[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]

[MarcT]

No data. Once heard a doctor I do not know where. Maybe in the video (very interesting) of the two department heads. There they already commented about the blood and the cases of thrombosis, hence the anticoagulant is now used in the treatment to prevent.

In China, if you entered the ICU you had a 50% survival. Since then, more is known about the virus and how to treat it at earlier stages.

I still do not understand why there are so few recovered in the statistics of a few countries. The difference is vast, something is wrong. They are supposed to be sick who tested positive at the hospital and then, after healing, tested negative, what is the criteria of the WHO to be able to compare.

Here in my county, people started asking questions as to why, a month or more after the first cases were reported, that the health department showed zero recovered patients. Only one or two deaths had been reported, so people were wondering how there could have been zero recoveries of the initial cases after a month or more. A small nearby county was already reporting the number of recovered cases, so it was aggravating to some of us that our local health department was not giving out much information. Apparently, there was some confusion or controversy as to what would constitute a recovery for reporting purposes. It took about a month, but they finally started including the number of recovered patients in the data they release. As of 4/23, they show a total of 131 cases and 59 recovered.

 

[Deleted member 65]

The article was written on April 6 so let's see how they're doing compared to the surrounding countries using https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries link as of today.

Cases/1M population Deaths/1M population Tests/1M population
Sweden 1739 213 9357
Finland 793 32 13446
Denmark 1470 70 21638
Norway 1365 36 28614

I was apprised of this on the Rachel Maddow show on CNBC. Various Fox New Prime Time hosts kept highlighting Sweden as the prime example of how to get on with life in the Corona virus, allow life to go on as normal with minimal precautions, i.e. from an ABC News article There is a voluntary lockdown in place. People are advised to work from home where possible and maintain social distancing. They are told not to visit elderly relatives and of course wash their hands. The local economy has still suffered.

This struck her as odd given that Sweden is about as Socialist as you can get. She pointed out that it's no longer in they're no longer in their conversation. At this point I would give it a FAIL, although some point out that maybe they'll escape a 2nd wave in the Fall. As I mentioned in a previous post, if this is considered too political please remove my commentary, but leave the numbers. I try to only present facts not political opinions.

To quote Nicholas Cusanus ”I know what I don’t know”, the outcome of all of this is something I don’t know.
I’ll probably have an opinion come new year 2022.

/Take care!

 

[tuga]

Anyone in the US to be participating in the "disinfectant" de-Covid19 drug test trials?


Oxford COVID-19 vaccine begins human trial stage
University of Oxford researchers have begun testing a COVID-19 vaccine in human volunteers in Oxford today. Around 1,110 people will take part in the trial, half receiving the vaccine and the other half (the control group) receiving a widely available meningitis vaccine.

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-04-23-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-begins-human-trial-stage

 

[SIY]

Anyone in the US to be participating in the "disinfectant" de-Covid19 drug test trials?

No, but I'll be getting a great deal of UV exposure hiking in Arizona this weekend.

 

[MediumRare]

Lindbergh nods.

First transatlantic flight was 1919, eight years before Lindbergh. Nonstop was just a stunt, although a symbolic one.

 

[BDWoody]

The article was written on April 6 so let's see how they're doing compared to the surrounding countries using https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries link as of today.

It depends on how you are measuring success.

It is much more complicated than looking at one number...

How the world looks in about 1 year will tell you something. In the mean time, it seems everyone has their way to keep score.

Their heath system stayed within capacity, and people had the choice to stay in or not.

Doesn't seem like it's worth condemning their choice.

 

[MarcT]

FWIW... hopefully, this may be of some benefit for covid-19 patients. The Healight was developed at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center.

 

[maty]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1253726128742809600

Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article

[ Abstract

We describe the epidemiology of a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in a call center in South Korea. We obtained information on demographic characteristics by using standardized epidemiologic investigation forms. We performed descriptive analyses and reported the results as frequencies and proportions for categoric variables. Of 1,143 persons who were tested for COVID-19, a total of 97 (8.5%, 95% CI 7.0%–10.3%) had confirmed cases. Of these, 94 were working in an 11th-floor call center with 216 employees, translating to an attack rate of 43.5% (95% CI 36.9%–50.4%).

The household secondary attack rate among symptomatic case-patients was 16.2% (95% CI 11.6%– 22.0%). Of the 97 persons with confirmed COVID-19, only 4 (1.9%) remained asymptomatic within 14 days of quarantine, and none of their household contacts acquired secondary infections. Extensive contact tracing, testing all contacts, and early quarantine blocked further transmission and might be effective for containing rapid outbreaks in crowded work settings... ]

Figure 2. Floor plan of the 11th floor of building X, site of a coronavirus disease outbreak, Seoul, South Korea, 2020. Blue coloring indicates the seating places of persons with confirmed cases.

