[No Politics] What you need to know about CoVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 [No Politics]

[kevinh]

Data on mortality from Covid 19. The curve looks like a bad flu season, ie a bit worse than the 2016-2017 flu season.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

Note the peak and the decline which follows a seasonal curve for respiratory illness.and in particluarly the heavy weighting by age. For those less than 55 absent a comorbidity they should have had no quarantine, no maks and no social distancing if we had done this there would be herd immunity. Given the heavy weighting of this particular SARS virus by sex and age tying down the entire country was/is counterproductive.

 

[maty]

Origin and evolution of pathogenic coronaviruses
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-018-0118-9.pdf

 

[LeftCoastTim]

Data on mortality from Covid 19. The curve looks like a bad flu season, ie a bit worse than the 2016-2017 flu season.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

Note the peak and the decline which follows a seasonal curve for respiratory illness.and in particluarly the heavy weighting by age. For those less than 55 absent a comorbidity they should have had no quarantine, no maks and no social distancing if we had done this there would be herd immunity. Given the heavy weighting of this particular SARS virus by sex and age tying down the entire country was/is counterproductive.

Really?

(https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)

Notice the orange seasonal flu excess death line, and how covid peak is very distinct.

And the only reason it went back down to the baseline and not going even higher is due to Americans adhering to social distancing.

The last bar on the graph is May 9. That's two weeks ago. Let's see what the summer brings.

 

[kevinh]

Really?
View attachment 64988
(https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)

Notice the orange seasonal flu excess death line, and how covid peak is very distinct.

And the only reason it went back down to the baseline and not going even higher is due to Americans adhering to social distancing.

The last bar on the graph is May 9. That's two weeks ago. Let's see what the summer brings.

Those are excess deaths from seasonal averages from all causes. The data shows a brief peak and now rapidly returning to normal. See the video from Knut Wittkowski about how Respiratory virus will peak and dissapiate this curve shows the same pattern.

https://www.aier.org/article/stand-up-for-your-rights-says-bio-statistican-knut-m-wittkowski/

Of cpurse the graph you posted is the same data with the covid data isolated from the total deaths which makes sense since they are from the same source.

 

[LeftCoastTim]

Those are excess deaths from seasonal averages from all causes. The data shows a brief peak and now rapidly returning to normal. See the video from Knut Wittkowski about how Respiratory virus will peak and dissapiate this curve shows the same pattern.

https://www.aier.org/article/stand-up-for-your-rights-says-bio-statistican-knut-m-wittkowski/

Of cpurse the graph you posted is the same data with the covid data isolated from the total deaths which makes sense since they are from the same source.

You keep linking to that same article over and over. Since you keep doing that, I will give my opinions on that article.

1. What he is saying is true. But the consequences his proposed policy would be to let hospitals get over loaded, which implies prioritized treatments (save hospital staff and the young first, let the elderly die in the hallways) and after Lombardy's experience with that scenario, most politicians across the world rejected it.

2. Furthermore, the current downward trend is NOT due to herd immunity but something totally unnatural—social distancing. Of course we may get a second or a third wave. But the math is that the total deaths of multiple waves (until the vaccine shows up) is less than scenario #1.

3. Why should I listen to an epidemiologist's opinion on the economy? What qualification does he have to opine on the impact of different strategies? Nobody has done this before. The only datapoint is the 1918 flu pandemic, where research shows suppression was better for the economy a year later. I remember back in 2008 when all the pundits were saying "unlimited QE will make dollar worth nothing, BUY GOLD!1!1!1". A minority economists agreed, the majority disagreed, and guess who won that argument?

The reality is that nobody actually knows what's going to happen. Only sure thing is a good vaccine, and the scientists working on that are silent. The doctors and nurses in the front lines are silent.

 

[kevinh]

You keep linking to that same article over and over. Since you keep doing that, I will give my opinions on that article.

1. What he is saying is true. But the consequences his proposed policy would be to let hospitals get over loaded, which implies prioritized treatments (save hospital staff and the young first, let the elderly die in the hallways) and after Lombardy's experience with that scenario, most politicians across the world rejected it.

Well NYC the hardest hit area in the Country didn't come close to overwhelming the hospital system. Javits Center and trhe Navy Hospital dhip were basicaly unused during the peak. So I would have to describe your assertion as speculation that is unproven. Due to the prevalance among Seniors and Those with Comorbifdities, you could avoid any overload with intelligent policy choices on how to isolate the at risk populations. CDC blew it on their recommendations.

2. Furthermore, the current downward trend is NOT due to herd immunity but something totally unnatural—social distancing. Of course we may get a second or a third wave. But the math is that the total deaths of multiple waves (until the vaccine shows up) is less than scenario #1.

Data to support this claim? BTW IMO the coming of summer and people getting oputside, more vitamin D is just as likely as this scenario. I agree that we haven't gotten herd immunity and will face a second wave, Hopefully we won't F'upo again and will alow herd imunity to get in place by focusing on protecting the at risk groups and letting the virus run it course among the group that isn't at risk (according to the data).

3. Why should I listen to an epidemiologist's opinion on the economy? What qualification does he have to opine on the impact of different strategies? Nobody has done this before. The only datapoint is the 1918 flu pandemic, where research shows suppression was better for the economy a year later. I remember back in 2008 when all the pundits were saying "unlimited QE will make dollar worth nothing, BUY GOLD!1!1!1". A minority economists agreed, the majority disagreed, and guess who won that argument?

