more than you suggest, but it's not everybody's ideal anymore, that is true. It became an intentional buy for music lovers who want to define them as serious listeners. And among them are even teenagers, and more than you think.

But just like transistor radio's were good enough for many, bluetooth boomboxes are also enough. Especially when they actually sound quiet decent like most of the (relative cheap) JBL ones. Stereo systems are for intentional listening, boomboxes for musical background noise (to put it very black/white) for many now.

 

[Tell]

I'm curious whata program like Boundary Lab will bring to loudspeaker development in the future.
It's an open source program made by the same guy that have popularised some very successful MEH designs for PA usage. It's essentially a program to simulate spinoramas in a very fast and efficient way, and he has used some semi-automated way of itterating versions if it was hundreds (or even thousands?!) of both his SAWMOD and Solana horns to get the optimal dispersion patterns.

In ten years high end audio will be essentially dead. We - here at ASR - do not always realize how little interest in audio people have outside of the hard core hobbyist community. Two channel stereo is essentially a gimmick from the fifties. No amount of dsp or brilliant speaker design will overcome that. Multichannel is even less popular among normal consumers. They are perfectly happy with monophonic bluetooth lifestyle speakers - no reason why they should not be.

That's what people always been saying, and of course the general public really don't care how it sounds, but at the same time they will still get better and better audio no matter what device they're playing from because of DSP and brilliant speaker/headphone design.
But there will ALWAYS be people interested in really good audio quality, new audiophiles are born every day! And for those stereo will definitely be very alive and kicking with DSP and brilliant speaker designs

 

[Curvature]

Isn't this plagued by distortion because the ultrasonic -> audible conversion is inherently nonlinear? I haven't read the article, but I think I read this somewhere a while back.

I think it may be possible to manipulate the nonlinearity of air to achieve the kind of response we want. The SPL from the arrays will be incredibly high in the focal area so nonlinearity is sort of a given.

The article really doesn't demonstrate anything directly other than acoustic levitation of small bits of foam. A much more complicated version of this kind of manipulation was done by Tom Danley, where they were trying to move plasma around without using a container. It's old tech, fundamentally, but so much interesting stuff is happening these days with beamforming.

 

[RDoc]

Surround sound, likely a messy mix of Dolby ATMOS and and open source like ECLIPSA, will dominate video streaming and result in soundbars and other home theater gear supporting it. That will carry over to music oriented HiFi preamps/streamers and speaker systems. Streaming services such as Amazon will carry over their surround sound video streaming to their music services, especially since the new codecs require such low data rates. All that, in combination with better room equalization systems, will move a lot of enthusiasts to multi-speaker surround sound systems with extensive DSP equalization hardware.

The big push in HiFi enthusiasts at that point will be focused on better software and speakers to improve "presence" which will be much better defined technically. Perhaps we'll see dedicated home theater rooms moving towards speaker arrays for both sound sources and sinks.

 

[kemmler3D]

That's what people always been saying, and of course the general public really don't care how it sounds

I've done (market, not academic) research directly with consumers on this topic and it's not exactly true. The average person actually does want good sound quality. If they are shopping for gear, generally the goal is to get the best sound within their budget, just like any of us.

What's different is they don't know or particularly care how the gear works or how it produces good sound. They also don't have the vocabulary or listening experience to finely discriminate between gear with better or worse sound. Their budgets also tend to be far short of what will get you real hi-fi as defined on ASR. $100 or $200 tends to be the ceiling, not the floor.

I guess it's fair to say they don't "really" care. Just like most people who drive or drink wine don't "really" care about cars or wine. But I also think more people than you'd expect could get excited about good sound under the right circumstances.

A nice stereo is just not the status symbol it used to be. People don't have a lot of space for them, TVs tend to be the centerpiece and not a stereo. And opportunities to appreciate why a $1000 stereo might be worth thinking about over a $100 bluetooth speaker do not abound. It doesn't help that "audiophiles" have a vague but definite reputation of being fussy weirdos who love to spend large sums on esoteric nonsense. There is a perception that achieving hifi is a truly unreasonable goal.

The industry at large has a branding problem made worse by so many of its marketing channels being taken over by snake oil and nonsense. Let's be frank: If you are a layperson who walks into a hi-fi show like Axpona with some money to spend, you are liable to get scammed. That's the best word for it. Same goes for opening up many of the hi-fi blogs or forums.