 

[Putter]

It depends on how you are measuring success.

It is much more complicated than looking at one number...

How the world looks in about 1 year will tell you something. In the mean time, it seems everyone has their way to keep score.

Their heath system stayed within capacity, and people had the choice to stay in or not.

Doesn't seem like it's worth condemning their choice.

I don't know that I necessarily condemned their choice, but if you can't use deaths as a metric of success there's no real point in doing any comparisons in relation to resuming a staged reopening. I noted that they may escape a 2nd wave, but that's much more speculative than noting current infections and deaths.

 

[williamwally]

Has anyone seen this video looking at the most recent numbers in California? I haven't gotten through the whole thing yet, but pretty interesting findings a little after where the video starts:

 

[Wes]

The Eyes have it...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...us-patients-eyes-days-after-it-left-her-nose/

 

[maty]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1253743324294516736

Meaning of the results of the serological tests

Coronavirus: a graph with three tests reveals the 8 stages of the Covid-19
[Spanish] https://www.redaccionmedica.com/sec...-test-revela-los-8-estadios-del-covid-19-9837

Coronavirus: a graph with three tests reveals the 8 stages of the Covid-19
https://translate.google.es/translate?sl=es&tl=en&u=https://www.redaccionmedica.com/secciones/sanidad-hoy/coronavirus-un-grafico-con-tres-test-revela-los-8-estadios-del-covid-19-9837

[ These are the clinical meanings based on the results:

• The three negatives: the patient does not have Covid-19.
• Positive PCR and negative immunoglobulins: window period.
• PCR positive, IgM positive and IgG negative: early stage of infection.
• The three positives: active phase of the infection.
• Positive PCR, negative IgM and positive IgG: final stage of infection.
• Negative PCR, positive IgM and negative IgG: early stage with false negative, requires confirmation PCR.
• PCR and IgM negative but IgG positive: past infection and cured.
• Negative PCR, IgM and IgG positive: evolving disease, requires confirmation PCR. ]

 

[dwkdnvr]

Has anyone seen this video looking at the most recent numbers in California? I haven't gotten through the whole thing yet, but pretty interesting findings a little after where the video starts:

I only got 10 minutes in, but he's definitely playing with the numbers. Switching back and forth between using 'full population' as the basis of some stats vs percentage of cases in others vs percentage of those tested in yet others depending on how he wants to prove his point.

We are still in the world of developing numbers, but so far all antibody tests seem to be coming round to indicating an IFR for this in the 0.35-0.8 range, whereas normal flu is below 0.1.

Now, we definitely do need to understand what is going on in California and why they are doing so well compared to basically anywhere else with major population centers. Early response? Different strain? it's not clear to me, but there clearly seems to be something different.

Edit: after watching a bit more, this guy is dangerous. He's clearly advancing an agenda. Comparing a full year of flu data to ~2 months of Covid *when we've been in lockdown for half of that time* and saying that since the flu numbers are bigger it's clearly worse and more dangerous. Unbelievable that a Dr in a position of responsibility would advance this type of argument. There are very cogent arguments available to make that we should be easing off restrictions. This doesn't appear to be one of them.

 

[Frank Dernie]

I only got 10 minutes in, but he's definitely playing with the numbers. Switching back and forth between using 'full population' as the basis of some stats vs percentage of cases in others vs percentage of those tested in yet others depending on how he wants to prove his point.

We are still in the world of developing numbers, but so far all antibody tests seem to be coming round to indicating an IFR for this in the 0.35-0.8 range, whereas normal flu is below 0.1.

Now, we definitely do need to understand what is going on in California and why they are doing so well compared to basically anywhere else with major population centers. Early response? Different strain? it's not clear to me, but there clearly seems to be something different.

Edit: after watching a bit more, this guy is dangerous. He's clearly advancing an agenda. Comparing a full year of flu data to ~2 months of Covid *when we've been in lockdown for half of that time* and saying that since the flu numbers are bigger it's clearly worse and more dangerous. Unbelievable that a Dr in a position of responsibility would advance this type of argument. There are very cogent arguments available to make that we should be easing off restrictions. This doesn't appear to be one of them.

I am not familiar with the news outlet so I checked out another video and they misquoted the living f*ck out of stuff so my guess it is another site that misquotes facts to support their reader's (and proprietors) opinion. Faking the news to taste.

 

[Liberal Democracy]

I am not familiar with the news outlet so I checked out another video and they misquoted the living f*ck out of stuff so my guess it is another site that misquotes facts to support their reader's (and proprietors) opinion. Faking the news to taste.

