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Stay safe out there, Omicron going parabolic

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ahofer

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I wish everybody a safe and healthy holiday. I'm in NYC, and Omicron is racing through the city. I believe we've just recorded our third day of pandemic record new cases, and the testing facilities are overwhelmed (graph below is New York City).

I truly hope it does turn out to be less severe, or it's going to be a very tough month coming up.

Everybody stay safe and try to enjoy the holidays.

1640035464753.png

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monkeyboy

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Cases aren't hospitalizations...PCR testing has a high false positive rate, what cycle threshold are they using...south africa isn't having a problem...how do they even know it's Omicron?...I don't believe the PCR testing can distinguish alpha from delta from omicron....
 

JamesYeomans

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It's summer time in SA + they have a younger population, those may be factors in their numbers.
 
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ahofer

ahofer

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Cases aren't hospitalizations...PCR testing has a high false positive rate, what cycle threshold are they using...south africa isn't having a problem...how do they even know it's Omicron?...I don't believe the PCR testing can distinguish alpha from delta from omicron....
I showed cases, and yes they lag for now but they are up over 50%, and hospitals in NY are running out of ICU beds. PCR testing does have high false positive, but I've heard Omicron can be distinguished (one of the markers fails), obviously, the CDC is sequencing frantically and,I've heard, has estimated 1/3 of cases in NY are Omicron (that was only 13% on Wednesday 12/16). South Africa is a much younger population, but there is *some* hope that it is less severe, but the UK says there is no evidence of that.

Did I answer all your questions? I'm not sure I understand the tone of your response.
 
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monkeyboy

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My tone is that omicron is just more fear porn...maybe they should bring back the hospital ships...they didn't get used last time....
 

Madjalapeno

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Our neighbor works at the local hospital in the emergency department. To see the toll on her is heartbreaking. They're not accepting anyone for procedures that require an overnight stay, and have cancelled all non-essential surgery.

It's real, and things are at capacity.
 

Thunder22

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This is an interesting episode.
 

monkeyboy

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The balance of the evidence is that Omicron leaked from a lab engaged in SARS-2 vaccine research. There are many possibilities: It might represent a live, attenuated virus vaccine used informally among researchers, that mutated back to virulence and escaped; it might have been released accidentally; it could even be an attempt to develop a self-spreading vaccine to immunise animals or third world populations.

a little early to be rolling out a mid-term variant
 
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