[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]

[MediumRare]

In this case, we truly don't know it at all. It isn't like, "Oh, we may be off by 3 or 4%." We have absolutely no idea because there's a known systematic bias and almost no actual randomized test data. Get THAT data and there's something to talk about.

Referring to "detections" as "cases" is absolutely wrong and yet it keeps being repeated again and again.

Let's accept what you say. So what?

Does it mean there are no cases? Does it mean there are no deaths? Does it matter in practical terms if the fatality rate is actually 0.5% (330 million * 80% * 0.5% = 1.3 million untimely deaths in the US alone), or maybe it's 0.1% = 260,000 deaths? (Note: if we believe New York actually has a 14% infection rate as reported this week the mortality rate would be 0.7%).

So, what does it mean to you if the denominator is off by a factor of 10 or 20?

 

[maty]

There is a topic that many obviate, many of those who have recovered after being hospitalized will suffer chronic ailments -> greater burden on the health system and more money.

If a large percentage of the population is infected at this time before we can act quickly during the first symptoms, as Germany, South Korea... has managed to do, we will have a great additional problem.

Until effective treatments are generalized during the first phase of the disease, the most logical thing will be to avoid contagion from many people by now, I think. We need a few? weeks more. And "tons" of confiable tests.

 

[Schackmannen]

Let's accept what you say. So what?

Does it mean there are no cases? Does it mean there are no deaths? Does it matter in practical terms if the fatality rate is actually 0.5% (330 million * 80% * 0.5% = 1.3 million untimely deaths in the US alone), or maybe it's 0.1% = 260,000 deaths? (Note: if we believe New York actually has a 14% exposure rate as reported this week the mortality would be 0.7%).

So, what does it mean to you if the denominator is off by a factor of 10 or 20?

I don't know about you, but to me there is a huge difference between 1.3 million and 65000 deaths (factor 20 less). As to why it matters it's difficult to discuss without getting political.

 

[SIY]

So, what does it mean to you if the denominator is off by a factor of 10 or 20?

The difference between 1% mortality and 0.05% mortality, for instance. Or 10% vs 0.5%...

And that's assuming 20x, which I suspect is low. Right now, there is almost zero testing of asymptomatic people, and in the few cases where there is some scant data in that regard, the incidence of infection looks much higher than the reported number of actual detections.

 

[MediumRare]

I don't know about you, but to me there is a huge difference between 1.3 million and 65000 deaths (factor 20 less). As to why it matters it's difficult to discuss without getting political.

Just to clarify, there's no way the number will top out at 65,000. Look at the tailoff of deaths to date in Spain and Italy: Spain's fatalities peaked on 3/31, when there were 8,400 dead. Less than a month later there are over 23,000. That's AFTER the peak. And it's not done yet. Even if we peaked daily deaths on 4/21 when we had 40,000, what does your curve say we'll hit as a cumulative death count?

Obviously 20x deaths is more meaningful than 1x. But who is going to advocate we should let nature take its course? 0.7% mortality = 2.3 million in the US. And do we count only deaths?

 

[Wes]

Perhaps, but the "greenies" will not like that at all.

I'm a 'greenie' and I like it fine. The cure is to get rid of huge cities.

 

[MediumRare]

By the way, if anyone thinks I may have been unfair referring to Spain's fatality curve since daily peak (2.7x in 26 days), here are a few others chosen off the top of my head:
- Netherlands: daily deaths peaked 3/30 with 864 cumulative, today 4,475. (5x in 27 days)
- Sweden: daily deaths peaked 4/7 with 862 cumulative, today 2,174. (2.5x in 19 days)
- UK: daily deaths peaked 4/7 with 8,958 cumulative, today 20,732. (2.3x in 19 days)

 

[MediumRare]

Is there a Kiwi here who can explain NZ’s apparent success? My reading is they locked down similarly to many other places, but enforced compliance better. What’s the full story?

Anyway, we got off on a tangent. My original question is: What can explain the low, flat curve tailing to nothing in NZ? Surely we can learn something from that.

 

[Putter]

Anyway, we got off on a tangent. My original question is: What can explain the low, flat curve tailing to nothing in NZ? Surely we can learn something from that.

Good political leadership, a geographically isolated location and relatively homogeneous population would be my guess. And yes politics/cultural differences/social structure can explain at least some of the differences in mortality.

 

[Putter]

The difference between 1% mortality and 0.05% mortality, for instance. Or 10% vs 0.5%...

And that's assuming 20x, which I suspect is low. Right now, there is almost zero testing of asymptomatic people, and in the few cases where there is some scant data in that regard, the incidence of infection looks much higher than the reported number of actual detections.

In a previous post I referenced NYS antibody testing

Results of NY Antibody Testing

If the actual infection rate among the entire population is similar to the early sample infection rate they found of 13.9%, it would change the death rate of the state, Cuomo said. New York is reporting 15,500 COVID-19 deaths, and if 2.7 million people were infected, that would mean the death rate would be 0.5%, Cuomo said.

