is anyone affected by the rampocalypse? gpupocalypse? nandpocalypse?

[MCH]

Get ready as well for the Capacitorpocalypse!

AI drives MLCC shortage

The rapid advancement of AI is driving a shift in the delivery of key components, particularly MLCC ceramic capacitors.

www.eenewseurope.com

 

[Honken]

The problem with waiting is that relief won't come until 2028. It takes a while to ramp up capacity.

2028 sounds optimistic considering that the supply for 2027 is already sold out. Considering the incentives to keep prices high, why would we fare any better in 2028?

Personally, I put some hope in CXMT - but I don't know how much they'll be able to ramp up production - though they are on an astronomical rise currently.

 

[amper42]

We usually think a trend will last longer than it actually does.

The entire AI industry is being funded by circular financing. Once that gravy train breaks and the 30 billion in spending per quarter on facility and hardware is significantly reduced the economy will feel the contraction. Memory prices will drop. It's just a matter of time. You can't maintain this type of spending long term when the main buyers are simply other AI related companies with little dollars received in comparison from end user sales.

 

[Fongus]

I pretty much maxed out my gaming PC upgrades up until last year so I'm good for the next few years or so.

I kept the old parts as spares just in case.

 

[TonyJZX]

Nvidia has secured $500 bn in funding from six massive global finance and private equity firms: Apollo Global Management, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield Asset Management, Goldman Sachs, and KKR.

This allows any datacenter to be built with the nvidia hardware and that hardware is what is now considered the B&M for financing.

They also bought AI startup called... "Groq"

yeah you heard that right... there's now a Groq and a Grok

AMD bought Taalus who are doing fixed function AI accelerators.

Both of them are supposed to be $20 bn each, which is paper clip money.

If you want to look historical parallels the US bailed out GM Ford Dodge to the tune of $25 bil.

The banks and insurance took $700 bil.

The funny thing at the time is the auto industry took all the public hits while they paid it all back... early and with interest.

What about the banks lol? And so now AI is probably on a path to exceed $2 tril. with something like $1.65 already spent... and so it truly is TOO BIG TO FAIL

and with that in the near future say 2028-9 with hopefully FIVE ram companies (inc. CXMT and YMTC) and a whole bunch of China upstarts I dont see any path where prices come even close to how they were in 2025...

 

[Ruediger]

Wow, and I thought I'm hoarding too much stuff with my 40(ish) TB

Net data is around 170TB as those boxes are one live and one backup.

I don't like to waste space and do a lot of encoding video and audio into efficient, transparent codecs and mkv containers. It's also that once you digitized a sizeable collection and put a lot of work into a nice library that is used by the whole family, things get more important and also need a backup.

But 360TB of drives is really nothing for IT nerds. I used to participate in PoST crypto for the last 5 years with space of ~2.5PB. That's more exciting to manage. Kind of touches the limit what you can do in a house without special accomodations for power, cooling and noise though.

 

[amirm]

2028 sounds optimistic considering that the supply for 2027 is already sold out. Considering the incentives to keep prices high, why would we fare any better in 2028?

These are the estimates I have seen from execs from memory companies. I am assuming they need about 3 years to ramp up new production. Mind you, 2028 is stabilization period, not a return to bargain prices of the past.

Personally, I put some hope in CXMT - but I don't know how much they'll be able to ramp up production - though they are on an astronomical rise currently.

Any hope for that seems to be out the window as they have become greedy and already charging more even though they have one or two generation old foundry. I heard their production is already spoken for as well by computer companies so that relief doesn't seem to be making much of a difference.

 

[amirm]

Darn... Bought a 1 TByte CF Express card for my camera a year ago for $320. Went to buy another: it is $728!!!

 

[Soundproof]

For a short while, until recently, Apple was actually quite competitive for their spec upgrades. Never saw that one coming

 

[amper42]

Apple is an entirely different story. They had long term contracts and thought SSD prices would drop again by renegotiation. When that wasn't in the cards they acted like the issue was unforeseen and over reacted with huge price increases. It's going to lower their sales forecast and kill some of their products.

For example, one day AppleTV 4K 128GB is $139 at SamsClub, the next it's $249. No way did the 128GB cost Apple another $100. But they got greedy and it will reduce sales dramatically for that device. Many other options are available. Or when the cost of a MacBook Pro increases by $400, purchases are delayed. Later, we will see sales prices to move unsold inventory. Meanwhile, the new CEO has to come in and handle the problem.