Is COVID strategy moving towards herd-immunity?!

[North_Sky]

About 20yr. ago I typed "why don't people lay back and look for shapes in the clouds anymore?" into Google and got one hit from a very nice young lady in the midwest. This is why I insist on having skylights in my home. One of my fondest memories is coming home from my first year at college and sitting on my a** in a lounge chair staring at the clouds with my mother yammering at me about something I didn't give a s*** about.

Skylights, very good; watching the moon and the stars @ night, the clouds and the birds in daytime while listening to iCloud Music.

 

[North_Sky]

Something to digest because some opinions vary, even among some experts ...
• https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-decline-coronavirus-deaths-cases-2020-9

And, it happens to be on topic, 200% about that.

 

[lashto]

Something to digest because some opinions vary, even among some experts ...
• https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-decline-coronavirus-deaths-cases-2020-9
And, it happens to be on topic, 200% about that.

AFAICS, only one of the mentioned reasons is enough to explain the entire evolution of the Swedish death rate:

Residents of elderly care homes account for nearly half of Sweden's coronavirus deaths, so curbing transmission in those facilities in particular seems to have caused deaths to fall significantly.
...
"We calculated on more people being sick, but the death toll really came as a surprise to us," Tegnell said on the show in May, adding, "we really thought our elderly homes would be much better at keeping this disease outside of them."

Once they took care of that (better security protocols, moratorium on visiting, etc), the numbers went down significantly. Not much to do with herd immunity or Sweden's no-quarantine strategy, just some serious mistakes in handling the nursing homes.
As about herd immunity, they are nowhere near that:

a national study showed that just 6.1% of people had developed coronavirus antibodies by late May.

 

[Willem]

The same roughly applies to the Dutch situation: a large proportion of deaths occurred in care homes and the like that were ill prepared for this. Once that was under control, and obviously combined with other measures, mortality rapidly went down. It is all the more unfortunate, therefore, that now that the infection rate is rapidly rising again care home staff are receiving death threats from those who oppose any restrictions. These activists really are a dangerous and loony bunch.
Like Sweden, we never got close to herd immunity, even though we only had a partial lockdown.

 

[DChenery]

Just to add a little clarity to the situation, the statistics as released by the Swedish authorities
(https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa)

 

[DChenery]

To summarize the Swedish Numbers

 

[Willem]

Those are certainly depressing mortality numbers, although still a bit better than the USA. The Netherlands have 1.7 times more inhabitants than Sweden, and only just more deaths from corona. On the other hand, maybe we failed to classify many deaths as corona deaths.
On the economic side, our GDP has shrunk by just over 5%. That is bad, but it could be a lot worse. The question now is how many companies will survive a second round of restrictive measures.

 

[North_Sky]

In regards to global health ...
Yes, airborne transmission is happening. The CDC needs to set the record straight.
_____

An article (Sweden herd immunity) ... anyone heard of him?
• https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/

 

[North_Sky]

In Canada (my country, where I live), we are in the second wave.
This is no joke...the stats, the graphs, number of new cases, recklessness, data, ...everything is crystal clear.

The Fall season started two days ago, the flu season starts in October and lasts till the end of March, and sometimes end of April...so for the next 6-7 months solid.

In the Americas we simply don't have what it takes...discipline like some Asian countries have. We don't have that, what we have is just the opposite...MY car is bigger and faster than yours. ...Just an example as a figure of speech.

 

[PierreV]

FWIW: about airborne transmission, the discussion is a bit more complex than how it is summarized in the general media and understood by the public: it's a question of definition and ultimately protective protocols, which ends up having consequences on funding, costs, responsibilities and insurances. Note: I am in the "airborne" camp if there is such a thing but the overall discussion is more nuanced than, for example, the previous "miracle" drugs discussions.

Also, since there have been discussions here about "the virus somehow changing", here are a few useful links

http://cov.genometracker.org/
https://genome.ucsc.edu/covid19.html
https://www.gisaid.org/ (not as visually nice but best data imho)

and one fairly recent paper on geographical variations

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.01800/full

it is an evolving story, here is an example of a reinfection by two different strains
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32840608/ which, by itself, remains anecdotal but shows that full genome sequencing is frequently and quickly done. The chances of the virus "changing" and us not noticing are low but there will definitely be a small delay before the info hits the general news sites if it happens.

