Probably depends on use. For my use, I tend to think actives are more reliable, simply because they often protect themselves from damage. I've never had an active speaker fail, but I have had 2 pairs of passive speakers fail. Both failed due to me pushing them too hard while under the influence of alcohol
. The worst that happens with my actives is that I get a little red light.
For someone who never listens super loud, I think you're probably right that passives will last longer.
*Edit: just realized I actually have had 1 active fail, but it was a subwoofer, not a speaker. It was a Dayton Audio 10". Don't remember the model.