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Major issues with Tesla Model 3

Sal1950

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Sal1950

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oivavoi

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Just to be clear, efficiency of electric cars is unlikely to increase much. There simply isn't much more efficiency possible with the car running on electricity. Battery size, weight and energy storage can be improved and will have the largest impact. Conventional IC cars could use less energy if they were built totally of carbon fiber due to greatly reduced weight. Yet that mostly hasn't happened due to costs.

I have one friend who does r&d on battery technology, and claims to have found solutions which make them 50 percent more effective, by using other materials than today (which means that they either last longer or can become smaller). He currently manufactures things in related areas (technology for solar panels and other stuff), and is optimistic. And I have another friend who does research on carbon technology, and who plans to make the world's lightest (electric) car. He currently manufactures electric bikes, and is also optimistic that his invention (which is being supported by investors in China) can work.

You never know, of course - there have been lots of inventions which look good in the lab, but which fail when getting implemented, or who work properly all the way to the end product, but nevertheless fail commercially. But I don't think these two guys are alone. There are probably lots of people all over the world who are engaged in the same kind of R&D. So I do think we'll see some major inventions and technological break-throughs the next 20-30 years.
 

Wombat

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Claims are dime-a-dozen. :eek: Results are more discussable.;)
 

svart-hvitt

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I have one friend who does r&d on battery technology, and claims to have found solutions which make them 50 percent more effective, by using other materials than today (which means that they either last longer or can become smaller). He currently manufactures things in related areas (technology for solar panels and other stuff), and is optimistic. And I have another friend who does research on carbon technology, and who plans to make the world's lightest (electric) car. He currently manufactures electric bikes, and is also optimistic that his invention (which is being supported by investors in China) can work.

You never know, of course - there have been lots of inventions which look good in the lab, but which fail when getting implemented, or who work properly all the way to the end product, but nevertheless fail commercially. But I don't think these two guys are alone. There are probably lots of people all over the world who are engaged in the same kind of R&D. So I do think we'll see some major inventions and technological break-throughs the next 20-30 years.

On aggregate, venture investments have been a miserable ride (metaphor). Most promising ideas become broken dreams.

This is reality. And I prefer being an optimist.
 

Wombat

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On aggregate, venture investments have been a miserable ride (metaphor). Most promising ideas become broken dreams.

This is reality. And I prefer being an optimist.

'Optimists'(dreamers) need a 'pessimist'(grounded) to limit their excesses.

If you are both, you could be a successful entreprenuer.
 
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oivavoi

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On aggregate, venture investments have been a miserable ride (metaphor). Most promising ideas become broken dreams.

This is reality. And I prefer being an optimist.

You're fully right about this. And the battery guy I spoke about knows this better than anyone, after doing R&D and manufacturing for 30 years. On balance, I'm fairly optimistic about the battery technology, because it's a very applied and manufacturing-oriented lab which has brought several successful patents to the market already, and the technology is so mature that it's already being tested by one of the largest EV manufacturers.

As to the light carbon car, I wouldn't bet any money on it, given that it's a young inventor who doesn't have experience with large-scale production. He makes kick-ass electric bikes though.
 

svart-hvitt

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You're fully right about this. And the battery guy I spoke about knows this better than anyone, after doing R&D and manufacturing for 30 years. On balance, I'm fairly optimistic about the battery technology, because it's a very applied and manufacturing-oriented lab which has brought several successful patents to the market already, and the technology is so mature that it's already being tested by one of the largest EV manufacturers.

As to the light carbon car, I wouldn't bet any money on it, given that it's a young inventor who doesn't have experience with large-scale production. He makes kick-ass electric bikes though.

The problem often often overlooked is ramp-up, production in facilities worth billions of dollars. The megaproject investments mean it is difficult to make a product out of an idea. And the distance between «idea labs» (say MIT) and the production capacity and production know-how has become longer. Distance still matters, at least in the pre-production phase.

Everyone talks about innovation these days. Fact is, productivity is going lower and lower.

So there’s a gap between perception and reality.

One should look at who’s pushing the ideas that make these perceptions flourish in an otherwise stagnating economy.
 

Sal1950

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We have a great proven clean tech in ICE (internal combustion hydrogen) that isn't being properly developed in deference to pie in the sky electric. Rage and fads aren't a proper road taken for future energy needs. IMHO
 

Wombat

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We have a great proven clean tech in ICE (internal combustion hydrogen) that isn't being properly developed in deference to pie in the sky electric. Rage and fads aren't a proper road taken for future energy needs. IMHO

As I posted earlier I think that hydrogen fuel lends itself to centralised re-fuelling facilities. Thus it is return-to-base self driving vehicles(hydrogen) vs privately, or otherwise, owned EVs and much more numerous charging facilities. Economics will prevail for the system that entrenches itself first. Such is capitalism. o_O
 

svart-hvitt

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We have a great proven clean tech in ICE (internal combustion hydrogen) that isn't being properly developed in deference to pie in the sky electric. Rage and fads aren't a proper road taken for future energy needs. IMHO

The whole «do-good-industry» (often energy related, environmental and socially responsible etc.) is a hijacked one. It is often so easy to see that the emperor is naked and that someone is trying to sell you his fashionable clothes.

I am amazed how easily people get sucked into believing there’s real «clothes» there.