 

[lashto]

An article (Sweden herd immunity) ... anyone heard of him?
• https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/

Interesting. Never heard of that guy but he sounds like a reliable source.
That T-Cell immunity sounds encouraging, some extra details. Particularly the "herd immunity threshold" box from the last link is pretty interesting, might be that a percent much lower than 50% will work. That would be very good news.

 

[Neutron]

Interesting. Never heard of that guy but he sounds like a reliable source.
That T-Cell immunity sounds encouraging, some extra details. Particularly the "herd immunity threshold" box is pretty interesting, might be that a percent much lower than 50% will work. That would be very good news.

I think herd immunity is basically asking everyone to play Russian roulette. This isn't the first thing a responsible gov should come up with in the beginning, but that's what we saw.

 

[Harmonie]

About 20yr. ago I typed "why don't people lay back and look for shapes in the clouds anymore?" into Google and got one hit from a very nice young lady in the midwest. This is why I insist on having skylights in my home. One of my fondest memories is coming home from my first year at college and sitting on my a** in a lounge chair staring at the clouds with my mother yammering at me about something I didn't give a s*** about.

That's exactly it - I was thinking a similar thing this morning:

How come people listen to music with cans ?
The only place I use these are the NC one's on the airplane and it's not a "listening experience" but cancelling the noise with some musical perfume.
I admit that I was among the early ones to walk with a Walkman on the Champs-Elysées exactly 40 years ago. But you can't call this listening to music.

A nicely set pair of speakers in an adequate room is the only way I can think of ... still ...

Haha, there is no "dislike button" here, I'm relieved ....

 

[leeroy 85032]

In Canada (my country, where I live), we are in the second wave.
This is no joke...the stats, the graphs, number of new cases, recklessness, data, ...everything is crystal clear.

View attachment 84599
The Fall season started two days ago, the flu season starts in October and lasts till the end of March, and sometimes end of April...so for the next 6-7 months solid.

In the Americas we simply don't have what it takes...discipline like some Asian countries have. We don't have that, what we have is just the opposite...MY car is bigger and faster than yours. ...Just an example as a figure of speech.

at least the Canadian govt is smart enough to stimulate the economy.. too many rich people pulling strings here in the US.. really rich people never care about economic downturns , they only affect them on paper....

 

[North_Sky]

FWIW: about airborne transmission, the discussion is a bit more complex than how it is summarized in the general media and understood by the public: it's a question of definition and ultimately protective protocols, which ends up having consequences on funding, costs, responsibilities and insurances. Note: I am in the "airborne" camp if there is such a thing but the overall discussion is more nuanced than, for example, the previous "miracle" drugs discussions.

Also, since there have been discussions here about "the virus somehow changing", here are a few useful links

http://cov.genometracker.org/
https://genome.ucsc.edu/covid19.html
https://www.gisaid.org/ (not as visually nice but best data imho)

and one fairly recent paper on geographical variations

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.01800/full

it is an evolving story, here is an example of a reinfection by two different strains
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32840608/ which, by itself, remains anecdotal but shows that full genome sequencing is frequently and quickly done. The chances of the virus "changing" and us not noticing are low but there will definitely be a small delay before the info hits the general news sites if it happens.

I posted this link prior ... from CBC Canada ...
• https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/is-covid-19-airborne-the-cdc-said-yes-then-no-1.5734929

This one is from ABC, USA ...
• https://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-w...ne-transmission-coronavirus/story?id=73150605

This one, from WHO International (older date) ...
• https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations#:~:text=According to current evidence,,transmission was not reported.
_____

Me I am not a pandemic expert, I'm just a general public person.
I search for the truth in health, in wealth, in arts, in audio.
I'm a nobody, no secret, no classified files, just a solid education and down-to-earth background. My studies were based on real sciences, not Mickey mouse from Disneyland. I love entertainment like anyone else but this COVID-19 pandemic is no entertainment.

I agree with you that this virus is an evolving study each and everyday.
Updates are very tough to keep up because scientists, doctors, nurses, vaccine researchers, expert epidemiologists, ...the full shebang of world experts and not know as much as you and I depending of our level of knowledge, studies, readings, and what's underground, and what shall not released to the general public, and only what the people in real charge shouldn't say or would.