That's what information is for these days Frank , if it dose not suit as a means to support a narrative it likely won't get out.

One has to look at it all without prejudice, if you take the whole it becomes balanced but too many just narrow their focus thusly playing into and encouraging this trend.

You get the media you deserve, it's all our fault unfortunately.

 

[SIY]

That's what information is for these days Frank , if it dose not suit as a means to support a narrative it likely won't get out.

One has to look at it all without prejudice, if you take the whole it becomes balanced but too many just narrow their focus thusly playing into and encouraging this trend.

You get the media you deserve, it's all our fault unfortunately.

The main thing is to have a good intuitive grasp of statistics, and having read and absorbed Daryl Huff's classic book. That way, it's easier to spot the errors and omissions. Downside is that reading the news will infuriate you.

 

[Deleted member 65]

That's what information is for these days Frank , if it dose not suit as a means to support a narrative it likely won't get out.

One has to look at it all without prejudice, if you take the whole it becomes balanced but too many just narrow their focus thusly playing into and encouraging this trend.

You get the media you deserve, it's all our fault unfortunately.

Let’s be philosophical for a moment, quote from my fav Professor Jonna Bornemark:

”We live in the age of measurability and we solve our problems by splitting up, measuring and quantifying. Our mantras echo in steering documents and quality conferences: efficiency, quality assurance, evidence-based. At the same time, our lives are framed by ranking lists, grades, quality indices, heart rate monitors and pedometers. Confidence is thus set to external parameters that we intend to objectively point out the right way forward. We escape the subjective, the emotional, the temporary and the mere belief and instead count: figures, charts and bars seem so much more reliable. One result is that the space for practical knowledge, for judgment and situational knowledge has become less and less.”

 

[Xulonn]

Has anyone seen this video looking at the most recent numbers in California?

Dr. Erickson seems to be saying "let the virus run its course" and if a small percentage of the world's population dies, so be it. He correctly states that allowing the economies of the world to work and thrive is highly desirable, but doesn't seem to comprehend the extreme difficulty of balancing those two goals.

However, his discussion of "humans need exposure to pathogens to build their immune systems and keep them strong" ignores entirely the "balance" that is needed between let nature run its course and how much "sanitation" and "pathogen control and/or elimination" is necessary for the most healthy and disease-resistant populations of humans. Ath the other extreme of his logical path, I'm sure that he would not advocate doctors and operating room personel stop scrubbing and wearing gowns and masks to avoid infections. Somewhere in between is a balance, and since this is an audio forum, I will say that the music album that influenced my basic philosophy of life is "A Question of Balance" by the Moody Blues, my favorite philosophic, psychedelic rock band from waaay back.

Dr. Erickson's bias seems slanted towards sacrificing more lives to preserve other things in society and human lives that are going towards a negative trend. However, I found his putting of "increased child molestation due to tension in locked-down families" as one of his first mentioned reasons to end the lockdown a bit strange. He makes some good points, but his overall reasoning seems flawed and overly simplistic. He is a local doctor - intelligent and educated, but he is not a global pandemic expert.

As I see it, global pandemic specialists have looked at a worst case scenario and recommended precautions and reactions that may not be optimal and at times be excessive - but we should not entirely discount their advice. The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic did indeed prove the efficacy of social distancing and related personal and social responses.

As long as the human global population continues to grow, crowd together and mix vigorously and regularly via 4.3 billion air passenger trips per year, Mother Nature will have a field day by throwing challenges at us in the form of airborne viral pandemics.

 

[Liberal Democracy]

The main thing is to have a good intuitive grasp of statistics, and having read and absorbed Daryl Huff's classic book. That way, it's easier to spot the errors and omissions. Downside is that reading the news will infuriate you.

Well I read the news like i read this site ( as part of my job here ) , always asking about the hidden narrative. There's what folks say and then there's how they want you to perceive them.

It's all there if you know how to look.

 

[Liberal Democracy]

Let’s be philosophical for a moment, quote from my fav Professor Jonna Bornemark:

”We live in the age of measurability and we solve our problems by splitting up, measuring and quantifying. Our mantras echo in steering documents and quality conferences: efficiency, quality assurance, evidence-based. At the same time, our lives are framed by ranking lists, grades, quality indices, heart rate monitors and pedometers. Confidence is thus set to external parameters that we intend to objectively point out the right way forward. We escape the subjective, the emotional, the temporary and the mere belief and instead count: figures, charts and bars seem so much more reliable. One result is that the space for practical knowledge, for judgment and situational knowledge has become less and less.”

View attachment 60195

I'm concerned about a over reliance on mathematical modelling in this outbreak Vs surveying a cross section of scientific expertise in various Fields.