If a subjectivist audiophile shows off their latest $4000 DAC purchase to their layperson friends, the friends will, at best, perceive a slight difference due to placebo and that's it. This does not get anyone into the hobby. This does not expand its footprint. It cements the perception of the hobby as being a questionable money pit for fussy weirdos.

What would get people into the hobby? Going to someone's house and hearing loud, clean sound with deep, controlled bass.

Perhaps the whole problem with the industry is too much money going into electronics and not enough into speakers.

If history had gone another way, "audiophile" wouldn't mean fussy weirdo, it would mean someone that knows how to build a badass stereo system on a budget. And that would be more useful in getting average people into hi-fi.

 

[RDoc]

I've done (market, not academic) research directly with consumers on this topic and it's not exactly true. The average person actually does want good sound quality. If they are shopping for gear, generally the goal is to get the best sound within their budget, just like any of us.

What's different is they don't know or particularly care how the gear works or how it produces good sound. They also don't have the vocabulary or listening experience to finely discriminate between gear with better or worse sound. Their budgets also tend to be far short of what will get you real hi-fi as defined on ASR. $100 or $200 tends to be the ceiling, not the floor.

I guess it's fair to say they don't "really" care. Just like most people who drive or drink wine don't "really" care about cars or wine. But I also think more people than you'd expect could get excited about good sound under the right circumstances.

A nice stereo is just not the status symbol it used to be. People don't have a lot of space for them, TVs tend to be the centerpiece and not a stereo. And opportunities to appreciate why a $1000 stereo might be worth thinking about over a $100 bluetooth speaker do not abound. It doesn't help that "audiophiles" have a vague but definite reputation of being fussy weirdos who love to spend large sums on esoteric nonsense. There is a perception that achieving hifi is a truly unreasonable goal.

The industry at large has a branding problem made worse by so many of its marketing channels being taken over by snake oil and nonsense. Let's be frank: If you are a layperson who walks into a hi-fi show like Axpona with some money to spend, you are liable to get scammed. That's the best word for it. Same goes for opening up many of the hi-fi blogs or forums.

If a subjectivist audiophile shows off their latest $4000 DAC purchase to their layperson friends, the friends will, at best, perceive a slight difference due to placebo and that's it. This does not get anyone into the hobby. This does not expand its footprint. It cements the perception of the hobby as being a questionable money pit for fussy weirdos.

What would get people into the hobby? Going to someone's house and hearing loud, clean sound with deep, controlled bass.

Perhaps the whole problem with the industry is too much money going into electronics and not enough into speakers.

If history had gone another way, "audiophile" wouldn't mean fussy weirdo, it would mean someone that knows how to build a badass stereo system on a budget. And that would be more useful in getting average people into hi-fi.

From what I've seen, home theater is a major sales factor in sound systems. Deep bass, sharp sound effects, clear dialog and strong surround sound effects are very impressive. Quite a few people are willing to spend some money on a good home movie experience and it tends to have a good WAF as well. Personally, I think that will be the driving force and great HiFi sound will be a side effect in the industry.

 

[kemmler3D]

From what I've seen, home theater is a major sales factor in sound systems. Deep bass, sharp sound effects, clear dialog and strong surround sound effects are very impressive. Quite a few people are willing to spend some money on a good home movie experience and it tends to have a good WAF as well. Personally, I think that will be the driving force and great HiFi sound will be a side effect in the industry.

Hey, good audio equipment is good audio equipment. What you use it to listen to is your business.

I think music is easier in terms of informal demos to get people interested in it. And I think stereo has a place as an entry point, since a multichannel system is going to be at least twice as expensive and obtrusive as the same gear for stereo.

I also think the younger generation also tends to pointedly lack any space they could devote to a real HT, so stereo is the only route to hifi there.

But broadly I agree.

 

[Timcognito]

From what I've seen, home theater is a major sales factor in sound systems. Deep bass, sharp sound effects, clear dialog and strong surround sound effects are very impressive. Quite a few people are willing to spend some money on a good home movie experience and it tends to have a good WAF as well. Personally, I think that will be the driving force and great HiFi sound will be a side effect in the industry.

Yes and TV/screen/projector will be the the AVP of the future with small packaged audio/DSP units inside.

 

[pablolie]

... a multichannel system is going to be at least twice as expensive and obtrusive as the same gear for stereo..

Soundbars have come a very long way. With DSP galore they can provide pretty immmersive movie sound. Still don't convince me for music though, but they are a future factor to keep in consideration.