Each country is also different, and we see a lack of unity in all countries cooperation and it affects us all. Me I think it's not fair @ all, nobody asked for that, we should have known much earlier right from the beginning. I also believe the seriousness of the implications, the grave mistakes made and repeated.

Who knows exactly how many people are infected worldwide when you can't even get tested in your own neighborhood. The numbers we have is over 31 million and every 3 to 4 days we have a million more. Some experts estimated that it could be more than ten times 31 million. How long till one billion infected?

The number of departed worldwide; Sunday coming up they'll give us a number...one million. Is that number accurate enough? How long till we know for sure; 6 months, 12 months, 2 years, never? ...Like in 1918-19.

Today we have supercomputers in the palm of our hands, super intelligent devices in our pockets, and yet we are in a pandemic. Where are going, what drives us, what values we value the most?

Numbers are people, here with COVID-19, lives or real people.
When you die there's nothing left, no money, no Ferrari, no mansion, no nothing but people fighting over whatever little no importance you have materially accumulated.
They'll fight to death to acquire those goods. And children are dying every single day of starvation by huge numbers, children lives...those numbers.

So, what is it; airborne or not airborne, and why this big change from the CDC here in the USA, and why WHO and China love affair, and why Taiwan, and why Russian vaccine, and why all the poison in the world, the rats, the bats and all that jazz...why?
Don't answer it, it has zero to do with herd immunity, zero to do with world collapsing, zero to do with control of power, zero to do with people dying, zero to do with the economy, zero to do with losing your job, losing your identity, losing your belief, losing your faith, losing your dreams, losing your freedom, losing your rights, ...and everything to do with man's own downfall taking with him everyone else.

We are in a big mess, there is no turning back.
A vaccine? Maybe in April 2021. Is that going to solve all our problems? Of course not.
A mask? It sure helps in slowing down the spreading.
Desanitizing surfaces? Same as above.
Cleaner air (getting rid of airborne particles)? Same as above.
Self distancing (no public gathetings)? Same as above.
Wash with soap our hands? Same as above.
Eating properly, exercising properly, sleeping properly, living properly, ...? Same as above.

I am a nobody, we're all in it together...we are all somebody important, the human race.

 

[North_Sky]

Thank you Pierre for those links, your valuable contribution.

 

[North_Sky]

at least the Canadian govt is smart enough to stimulate the economy.. too many rich people pulling strings here in the US.. really rich people never care about economic downturns , they only affect them on paper....

I see some good in my country, and I also see some opposite of good.
I think there's good and bad in every country...more or less in one or another direction (percentage).

A pandemic is not the affair of one country only, it's the affair of the entire world, the responsibility of each and all countries.

It also makes you realize the huge gap, the inequality in sciences, in power, in financial freedom, in starvation, in salvation, in divisions of classes, in abuse of humanity, in the clashes over supremacy of technology and space.

 

[Thomas_A]

About 1-2 % of all tested "common colds" appear to be covid-19. If covid-19 would have been true airborne and spread through asymptomatic route in a significant way, I would expect that covid-19 would dominate over all other common colds by now.

 

[leeroy 85032]

I see some good in my country, and I also see some opposite of good.
I think there's good and bad in every country...more or less in one or another (percentage).

A pandemic is not the affair of one country only, it's the affair of the entire world, the responsibility of each and all countries.

It also makes you realize the huge gap, the inequality in sciences, in power, in financial freedom, in starvation, in salvation, in divisions of classes, in abuse of humanity, in the clashes over supremacy of technology and space.

agreed.. the one thing that is overwhelmingly obvious here is: the 1st stimulus bill bolstered the economy .. it's getting time to shit or get off the pot as far as another stimulus bill here and the republican senate is waiting for a miracle so they don't have to pass another "socialist bill" .. they are masters of distraction.. we are talking about everything but the economy here right now , and we may be only weeks from another massive uptick in the virus and another shutdown.. and we still have 15-20 % unemployment and all the protections of the 1st bill are about gone.. so i'm gonna guess poor folks in Canada aren't feeling near as paranoid about their future as we low income people are here...

 

[Wes]

About 1-2 % of all tested "common colds" appear to be covid-19. If covid-19 would have been true airborne and spread through asymptomatic route in a significant way, I would expect that covid-19 would dominate over all other common colds by now.

can you explain how this makes sense?