So are clainming that if we had kept schools and the economy open and puit protective measures in place for Seniors avoided 30M + unemployment and the massive boprrowing it wouldn't have made any difference? OK

The reality is that nobody actually knows what's going to happen. Only sure thing is a good vaccine, and the scientists working on that are silent. The doctors and nurses in the front lines are silent.

The reality is that we know from history and the data what wil happen depending on the policy choices we make what will happen. We don't know for certain whether, when or not a vaccine will be developed.

 

[LTig]

I have to deal with a lot of white-papers. Our colloquialism is Bog Roll.

Me too, mostly those on the toilet roll in my loo.

 

[LTig]

We're some of those people - I don't feel comfortable going back to restaurants, and not sure I ever will until / unless there's a vaccine.

Still social distancing here.

I've been to a restaurant twice now since reopening, but only sitting outside, and I plan to keep it this way. You have to give address and phone number ( will be deleted after 4 weeks) and inside you have to wear a mask away from the table.

EDIT: the restaurant I've been yesterday closes end of July

 

[Wes]

Due to social distancing and other mitigations, even NYC - the hardest hit area in the US - didn't overwhelm the hospital system.

 

[maty]

First was the Spanish hymn Resistiré

Now, the Swedish version of Resistiré

 

[raistlin65]

Well NYC the hardest hit area in the Country didn't come close to overwhelming the hospital system

I'm not sure where you are getting your data, but it did come close to overwhelming some of the hospitals in NYC. Medical personnel in hospitals describe being greatly overworked, and many caught the virus because their hospitals were unequipped to protect them from the COVID-19 patients.

Moreover, they were only able to handle it by canceling all elective surgeries.

Let's not forget that there were many COVID-19 deaths from people who died at home. Either out of fear, or because they were turned away from the hospital because the hospitals were near capacity.

So not a good example to support your point.

 

[Putter]

I'm not sure where you are getting your data, but it did come close to overwhelming some of the hospitals in NYC. Medical personnel in hospitals describe being greatly overworked, and many caught the virus because their hospitals were unequipped to protect them from the COVID-19 patients.

Moreover, they were only able to handle it by canceling all elective surgeries.

Let's forget that there were many COVID-19 deaths from people who died at home. Either out of fear, or because they were turned away from the hospital because the hospitals were near capacity.

So not a good example to support your point.

I don't think you're responding to me. I only said that the curve was flattening in NYS.

 

[Wes]

it was kevinh - not sure which dog he has in this fight

 

[MediumRare]

it was kevinh - not sure which dog he has in this fight

Who? Never heard of him.

 

[raistlin65]

I don't think you're responding to me. I only said that the curve was flattening in NYS.

Sorry about that. I messed up trying to edit in tiny phone input window.

Edited and fixed.

 

[BsdKurt]

Due to social distancing and other mitigations, even NYC - the hardest hit area in the US - didn't overwhelm the hospital system.

Please provide your source of data for this statement please?

A quote from a politically slanted news site - one that is not friendly to NY politics I would add - scroll to the very end:
“Northwell Health said three of its medical centers were so overtaxed at one point they had to put some ICU patients in hallways. To relieve pressure, the company eventually sent more than 1,700 COVID-19 patients to nursing homes.”

Pre-lockdown, NY, like most countries, was doubling cases every 2 days. So lets say that our lockdown came two days later. What do you think it would be like here? What I envision is a death spike twice as large as what we experienced, which would have been quite tragic and massively overwhelmed our hospitals, nursing homes and temporary facilities that were setup.

It is very easy to spin things into political hot potato’s when people ignore the facts of the situation. NYC and surrounding areas very narrowly avoided overwhelming our hospitals. That’s also because the hospitals were under orders to double bed capacity, I should add.

 

[Willem]

Here in the Netherlands the number of hospital admissions is down to single digits for the whole country and deaths have also declined to about two dozen a day and are obviously expected to decline into single digits pretty soon as well. By now there is no longer any excess mortality. In fact last week showed mortality below what is normal for this time of year.
I think we owe much of this to a combination of some luck, a good public health infrastructure, a science based government policy, clear communication, and consensus politics. Let's hope we can maintain common sense and rationality even though here too the extreme right is slowly beginning to raise its anti science voice.
And we should carefully ramp up the economy, focussing on what has greatest macro economic benefits rather than on what is most fun (the right wants bars etc open as a priority). One sector that greatly benefits is bicycle sales and bike repairs. Now that people feel uneasy about public transportation and expect that cars will potentially overwhelm inner city roads many realize the benefits of cycling. Bike stores are selling large numbers and factories are beginning to run up against supply problems. Parts supply from Asia is not back to normal. But many people still have old bikes in their sheds so they can make do for now.

 

[RayDunzl]

News has Hong Kong back in protest mode...

Live while it lasts:

 

[maty]

The European countries with large exchanges with China and northern Italy that have suffered the least from the pandemic must have been due to the rapid response of the governments. A week of delay in reacting marked the answer by avoiding the collapse of the health system. It was not a matter of luck but rather a quick decision-making in the face of a dangerous virus of which little was known.

 

[Willem]

Authoritarianism is sadly on the rise in many places.