 

[Tell]

I've done (market, not academic) research directly with consumers on this topic and it's not exactly true. The average person actually does want good sound quality. If they are shopping for gear, generally the goal is to get the best sound within their budget, just like any of us.

What's different is they don't know or particularly care how the gear works or how it produces good sound. They also don't have the vocabulary or listening experience to finely discriminate between gear with better or worse sound. Their budgets also tend to be far short of what will get you real hi-fi as defined on ASR. $100 or $200 tends to be the ceiling, not the floor.

I guess it's fair to say they don't "really" care. Just like most people who drive or drink wine don't "really" care about cars or wine. But I also think more people than you'd expect could get excited about good sound under the right circumstances.

A nice stereo is just not the status symbol it used to be. People don't have a lot of space for them, TVs tend to be the centerpiece and not a stereo. And opportunities to appreciate why a $1000 stereo might be worth thinking about over a $100 bluetooth speaker do not abound. It doesn't help that "audiophiles" have a vague but definite reputation of being fussy weirdos who love to spend large sums on esoteric nonsense. There is a perception that achieving hifi is a truly unreasonable goal.

The industry at large has a branding problem made worse by so many of its marketing channels being taken over by snake oil and nonsense. Let's be frank: If you are a layperson who walks into a hi-fi show like Axpona with some money to spend, you are liable to get scammed. That's the best word for it. Same goes for opening up many of the hi-fi blogs or forums.

If a subjectivist audiophile shows off their latest $4000 DAC purchase to their layperson friends, the friends will, at best, perceive a slight difference due to placebo and that's it. This does not get anyone into the hobby. This does not expand its footprint. It cements the perception of the hobby as being a questionable money pit for fussy weirdos.

What would get people into the hobby? Going to someone's house and hearing loud, clean sound with deep, controlled bass.

Perhaps the whole problem with the industry is too much money going into electronics and not enough into speakers.

If history had gone another way, "audiophile" wouldn't mean fussy weirdo, it would mean someone that knows how to build a badass stereo system on a budget. And that would be more useful in getting average people into hi-fi.

Well yeah maybe I was a bit too harsh, of course people do care that it sounds decent and not like garbage, but many people don't care nearly as much as we on ASR, they are fine with something that's "good enough" without having to care too much. Which is why the future (and even current gen) is good for the because most stuff sounds quite good without them having to care

But yeah, audiophilia has a bad rap because of all these status snake oil brands, but I have a feeling that that is slowly but steadily dying out.

 

[Waxx]

Well yeah maybe I was a bit too harsh, of course people do care that it sounds decent and not like garbage, but many people don't care nearly as much as we on ASR, they are fine with something that's "good enough" without having to care too much. Which is why the future (and even current gen) is good for the because most stuff sounds quite good without them having to care

But yeah, audiophilia has a bad rap because of all these status snake oil brands, but I have a feeling that that is slowly but steadily dying out.

Well one of the major record shop chains in Belgium, the Music Mania (since 1969), used to have a quiet crappy Bose sound system, and moved to Kii speakers and bragged a lot about these in their ads and social media. And it draws crowd. It helps that they are designed by a Belgian, Bruno Putzeys, but quiet a lot of people in Gent (where the shops are located) bought Kii's and use now dsp (because it's build in) because they heared them in their favorite record shop. And those Kii's are not cheap. That is a good way to sell hifi systems to music lovers...

 

[kemmler3D]

they are fine with something that's "good enough" without having to care too much.

This is true, I guess my point is that most people who bother buying headphones or speakers beyond those built into their TVs still take interest if something sounds better than "good enough" and (critically) it's in their budget.

audiophilia has a bad rap because of all these status snake oil brands, but I have a feeling that that is slowly but steadily dying out.

Yes, I think the problem is that media that writes about audio either 1) is in bed with those brands or 2) doesn't know anything about or write about real hi-fi gear.

Can you find a review of Ascilab on Gizmodo or Engadget, for example? Nope. What about What Hi-Fi or Absolute Sound? Also nope. The outlets either lack the expertise to understand why they're interesting and test the gear even somewhat correctly, or they've got vested interests in not focusing on the best bang-for-buck, true highest performance gear. Youtubers have the same problems, plus an additional layer of perverse incentives added by Youtube itself.


Part of the problem with mainstream audio reviewers (on any of the gadget blogs, Wirecutter, etc.) don't have any audio background, so the important nuances get lost, often the reviews are compromised by very uncontrolled listening, etc. They don't have the background to pick apart marketing claims beyond what they hear in casual listening.