And this is, in fact, highly relevant on ASR because there’s a link between «audiophilia» and the «do-good» mentality.

(The link is of course the human mind that can be led to believe in anything. «Be led» is not always appropriate use of words because we often choose ourselves to build our own «reality»).
 

Dismayed

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They need to ‘charge ‘ while being driven.. so maybe some kind of conducting from a device imbedded in the road ..

Relying on the energy Carried around in a ‘battery’ is bollocks ( excuse the high level scientific terminology).

Agreed. It makes sense to electrify the Interstates, and to rely on batteries for short local trips.
 

Dismayed

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The whole «do-good-industry» (often energy related, environmental and socially responsible etc.) is a hijacked one. It is often so easy to see that the emperor is naked and that someone is trying to sell you his fashionable clothes.

I am amazed how easily people get sucked into believing there’s real «clothes» there.

And this is, in fact, highly relevant on ASR because there’s a link between «audiophilia» and the «do-good» mentality.

(The link is of course the human mind that can be led to believe in anything. «Be led» is not always appropriate use of words because we often choose ourselves to build our own «reality»).

So do you prefer the good 'ole days before the EPA? Breathing the air pollution in LA was the equivalent of smoking 3 packs a day, and the Cuyahoga River fire must have been a lovely site! Yes, life was so much easier when I could just screw my neighbors.
 
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Dismayed

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I have one friend who does r&d on battery technology, and claims to have found solutions which make them 50 percent more effective, by using other materials than today (which means that they either last longer or can become smaller). He currently manufactures things in related areas (technology for solar panels and other stuff), and is optimistic. And I have another friend who does research on carbon technology, and who plans to make the world's lightest (electric) car. He currently manufactures electric bikes, and is also optimistic that his invention (which is being supported by investors in China) can work.

You never know, of course - there have been lots of inventions which look good in the lab, but which fail when getting implemented, or who work properly all the way to the end product, but nevertheless fail commercially. But I don't think these two guys are alone. There are probably lots of people all over the world who are engaged in the same kind of R&D. So I do think we'll see some major inventions and technological break-throughs the next 20-30 years.

You may be interested in this MIT spin-off that isn't far from my home. They are making lithium metal batteries with solid electrolytes. They are safer than lithium ion batteries, and they have 2x the energy density.

http://www.solidenergysystems.com/
 

jhaider

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What is the global purpose of EV economy if it doesn’t save energy?

Locally, where I live, I am very happy though for EVs due to better air and noise.

You don't think other localities benefit from better air and less noise?

Also, the range stuff is completely overblown. My wife has a 2011 Civic. She bought it new. It has about 35k miles. Her average daily commute: 2 miles each way. Mine is much longer: 2.6 miles each way. Our longest drive ever has been from Atlanta to Hilton Head! Anything longer, we fly.
 

Wombat

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You don't think other localities benefit from better air and less noise?

Also, the range stuff is completely overblown. My wife has a 2011 Civic. She bought it new. It has about 35k miles. Her average daily commute: 2 miles each way. Mine is much longer: 2.6 miles each way. Our longest drive ever has been from Atlanta to Hilton Head! Anything longer, we fly.


I think you are in a lucky minority of car owners mileage wise. Now that I am retired I travel mostly locally. I live in a rural area and occasional visits to my city-based family and friends means a trip of over 130 miles each way.

I can't economically justify replacing my 2001 model 6 cyl. Ford sedan(LPG fuelled) with a recent year model let alone a more expensive electric/hybrid model.

Do-gooder inner-city and cyclist groups are pushing for a ban on cars over 10 y.o. using safety as a reason, claiming young people drive old cars and rank higher in accident statistics. Of course young driver inexperience and a green agenda are not spoken about in the arguments being put forward. The vested interest of the auto. industry isn't mentioned either.

Of course, these groups won't pay for the cost of replacing older vehicles.
 

DonH56

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My drive to work is about 20 miles each way. It takes about 25 minutes early in the morning (I am at work by 6 am) and anywhere from 40 to 60+ minutes in the afternoon when I leave depending on weather and traffic. No chargers in sight. So should be fine with electric but OTOH our rural power delivery is already spotty enough that we added a backup generator a few years ago (at considerable expense) and I'm not sure it has enough margin for a car charger (it is a large whole-house unit so maybe it does). Hate to call in to work to say I can't come in because we lost power for an hour or two.

And of course there is the argument of the environmental cost of making all the electricity. I've looked into solar panels a few times but always backed off because the initial cost is so high and the payoff period so long (typically $20k+ USD and 10+ years when I've looked). The state legislature has tried to pass additional taxes, and more recently "fees" so they don't have to get voter approval for a tax hike, to subsidize clean energy but they have so far failed. I've worked hard for everything I have, many long hours, despite what the politicians say and am tired of being told I "didn't earn that" and must be forced to subsidize every "righteous" cause "for the good of XYZ".

Having spent many years in R&D I understand the problem pretty well. There is intense pressure to bring things to market before they are really ready, whether to meet ROI goals or to "save the planet". Things good and bad result; a new thing may come out early and become popular and self-sustaining, but seems equally likely it will fail, potentially after lots of money and effort. Actually new-business statistics heavily favor failure. R&D funding has been slashed in this country by both government and the private sector so applied research and development is harder to do.
 

iridium

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