This is not the final word in determining infection rate. They used supermarket shoppers. I would suspect they're older adults who may want to determine if they were infected and that children would be underrepresented. "Mommy, don't let them stick my finger!"

 

[SIY]

In a previous post I referenced NYS antibody testing

Results of NY Antibody Testing

If the actual infection rate among the entire population is similar to the early sample infection rate they found of 13.9%, it would change the death rate of the state, Cuomo said. New York is reporting 15,500 COVID-19 deaths, and if 2.7 million people were infected, that would mean the death rate would be 0.5%, Cuomo said.

This is not the final word in determining infection rate. They used supermarket shoppers. I would suspect they're older adults who may want to determine if they were infected and that children would be underrepresented. "Mommy, don't let them stick my finger!"

Is NY following the same pattern as elsewhere, where a vast majority of deaths were at nursing homes and similar facilities?

 

[Wombat]

No boarders , split in two low population density... Housing tends to be more spread out .

I'm sure missed something.

Apple's to oranges , very little to be gained from comparing nations like this imo

Political will was present earlier and likely for longer than in other jurisdictions.

 

[Don Hills]

Why we've been moderately successful in New Zealand:
- Early closing of the borders to other than returning citizens.
- Mandatory isolation of all arrivals for 14 days (originally self isolation at home, later in government provided hotels).
- Test all arrivals and mandatory quarantine of confirmed and probable cases until free of virus.
- Strict lockdown, stay at home. Keep to your "bubble".
- All businesses requiring "onsite" workers (except essential services) closed.

We've been at this level for a little over a month and are about to relax things a little, but only slightly.
We've massively ramped up our testing capability (over 2% of the population tested so far) and our contract tracing system. The plan is to aggressively trace cases as they occur and identify the source. If there's any sign of community transmission taking off, reintroduce strict lockdown.

Here's a link to a site that publishes comprehensive figures daily:
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/03/27/1101216/covid-19-in-nz-the-numbers
(Link says March, but is updated daily)

Link to a local forum where daily results are presented and discussed:
https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=161&topicid=268639

 

[Putter]

Is NY following the same pattern as elsewhere, where a vast majority of deaths were at nursing homes and similar facilities?

This came from NYS Govt. Data
Data as of 04.25.2020 * Number includes residents who died at either a facility or hospital

Nursing Home Fatalities 2960 Adult Care Facility Fatalities 641 Grand Total* 3601

Total Deaths 16,966

That would give a 17.4% for nursing homes and 21.2% if including Adult Care Facility Fatalities.

This would indicate a significant %, but not the vast majority. Of course I can't guarantee the data is accurate.

 

[SIY]

This came from NYS Govt. Data
Data as of 04.25.2020 * Number includes residents who died at either a facility or hospital

Nursing Home Fatalities 2960 Adult Care Facility Fatalities 641 Grand Total* 3601

Total Deaths 16,966

That would give a 17.4% for nursing homes and 21.2% if including Adult Care Facility Fatalities.

This would indicate a significant %, but not the vast majority. Of course I can't guarantee the data is accurate.

Thanks for looking that up. I've seen a lot of spread, varying from area to area.

 

[Putter]

Thanks for looking that up. I've seen a lot of spread, varying from area to area.

You're welcome. This whole Covid mess has been a fascinating subject for me.

 

[SIY]

You're welcome. This whole Covid mess has been a fascinating subject for me.

Was this the table you used? I was unsurprised by the patterns in the data.

 

[Dimitri]

Looking at Italy and New Zeland, NZ population over 65 is 17% or so compared to 23% of Italy.

In real numbers, NZ about 4.8M total population.
In Lombardia Italy, just the 65+ population alone is around 2.3M.

Then you look up population density and you end up with 23 people per quare mile for New Zeland vs ..wait for it .... 27000 people per square mile for New York.

To quote SIY from above : I was unsurprised by the patterns in the data.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/569201/population-distribution-by-age-group-in-italy/
https://www.citypopulation.de/en/italy/admin/03__lombardia/
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work...tatauranga-taupori-demographics/age-structure

 

[Wombat]

Covid 19 infection may cause diabetes in some people:

https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2020/04/27/coronarivus-diabetes-risk-research/

 

[MediumRare]

Looking at Italy and New Zeland, NZ population over 65 is 17% or so compared to 23% of Italy.

Then you look up population density and you end up with 23 people per quare mile for New Zeland vs ..wait for it .... 27000 people per square mile for New York.

The density comparison is unfair. The US density is low too if you include the farmland and the mountains and deserts. Aukland's density of 3,400 per sq mile is the same as where I live in Chicago, but our rate of infection is over 10 times higher. Manhattan is, of course, one of the densest cities in the developed world.