This isn't really their fault, they are gadget reviewers and audio gadgets are gadgets. But as a way to justify spending more on hi-fi equipment, there isn't much of a ladder for the average layperson to climb. The people talking about audio in the mainstream press aren't talking hi-fi and the ones talking hi-fi often can't be trusted. It says something when Crutchfield - a retailer - is one of the more trustworthy voices in the space.

 

[JeffS7444]

10 years from now, people will be grumbling that their favorite brands are no longer being made in China, and consider it as proof that everything's gone downhill.

Mechanical phonographs return! Not just for the youth market, but the high-end of the market too, where they'll be likened to a fine mechanical timepiece.

There will be an uptick of interest in standard-definition TV (480i / 480p, 4:3 aspect ratio), with 10" and 13" screen sizes being particular favorites.

 

[dtaylo1066]

In ten years high end audio will be essentially dead. We - here at ASR - do not always realize how little interest in audio people have outside of the hard core hobbyist community. Two channel stereo is essentially a gimmick from the fifties. No amount of dsp or brilliant speaker design will overcome that. Multichannel is even less popular among normal consumers. They are perfectly happy with monophonic bluetooth lifestyle speakers - no reason why they should not be.

High end audio is a very niche product. But it continues to stay alive and move forward. I don't see that changing much in terms of overall units sold. And how do you define high end? Price or performance?

People love their TVs, so audio for TVs is enough to keep some things moving. Listening through speakers to music will continue to give way to IEMs and headphones, expecially among younger generations. I would not invest in a speaker company.

The future could play out via devices in ears.

I am in the odd bunch, as I do not like listening with headphones or IEMs. A wireless and lossless IEM/headphone is a compelling concept and device for many music listeners.

 

[Leporello]

Well yeah maybe I was a bit too harsh, of course people do care that it sounds decent and not like garbage, but many people don't care nearly as much as we on ASR, they are fine with something that's "good enough" without having to care too much. Which is why the future (and even current gen) is good for the because most stuff sounds quite good without them having to care

But yeah, audiophilia has a bad rap because of all these status snake oil brands, but I have a feeling that that is slowly but steadily dying out.

I have slowly started to question my own interest in audio and wonder if the ordinary bluetooth box buyers are actually right. Ordinary people do not usually become audiophiles after someone demoes ”good (according to us) sound” to them. They may say ”wow, good bass, I can hear everything so clearly” and then go on with their lives. They hear the difference, sure - the same difference we do - but they do not find it important enough to care.

Let’s mark a theoretically perfect system with 100. A truly high end stereo reaches 25. A mediocre consumer store home stereo reaches perhaps 21. Ordinary consumers realize this. Why would they put the time, money and effort to reach utterly marginal gains?

 

[Ruediger]

I think in 10 years the hipsters will be busy with the shellac revival. Mono will be the new immersive gen-A trend.

OK serious. Much more all in one boxes that are really good and do away with anything all in one once stood for.

 

[Pretorious]

Given how far the technology has come, there will be a continued push to make good, and even great sound, even more convenient than it already is. The average consumer is already well-off in their choices, and this will only get better. Wireless, multi-channel systems will be cheaper and even more dead simple to setup. Likewise, immersive audio will be within reach to anyone that wants to experience it.

Our lot (that is, the realm of this site, traditional hifi gear) will be around, almost unchanged. The engineering will be more refined, but the solved problems of today will still be the solved problems of tomorrow. There will not be much to do with passive speakers and AVRs. But, perhaps, there will be a push to make active hifi gear that looks and feels the part, and allows those of us with an inclination towards tinkering and loud, accurate sound, able to construct a wireless system that is both convenient, practical, expandable, serviceable and accurate.

Mixed reality will probably be in the forefront, allowing people to enjoy a truly concert-like experience at home with sound to match. Headphones will continue to be a big part of this and will be made lighter, more comfortable to wear, more isolating, so that the mixed reality experience will be like a real life one. It will be remarkable and uncanny.

There will be much to look forward to in the future, and we needn't fear any of it. The advances benefit us all.

 

[Palladium]

Let’s mark a theoretically perfect system with 100. A truly high end stereo reaches 25. A mediocre consumer store home stereo reaches perhaps 21. Ordinary consumers realize this. Why would they put the time, money and effort to reach utterly marginal gains?

If you think about it. the only really hard thing left in speaker design is squeezing out bass from small drivers.